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Today’s poll. Nothing is so popular as Kenny’s leaving of us. And… the (FG) members are restless…and not just them… May 26, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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So, a poll. From the IT no less. And in it the figures are:

FG 30% (+2), FF 27% (-2), LP 5% (+1), SF 20% (-1), IND/OTHER 18% (NC).

In that latter GP 2%, SOLIDARITY – PBP 3%, SD 1%,I4C 2%, IA 2%, OTHERS 2%, NON PARTY IND 5%.

I guess it depends how you view this. In one way this is good news for FG, though all within the MOE. Though not the first poll from all poll providers to show them ahead of the old enemy IIRC. On the other 2% and within the MOE seems small reward for pushing their best and brightest, supposedly, into the public spotlight for a couple of weeks now.

Meanwhile Enda Kenny… his satisfaction rating has gone up from 31 to 43%! He should depart every day! Those dissatisfied with the government still outweigh by quite some distance those satisfied with it and so on and so forth.

Seems the Fine Gael membership is less than gruntled at the coronation of Leo Varadkar.

Having spoken with the party’s core supporters in five constituencies: Longford-Westmeath, Roscommon-Galway; Galway East; Tipperary; and Kildare South, it is clear that the new election system is seen as a mixed blessing by the grassroots.
Everyone accepts that an election involving party members is a good idea, but there has been blowback too at the prospect that everything will be sealed up for Varadkar before they even get to attend a hustings, never mind vote.

And yet where is the surprise? No one likes being electoral fodder. And there has been something unseemly about the manner in which Varadkar positioned his big guns on his rival’s territory quite so early in the contest.

If he is elected Varadkar will have to negotiate strong currents in places afterwards as there is a strong possibility the three electoral colleges will diverge – with councillors and the rank-and-file siding with Coveney and a majority of TDs and Senators favouring Varadkar.
In some places it is clear that a significant gulf has emerged between the three elements.

But I think it goes a bit further, I think the shock and awe demonstrates a problem which isn’t confined to FG. It is the idea that elected reps are where the action is, that that is the most important element in all this and that members and others are in a sense purely a backdrop against which political activity is played out.

It’s a very specific and media driven view of political activity – top-down, elitist, disinterested in broader constituencies and one where the only thing that matters can sometimes seem to be the TV studio or the Dáil chamber.

I was talking recently to a person who had some insight into FG members thinking in Dublin. Their perception was that Varadkar would see them have a sharp uptick in the polls (early to mid-30s absolutely necessary, and not just in one poll) and their hope was that he would proceed to a snap election thereby getting 60+ seats and paving the way for a coalition with the LP and the GP as well as a smaller more malleable crew of Independents. Perhaps that will work. Though if Adrian Kavanagh is to be believed the LP might come back with between 1 and 3 TDs. And the GP? Well I wish them well but if they had 2 that would be some achievement. In any event that would only bring FG up to 70 odd and one has to presume that FG would have eaten into the Independents numbers leaving… well who? Who is likely to fare worst at the next election from that particular tranche of reps?

Start asking these questions and suddenly the future projection don’t look so rosy, indeed they look extremely contingent.

And then there’s the citizenry of this Republic who to judge from yesterday’s poll are not convinced by Stephen Collins description of L. V. [“a superb media performer who speaks the kind of language the public understands”].

Asked their preferred choice for leader of Fine Gael, 42 per cent said Mr Coveney, while 37 per cent opted for Mr Varadkar. Over a fifth of voters (21 per cent) said they didn’t know.

Now there could very well be a further bounce in the polls – plural, that’s key – from Varadkar assuming the leadership. But. Perhaps there won’t be. Perhaps his reputation precedes him and all the smiley friendly stuff isn’t quite going the distance to softening his image.

And maybe that shock and awe of the contest so far has been taken note of.

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Comments»

1. irishelectionliterature - May 26, 2017

I watched the FG Hustings last night . I was surprised at how well Coveney came across. I imagine Coveney is doing everything he can to try and get some of the PP to change their minds.
If one or two do change sides the whole thing opens up a bit again.

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2. Paddy Healy - May 26, 2017

I can’t find core vote in IrishTimes or IPSOs/mrbi website?
Ipsos/Mrbi says the leadership contest is boosting FG. This is probably true as any major party in the headlines for a good reson always does-eg Ard-Fheis.
Labour 5% and among others GP 2%, SOLIDARITY – PBP 3%, SD 1%,I4C 2%, IA 2%, OTHERS 2%, NON PARTY IND 5%.

These figures have very restricted meaning because they are of the same magnitude as the margin of error-3% for 95% certainty. Some are less than the margin of error!!!!

This means
Labour Party 2% to 8%
Non Party Independents 2% to 8%
Solidarity-PBP 0% to 6%
etc
The figure for others at 18%= 15 to 21% has significance only as a measure of the NON-FG-FF-SF-Lab vote

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Liberius - May 26, 2017

I can’t find core vote in IrishTimes or IPSOs/mrbi website?

Ipsos-MRBI never release data on their website, which is bad form, especially since other Ipsos sections release their data. Anyway, the core numbers are available from the IT site. and just to be clear about something, the margin of error maxes out at 50% and is actually lower than 3% when dealing with support below or above that level.

The core vote for the parties, before undecideds were excluded, compared with the last Irish Times poll in February, was: Fine Gael, 25 per cent (up four); Fianna Fáil, 22 per cent (down one); Labour, 4 per cent (up one); Sinn Féin, 17 per cent (down one); Independents/Others, 15 per cent (no change); and undecided voters, 17 per cent (down three).

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fine-gael-leads-fianna-f%C3%A1il-for-first-time-since-general-election-1.3097309

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Paddy Healy - May 27, 2017

Thanks

B&A Poll May
Total FF FG Lab SF Other/GR Undecided
Core 21.7 22.4 2.9 14.9 15.5 22.6
Ipsos/MRBI (Rounded up) May 25
Core 22 25 4 17 15 17

The most significant change since recent B&A poll seems to be a reduction in undecided

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3. Aengus Millen - May 26, 2017

I find the stability of Fine Gael’s numbers interesting. They have been able to stay near or ahead of FF consistently since the last election. You have to wonder why that is. You would typically think that a party in government (especially such an awful government) would see their numbers go down. I wonder if this is reflective of Fianna Fail weakness. We’ve all been bombarded with the narrative that FF is in the ascendant and that Micheal Martin is waiting in the wings to lead the next government. However it doesn’t seem to be reflected in the polls. I wonder if for a large part of the public FF is still a toxic brand because with all the multiple scandals and incompetence of this government should see FF doing much better then they are. When FF recovered 7% of their vote at the last election there was shock on the left and in the media that people would go back to FF. However I wonder if we over learned that lesson.

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Dermot O Connor - May 26, 2017

Indeed. FF did proportionally far worse in 2012 based on the number of candidates they ran. If they’d cut cloth to measure and run fewer candidates, they’d have been in high 20s/low 30s, which makes their ‘recovery’ last year a little less impressive by comparison.

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irishelectionliterature - May 26, 2017

I wonder is FF’s problem the current arrangement with FG. They did the “responsible” thing by facilitating an FG led government.
Those happy that FF did the “responsible” thing are more likely FG leaning anyway.
Those unhappy with FF can simply paint them as supporting an FG government.
Where they thought they were being cute sitting in opposition and government at the same time ends up pleasing very few.
By continuing to facilitate the government they are in part responsible for the homelessness crisis and other issues.

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4. Dermot O Connor - May 26, 2017

Based on the results of the previous GE, the Greens have no easy 3rd seats. Their nearest finish after the two won was somewhere around 3,000 or 3,500 short of the final seat. It’ll take quite a swing (locally anyway) to deliver a 3rd or 4th seat.

It’ll be a while before they reach the heady heights of 6 or 7 seats again.

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WorldbyStorm - May 26, 2017

Yeah, I can’t see a break out seat for them above the two.

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