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Those UK Election debates… May 29, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Corbyn first and doing well, very well in fact.

T. May up soon.

Difficult not to think that opponents of the LP leadership, both internal and external, have been very unwise. Firing off so much ammunition in advance of GE2017 left them a lot less in reserve for days like this. And it allowed the public to get a sense of Corbyn (as well as allowing him to fashion credible answers to the obvious questions). Lowering expectations is all very well, but Corbyn is no neophyte, whatever the caricature and has allowed him to present a much more commanding figure.

Moreover the determination to remain as leader despite all this has, in a weird way, almost offered him the equivalent of the dreaded ‘Clause IV’ moment, in reverse. Facing down internal opponents has been for far too long a badge of political prowess – but Corbyn was forced into this, and through the leadership challenge went the distance, has perhaps legitimised him.

None of this means that the BLP will win in a week or so. But it has meant that, paradoxically and counterintuitively he is in remarkably good shape, much much better than expected. As Ed noted before, the leadership in the BLP has (with a couple of obvious exceptions) played a blinder so far.

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1. Dermot O Connor - May 29, 2017

Looks like the media bias against Corbyn has reached such a saturation point that even Daily Mail readers are sick of it.

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2017/05/tories-losing-daily-mail-readers-disarray/

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2. irishelectionliterature - May 29, 2017

I had to turn Theresa May off…. and that’s from someone who watched one and a half FG leadership debates !!
She really is dull and unconvincing.

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Dermot O Connor - May 30, 2017

According to the Irish Times, her performance was a disaster, with the audience laughing at her! And JC did very well, came across calm and likeable. Wonder if the UK electorate will be able to see through the MSM spinsacks.

Couple of comments from UKPR :

#1 Survation English tables, a 5 point lead, with Lab on 39:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9896/comment-page-27#comment-1117940

England – Con 44% : Lab 39% : LD 8% : UKIP 4%

#2: Anecdotal, but:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9896/comment-page-27#comment-1117944

I am surprised by the rather dismissive response to the Labour vote increasing to reduce very large leads down to single figures in most of the recent polls, (another one tonight). I understand this is largely due to the Tory vote only falling by around 5, but nevertheless it is surely significant. Particularly just a week after such a tragic event when you would expect the incumbent Government to be seen as the party of trust.

My hesitation in agreeing this election is just a formality for the Tories is based on the number of young people I know who are enthused and determined to vote Labour. I am 59 my sons 26 and 23, and they have been hitherto marginally political, but over this campaign they have suddenly become Corbynistas. But this alone is not the reason, they both have several hundred friends/friends of friends who are intending to vote Labour aged 18 to 30 many of whom have not voted previously and are scattered across the Country. Most have left university so will not benefit from free tuition fees but they seem to see something they can identify with politically for the first time in their lives.

My sons believe this is occurring in every town and City but not getting picked up by the polls. I have no idea if this wave of youthful enthusiasm for Corbyn will result in votes for Labour on polling day. But I do believe something is happening at grassroots that is been dismissed too readily by political commentators.

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FergusD - May 30, 2017

My sons, 26 and 28, say the same. Social media full of your people trurning to Corbyn and rejecting naked media bias. I don’t now how significant it is in terms of this election (are they registered to vote) but could be for the future.

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sonofstan - May 30, 2017

Likewise with many of my students. It’s such a given that Labour are the young people’s party that when I point out that I’m a leftie too I get a ‘they had socialism back in your day?’ look.

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Joe - May 30, 2017

Really heartening to hear that most young people support Labour now. It skipped at least a generation didn’t it? In my youth it appeared natural for the young to be left of some hue or other. But then in the eighties, nineties, noughties, it wasn’t uncommon to meet young and proud anti-union, anti-left, toryboy types. I hope it’s true that the new young crowd are showing some sense in these matters.

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Aonrud ⚘ - May 30, 2017

On that media bias, there’s some self-awareness missing from this Guardian article on Dimbleby’s remarks on the subject: https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/may/30/jeremy-corbyn-david-dimbleby-rightwing-bias-british-newspapers

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3. Dermot O Connor - May 30, 2017

Also, I have NEVER understood the appeal of Paxman. Watched from across the Atlantic as he seemed to take over BBC political coverage.

The man has the subtlety of the Cookie Monster from Sesame Street, with less brains.

Cometh the age, cometh the man I guess.

Liked by 1 person

4. Dermot O Connor - May 30, 2017

AK seat projections based on poll average:

https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2017/05/29/predicting-seat-levels-in-the-2017-uk-general-election-based-on-recent-opinion-poll-figures-29th-may-2017/

CON 360 (+30)

LAB 218 (-14)

SNP 44 (-12)

LD 6 (-2)

GRN 0 (-1)

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WorldbyStorm - May 30, 2017

It’s definitely a hill to climb. But last night won’t have helped the Tories.

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5. irishelectionliterature - May 30, 2017

I was reading that the Tories did not share on Social Media any clips of May in the leaders debate…… (checked and its true). I think that says a lot about her performance.

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Aonrud ⚘ - May 30, 2017

They were too afraid of the #TheresaMayGIFs hashtag to compete 🙂 Admittedly it wasn’t the height of political analysis, but a lot more entertaining than listening to May.

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