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Latest UK GE 2017 Poll Projection May 31, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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As noted by Dermot O’Connor in comments… from The Times.

The Conservative Party could be in line to lose 20 seats and Labour gain nearly 30 in next week’s general election, according to new modelling by one of the country’s leading pollsters.

YouGov’s first constituency-by- constituency estimate of the election result predicts that the Tories would fall short of an overall majority by 16 seats, leading to a hung parliament.

Early days yet, but.

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1. Dotski - May 31, 2017

FWIW my projection (uniform swing, based on PA poll of polls) suggesting Tory majority of 24+4 SF abstentions=28, & other models have nearly all been less kind to Lab, so am ultra dubious of this projection.

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An Cathaoirleach - May 31, 2017

Agreed. The key for BLP seems to be the under 30 age group. The proportion of them who turn out will be key.

The Scottish poll sees Conservatives picking up 6 seats. The SNP will likely hold 84% of the seats with 44% of the Scottish vote due to FPTP system and a split opposition.

The recent Welsh poll showed just one seat changing hands, with the Conservatives losing Gower, which they won in 2015.

As the Conservative party vote is consistently up over their 2015 performance, those gains would need to be spread inconsistently throughout England for them not to gain, let alone lose many seats. Also the BLP vote gains would need to be concentrated in areas where the Conservatives are defending small pluralities.

In large parts of England, the LibDems are the natural second party. No sign of any pick up there.

While the likely Conservative majority of MPs is unlikely to be as big as originally assumed, a working majority of 50-100 looks probable at this stage.

As a betting person, my guess would be the outcome will be around the following;

Others SNP/UKNI/PC/Lib/GP 80
Labour 200-220
Conservatives 350-370

Liked by 1 person

2. Roger Cole - May 31, 2017

Why? There has been a sustained swing from the Tories to Labour. May when she announced an election which she had previously declared she was opposed to, was because Corbyn was way behind in the polls. Virtually nobody thought he could win (including myself), although I did think he had a very slim chance of becoming PM. But he fought a brilliant campaign, in no small measure via social media, and if one poll shows there will be a hung Parliament and another does not, since the trend has been towards a Corbyn victory, it is just as reasonable to say he could win. Maybe so many people in Ireland who declare themselves on the “LEFT” just cannot believe Corbyn can win, even if from some of the polls and the general trend in his direction shows that it is at least an option.

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WorldbyStorm - May 31, 2017

I think a small number might not want Corbyn to win having bought into certain Labour right tropes but for most others I think there’s a difference between all wanting him to win while acknowledging the enormity of the challenge,and it is a massive structural challenge. So for example I want him to win but I know that may not be possible – and even so I’m delighted he’s doing so well and hope he can do much better again.

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An Cathaoirleach - May 31, 2017

Roger, there has been no swing from the Conservatives to Labour. Rather there is a swing away from the alternatives.

No one is seriously suggesting that the Conservative votes has fallen since 2015.

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3. sonofstan - May 31, 2017

Guardian headline over piece by Freedland: Corbyn’s extraordinary comeback proves campaigns do matter’

Comment BTL:
the headline should say:
“Corbyn’s extraordinary fightback proves Grauniad completey wrong”.

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Ed - May 31, 2017

Lemme guess, he’s pushing the line that it’s all down to Tory incompetence and Yvette Cooper would be marching straight into Downing Street if she was in Corbyn’s place? Freedland and Toynbee seem to have a competition to see who can be the bigger hypocrite and bullshitter. When Labour’s manifesto was launched, Toynbee had a column saying it was full of wonderful policies, but alas Labour could never win support for those policies in its current condition. You’d think she’d be getting very excited now at the sight of more people seemingly attracted by those policies she claimed to love so much. Aye, you’d think …

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sonofstan - May 31, 2017

No apparently he’s just noticed that Jeremy C is not a nutter after all, and that the British public have spotted to too! Remarkable!

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WorldbyStorm - May 31, 2017

Hahah, that made me laugh SoS. It is going to be some sight to see certain people try to clamber back on board the ship now that they’ve decided it’s better not to hole it below the waterline. There’s a number on the Guardian who should hang their heads in shame…

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sonofstan - May 31, 2017

Our institution is in a state of chassis at the minute, and a lot of the time, comments about the coming year are finished off with ‘if we’re all still here in September’. Now it has grown an appendage along the lines of ‘of course fees might have been abolished by then’ *nervous laugh*

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WorldbyStorm - May 31, 2017

That’s even better! Some won’t like that.

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4. Dermot O Connor - May 31, 2017

Blimey, Jeremy’s having fun it seems.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/uk-election-corbyn-decides-to-join-leaders-tv-debate-tonight-1.3102899

Now this will be interesting. Makes May look like an Ickean space lizard.

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WorldbyStorm - May 31, 2017

I think he’s sensible to go and participate.

Liked by 1 person

Michael Carley - May 31, 2017

And he is playing a blinder.

Liked by 1 person

WorldbyStorm - May 31, 2017

Debate performance this evening good too. Again Michael White’s comments which I never tire of quoting here come to mind – that Corbyn could over his leadership soon enough come to seem like the quiet, thoughtful person right to clean up the Tories mess (granted this was when Cameron was PM!). He really is playing a blinder.

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ivorthorne - May 31, 2017

Overall, a very good debate for everyone but the Tories. Nutall’s “Britain First” comment was breathtaking given the context.

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ivorthorne - May 31, 2017

Apparently the story going round is Rudd’s father died on Monday but May still did not turn up.

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WorldbyStorm - May 31, 2017

I saw that, weird isn’t it? I mean put aside the human aspect and how tough it would be for Rudd and why one might think May would do it for that alone but the optics politically are wretched. May is disastrously bad, and yet she will almost certainly win. Though hopefully not big.

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ivorthorne - May 31, 2017

The sources are redtops so the usual caveats apply but how worried were they about May’s performance to risk those headlines? People who know nothing about corporate tax rates know that kind of thing is indecent.

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Michael Carley - May 31, 2017
Ivorthorne - June 1, 2017

Wow. This is going well! Best free up my diary for the victory rave!

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sonofstan - June 1, 2017

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

You Gov’s seat projections have shifted Wycombe from ‘safe’ to ‘likely’ Conservative. That may seem like much, but in the context of Bucks it’s seismic. The tory candidate, Steve Baker, hard brexiter is nowhere to be seen and I haven’t seen a single piece of literature from him. The tories have no local parties in a lot of areas in the shires to speak of, and it’s going to bite them in some places. Unlike last time, when the labour campaign was desultory, this time, there’s a whole bunch of young and energetic activists. Not predicting an upset, but will threaten for the next time – which may be quite soon….

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Michael Carley - June 1, 2017

@SoS on the same figures Bath is a three way toss-up, which it hasn’t been for decades. The Labour candidate here is very good (won the first Labour council seat in the city for twenty five years) and though it’s an outside chance, it’s a remarkable development in a few years.

North East Somerset, unfortunately, looks solidly Tory which means I’m stuck with Rees-Mogg (though it does guarantee a supply of “special” literature for IEL).

Liked by 1 person

sonofstan - June 1, 2017

@MC -Some of my co-workers live in the neighbouring constituency of Buckingham, which is John Bercow’s constituency. It’s bad enough when the Ceann Comhairle thing means you lose one seat, but when you’re effectively disenfranchised in FPTP, it feels very unfair.

Mind you, MC, you do have the compensation of living in Somerset. Worse places.

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Michael Carley - June 1, 2017

@SoS There’s Somerset and Somerset. I’m about three miles from the Wiltshire county line.

There’s a line of John Le Carre’s about a character living in a village near Bath, “the kind of place where English Catholics go to retire”. I live in a place a bit like that, though attached to Bath, rather than near it. It came into North East Somerset on a boundary change and that population movement was what changed the seat from a slightly safe Labour one to solidly Tory.

I’m not sure I quite trust my neighbours.

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Joe - June 1, 2017

Sounds like you two lads are gone deep, deep, deep undercover. In the belly of the beast. I’d say Jez will appoint yis both regional people’s commisars after the landslide this day week.

Liked by 2 people

sonofstan - June 1, 2017

‘Exposed! the Irish Republican Communists in our Midst Working for Corbyn Victory!’

(The Daily Express tomorrow – and every day)

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Mick 2 - June 1, 2017

He really is having so much fun, though, isn’t he? The swagger of this… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMY3mPnUk6k#t=21m07s

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5. Jolly Red Giant - May 31, 2017

I see chicken little disappearing over the horizon screaming ‘the sky is falling’

Liked by 1 person

6. Dermot O Connor - June 1, 2017

Latest Yougov = a 3% gap.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/voting-intention-conservatives-42-labour-39-30-31-/

And this from yougov on ‘the experimental election’ for pollsters, trying to deal with the very wide spread (with some polls giving a 3% gap, others a 10 to 12.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/01/pollsters-experimental-election/

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