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That SBP poll May 31, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

One has to wonder at what is happening in Irish politics at the moment. The latest SBP poll offers us this:

FG 29 +5 (/4 wks)
FF 21 -7 (!!)
SF 15 -3
Ind 14 +4
Lab 6
SD 4
IA 3 +1
SolPBP 3 -1
Green 3
Renua 1
Ors 1 +1

And here’s the first preference vote in 2016.

Fine Gael (25.5%)
Fianna Fáil (24.3%)
Sinn Féin (13.8%)
Labour Party (6.6%)
AAA-PBP (3.9%)
Social Democrats (3.0%)
Green Party (2.7%)
Renua Ireland (2.2%)
Independents 4 Change (1.5%)
Other (16.5%)

What’s interesting is how much of the movement is between FF and FG. And certainly one would have to accept that the focus of attention on the latter party due to the change of leadership is doing them little harm. IEL asked was it possible that Enda Kenny had proven to be a drag on their support. It seems possible.

But the relative lack of movement elsewhere, most of it, bar SF, being within the MOE, suggests that others are broadly speaking happy enough with their choices, at least so far. And that, to an extent, makes sense. If you’re voting Solidarity/PBP or GP or indeed LP (that band of hardy souls) you’re probably not going to go too far from that. SD’s too, perhaps, and even SF sees its vote perhaps streaming somewhat to Independents.

But what isn’t evident is any significant swings from Inds/Others to FF or FG. If that is baked in, at least for a while to come, then movements in support for those parties will largely consist of poaching support from the other before gaining it from Ind/Others. Of course that’s not quite how it works. But the reality of upper limits on both the FG and FF vote across the last year is somewhat surprising. Perhaps they will find it near enough impossible to break above those limits. And after all, to do so they’d have to ‘mine’ the Ind/Other categories too.

But that isn’t happening – yet. So far those in those areas appear indifferent to Varadkar or Coveney’s charms (and what if this election contest in FG has the opposite effect to the intended, where a May-like focus as in UK GE2017 means that people see Varadkar and don’t exactly warm to him?) . Is that going to be factored in in relation to the date of the next election. It surely is.


1. Dermot O Connor - May 31, 2017

On these numbers, even a 1.5% increase for PSF puts them in the 30+ seats range, and puts FF in mid to high 30s. And with Labour likely 4 or 5, maybe less.

FF might end up ruing the day they didn’t opt for the rotation Taoiseach with Enda, haha.


2. Aengus Millen - May 31, 2017

I think your point about upper limits on party support is why Leo will kick himself a year from now if he doesn’t go for a snap election. I can’t imagine their number improving much more under the status quo minus Enda.


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