Today’s poll. Nothing is so popular as Kenny’s leaving of us. And… the (FG) members are restless…and not just them…

So, a poll. From the IT no less. And in it the figures are:

FG 30% (+2), FF 27% (-2), LP 5% (+1), SF 20% (-1), IND/OTHER 18% (NC).

In that latter GP 2%, SOLIDARITY – PBP 3%, SD 1%,I4C 2%, IA 2%, OTHERS 2%, NON PARTY IND 5%.

I guess it depends how you view this. In one way this is good news for FG, though all within the MOE. Though not the first poll from all poll providers to show them ahead of the old enemy IIRC. On the other 2% and within the MOE seems small reward for pushing their best and brightest, supposedly, into the public spotlight for a couple of weeks now.

Meanwhile Enda Kenny… his satisfaction rating has gone up from 31 to 43%! He should depart every day! Those dissatisfied with the government still outweigh by quite some distance those satisfied with it and so on and so forth.

Seems the Fine Gael membership is less than gruntled at the coronation of Leo Varadkar.

Having spoken with the party’s core supporters in five constituencies: Longford-Westmeath, Roscommon-Galway; Galway East; Tipperary; and Kildare South, it is clear that the new election system is seen as a mixed blessing by the grassroots.
Everyone accepts that an election involving party members is a good idea, but there has been blowback too at the prospect that everything will be sealed up for Varadkar before they even get to attend a hustings, never mind vote.

And yet where is the surprise? No one likes being electoral fodder. And there has been something unseemly about the manner in which Varadkar positioned his big guns on his rival’s territory quite so early in the contest.

If he is elected Varadkar will have to negotiate strong currents in places afterwards as there is a strong possibility the three electoral colleges will diverge – with councillors and the rank-and-file siding with Coveney and a majority of TDs and Senators favouring Varadkar.
In some places it is clear that a significant gulf has emerged between the three elements.

But I think it goes a bit further, I think the shock and awe demonstrates a problem which isn’t confined to FG. It is the idea that elected reps are where the action is, that that is the most important element in all this and that members and others are in a sense purely a backdrop against which political activity is played out.

It’s a very specific and media driven view of political activity – top-down, elitist, disinterested in broader constituencies and one where the only thing that matters can sometimes seem to be the TV studio or the Dáil chamber.

I was talking recently to a person who had some insight into FG members thinking in Dublin. Their perception was that Varadkar would see them have a sharp uptick in the polls (early to mid-30s absolutely necessary, and not just in one poll) and their hope was that he would proceed to a snap election thereby getting 60+ seats and paving the way for a coalition with the LP and the GP as well as a smaller more malleable crew of Independents. Perhaps that will work. Though if Adrian Kavanagh is to be believed the LP might come back with between 1 and 3 TDs. And the GP? Well I wish them well but if they had 2 that would be some achievement. In any event that would only bring FG up to 70 odd and one has to presume that FG would have eaten into the Independents numbers leaving… well who? Who is likely to fare worst at the next election from that particular tranche of reps?

Start asking these questions and suddenly the future projection don’t look so rosy, indeed they look extremely contingent.

And then there’s the citizenry of this Republic who to judge from yesterday’s poll are not convinced by Stephen Collins description of L. V. [“a superb media performer who speaks the kind of language the public understands”].

Asked their preferred choice for leader of Fine Gael, 42 per cent said Mr Coveney, while 37 per cent opted for Mr Varadkar. Over a fifth of voters (21 per cent) said they didn’t know.

Now there could very well be a further bounce in the polls – plural, that’s key – from Varadkar assuming the leadership. But. Perhaps there won’t be. Perhaps his reputation precedes him and all the smiley friendly stuff isn’t quite going the distance to softening his image.

And maybe that shock and awe of the contest so far has been taken note of.