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Latest UK Polling May 19, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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And yes, the BLP increase appears to be more than a momentary blip.

Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor came out today, with topline figures of CON 49%(nc), LAB 34%(+8), LDEM 7%(-6), UKIP 2%(-2). Changes are since their April poll, conducted just after Theresa May has called the general election. Fieldwork was Monday to Wednesday and tabs are here.
In this morning’s Times we also had voting intention figures from YouGov, which showed topline voting intention figures of CON 45%(-4), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 6%(+3). Changes are from the YouGov/Sunday Times poll at the weekend. Fieldwork was on Tuesday and Wednesday and tabs are here.

Again, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. This is all about damage limitation. UK Polling Report makes some pertinent points in the link above. But… fingers crossed that the Tories will have the shine taken off their seeming inevitable victory.

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Comments»

1. Ed - May 19, 2017

This is quite a good analysis from YouGov of where Labour’s support is coming from:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/18/how-labours-support-holding/

It’s still quite fragile, and they’ll be doing well to get 30% or a little more on the day, but there’s a little more room for optimism than seemed likely when the election was called.

Another story emerging from the polls is that the Lib Dems haven’t seen much of a revival at all. It’s hard not to feel a bit of schadenfreude after months of boasting from Farron and his cheerleaders about how they were ‘the real opposition’ (they even made a complete balls of their manifesto launch—so much for all the talk of how much slicker their press operation was).

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2017/05/why-has-it-all-gone-wrong-liberal-democrats

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irishelectionliterature - May 19, 2017

Farron’s personal views didn’t do the Liberals any favours at all, add in the fact that he’s a gobshite and for all their “we’re the Remain Party” they haven’t exactly been falling over themselves in standing down to back fellow “Remain” candidates.
I imagine most people, no matter their view on Brexit, feel Brexit is a fait accompli so their anticipated anti Brexit Liberal surge won’t happen.
Whats keeping the Tories up is the complete collapse of UKIP and the hoovering up of their vote.

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WorldbyStorm - May 19, 2017

“I imagine most people, no matter their view on Brexit, feel Brexit is a fait accompli so their anticipated anti Brexit Liberal surge won’t happen.”

+1

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Ed - May 19, 2017

If they were even sincere about their ‘anti-Brexit at all costs’ line, I could respect that, although I wouldn’t agree with them. But it’s all been so transparently insincere from the start, just a matter of trying to reboot their brand after the 2010-15 coalition. If the numbers added up after the election, they’d go into government with the Tories in a heartbeat, and all the anti-Brexit stuff would go the way of their pledge against tuition fees (‘with a heavy heart we must … the national interest … while we may regret …’ etc.).

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2. GW - May 19, 2017

I had kind of a gut feeling that the Tories were running out of steam with ‘Brexit, Brexit, Brexit’ and ‘Corbyn the Marxist monster’.

Is a Tory majority of under 100 possible? Under 50? That would certainly be less than a ringing endorsement of May and strengthen Corbyn’s hand within the Labour party.

But early days and I’m sure the Tories and their media have a few dirty tricks up their sleeves.

The Tory manifesto makes it clear that for them Brexit is driven by anti-immigration, and that they intend to leave the customs union leaving the border through Ireland prima facie as a hard customs and immigration border.

They don’t give a gnat’s fart about the North, much less the South of Ireland.

Oh and human rights are optional.

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3. Dermot O Connor - May 20, 2017

Polls still tightening, with 3 weeks to go.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9886

ORB for the Telegraph
CON 46%(nc)
LAB 34%(+3)
LDEM 7%(-1)
UKIP 7%(+1)

Opinium
CON 46%(-1)
LAB 33%(+1)
LDEM 8%(nc)
UKIP 5%(nc).

Bearing in mind that Miliband’s losing margin was 7%, these polls are showing that 20% + lead now down to 12 or 13, again, with 3 weeks left.

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An Cathaoirleach - May 20, 2017

There are a number of separate elections going on. YouGov had a separate Scottish poll showing the LP on just 19%.

Taking the ORB poll, recalculating the figures for England & Wales, which account for 89%, would suggest that the figures for Conservatives are on 49.1% & Labour on 36.5%.

In 2015, the Conservatives received 41% of the vote in England & 28% in Wales. This suggests that there is a swing of over 9% to them.

Labour received 31.6% & 37.9% in England & Wales respectively. This suggests a swing of around 3.5%.

In a FPTP system, this suggests a very large Conservative majority in England & Wales plus perhaps 9 or 10 seats in Scotland.

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