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The 1% …….. June 3, 2017

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.
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Survation / Mail on Sunday Poll conducted this morning (ie after QT):
Con 40 (-6%)
Lab 39 (+5%)
LD 8%
UKIP 5 %
Others 9%

Thursday night/ Friday morning could be more than interesting …..

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1. Alibaba - June 3, 2017

They’ve got the jitters and are trying to scare the vote out.

Liked by 1 person

irishelectionliterature - June 3, 2017

Possibly, I think this poll assumes that the young people who say that they are voting, actually vote. That it seems now is where it could be won and lost.
It’s quite an incredible turnaround.

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Aonrud ⚘ - June 3, 2017

This methodological split between weighing young votes against previous turnout or self-reported likelihood to vote seems to be having an interesting impact on the pollsters. I assume this one is in the latter camp.

Some of them presumably are going to look bad after the count. For comparison, ComRes still had a 12 point gap yesterday.

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Aonrud ⚘ - June 3, 2017

By the way, an ATM asked me if I thought May would win, while I was waiting for cash today. Anyone else come across this marketing/survey method? Never seen it before.

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irishelectionliterature - June 3, 2017

Fuckin Hell! ….Wonder does the leader named in the question depend on the amount of money being withdrawn!!

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Aonrud ⚘ - June 3, 2017

🙂

It’s the ultimate in Tory polling! It just records your balance and answer. As soon as people with a high balance start saying no, an alarm goes off in CCHQ.

Liked by 1 person

Dermot O Connor - June 4, 2017

Poor Theresa. Should have waited for her Falklands.

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2. Pasionario - June 3, 2017

I can’t help but think this is too good to be true. On a good day, Labour might pull in 35-36% and limit seat losses to 10-20. I daren’t hope for anything more.

Liked by 2 people

6to5against - June 3, 2017

We have surely all learned over the years that its the hope that will break your heart.

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6to5against - June 3, 2017

And if we’re relying on the young people to vote….

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Dermot O Connor - June 4, 2017

1992. Christ.

“We’re all right! We’re all riiiiight”.

Brahms still gives me the jeebies.

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WorldbyStorm - June 4, 2017

Yeah, I know what you mean. Though in fairness to him that wasn’t all it was. I was in London the week before that election and what struck me was that there was an unwillingness to give the LP the vote. I have to say as well it was one of the darkest times of my life seeing the LP lose again then.

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3. Pasionario - June 3, 2017

I can’t help but think this is too good to be true. On a good day, Labour might pull in 35-36% and limit seat losses to 10-20. I daren’t hope for anything more.

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4. Jolly Red Giant - June 3, 2017

Chicken little is getting smaller as the faint cries of ‘the sky is falling’ are heard.

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WorldbyStorm - June 4, 2017

What precisely does that mean? It’s difficult not to feel that at this stage you’re simply trolling this site (as well as having a remarkably shaky understanding of UK politics) – you don’t seem to have any wish to seriously engage on here, and multiple times you’ve ignored others who have actually responded to your comments. If that’s the case I can only refer you to what has happened to others who’ve taken a similar course. You know their names.

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5. roddy - June 4, 2017

Unfortunately the polls are all over theplace with one showing an11 pt Tory lead .

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WorldbyStorm - June 4, 2017

Very true. The spread is 3% through to 10% or so. Labour is behind in each instance. Now, of course, this is much better than any of us hoped for a week or two ago but still, the BLP is almost certainly going to lose this election. The positive is that it may wipe the sheen off May’s victory.

Some bad stuff in London this evening btw.

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Dermot O Connor - June 4, 2017

It would be interesting to see all poll results with “intention to vote” removed. That’s where the errors are coming in, it seems.

As predictors of popular support, they’re probably not far off (outliers notwithstanding); as a predictor of actual votes on the 8th, good luck.

Liked by 2 people

6. Jolly Red Giant - June 4, 2017

As an aside – the NIPSA General Council election results have been announced with the Broad Left winning the Presidency, Treasurer and 28 of the 34 council seats with the NIPSA conference overwhelmingly voting for a campaign of action against planned SF/DUP cuts to public services.

Liked by 1 person

7. Dermot O Connor - June 4, 2017

Aaaaand:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-labour-gaining-ground-former-ukip-voters-polls-general-election-a7771236.html

QUOTE: Jeremy Corbyn’s election campaign could be given a late boost by former Ukip voters deciding to give their vote to Labour rather than to the Conservatives, according to two focus groups.

Experts had previously predicted that most of those who have recently voted for Ukip would now back Theresa May because of her apparent commitment to Brexit and her pledge to reduce immigration, but in a surprising shift, half of one group said they would now consider voting Labour.

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Dr.Nightdub - June 4, 2017

Half of a focus group is four people. I wouldn’t go getting my hopes up, based on a sample so tiny.

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8. Jolly Red Giant - June 4, 2017

Loathe though I am to do it – it really is necessary to go back and look at the comments here less than one month ago – right after the local elections – here are some choice comments that demonstrate the attitude of many people who post on here (who have now done an about turn.

Irishelectionliterature
“Presumably we’re looking at a massive Tory landslide in June.”

6to5against
“This is a victory for extremism and bigotry. I can’t see any other way of dressing it up.”

An Cathaoirleach
“Cultural hegemony, pure and simple. Mrs. May understands it & using pejorative terms does not change that core point.”

An Cathaoirleach
“The workers seem to prefer Mrs. May.”

Lamentreat
“Maybe it will take a catastrophically lost war to drum some sense into a nation so deluded. Hopefully only a negotiating one, not a shooting one.”

Paddy Healy
“The British left is a disaster as it has been for decades.”

An Sionnach Fionn
“Thatcher and the Tories had the Falkland Islands and the Loadsamoney class in the 1980s. May and the Tories have Brexit and White Van Man. Crude and simplistic analogies I know but that seems to be where the UK’s politics are at the moment.”

WorldbyStorm
“It is a huge crisis for the left”

Gerryboy
“I infer from the local election result that the British Labour Party is heading for a hammering in the General Election.”

Mick 2
“You’d like not to blame the electorate for the awful state of affairs, but sometimes I just despair…”

roddy
“Like Del Boy once famously proclaimed in “only fools and horses”- “don’t it make you proud to be British”!”

And my two personal favourites

WorldbyStorm
“Proof, if any were needed that the events of the last year in regard to the Brexit referendum have been catastrophic for the left in the UK. There’s compelling evidence that the Tories are eating into the LP’s terrain and as someone put it, UKIP (and presumably the referendum) have functioned as gateways to previously LP inclined voters to the Tories… Jesus wept. How to push back against this? I don’t know. It’s going to take years.”

GW
“Yes, and it gives me no pleasure to have ‘been right’. Talking to relatives and friends in the UK on the left they are in a state of demoralisation.”

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Jolly Red Giant - June 4, 2017

My response to all this stuff –
“There is – and has been – a serious danger that many on the left are looking at election results and drawing the conclusion that the right-wing and the far right are on the rise – they are not. What is happening is a re-alignment of politics – the collapse of the former social democracies and the beginnings of the a re-emergence of mass left forces.”

and

“But there is enormous potential in the situation”

Now my comments about ‘potential’ led to a string of commentary, primarily from WbS, about

“I can’t think of someone here who has been proven more conclusively wrong time and time again”

And this comment when I suggested that the people here were drawing the wrong conclusions about Brexit and the local election results

“This would be hilarious if it wasn’t so sad.”

These comments were followed in rapid fire by

WorldbyStorm
“And the evidence is in front of your eye about all this, you yourself have to admit May short of a catastrophe is going to win.”

WorldbyStorm
“I wish it were otherwise the performance of Corbyn and his front bench is utterly underpowered with far too many own goals for comfort.”

WorldbyStorm
“The forces of the left scattered, the LP weakened. Saying there is potential is utterly beside the point. It’s irrelevant. As long as there is life there is some hope of survival but ‘potential’?”

WorldbyStorm
“What is being suggested is that this is a further catastrophic slide downwards. How could it be otherwise when the main organisation of the left, however soft, takes such a dismal hit and particularly when it has tilted somewhat leftwards in recent times and the hopes that accompanied that have been dashed.”

It is worth noting how the tune has changed in the last four weeks as Corbyn’s left manifesto (with all its limitations) has struck a chord with working class people and particularly young people – and the issue of Brexit has been confined to being a minor issue which suggests that I may not have been so ‘delusional’ when I argued that the Brexit vote was not a predominately racist and xenophobic vote. Indeed a Quantum survey placed the issue of immigration as 13th on a list of important issues for the Brexit negotiations – just above “ensuring that EU citizens already in the UK are able to stay” – and way behind the top issue of “ensuring the UK’s public services are well-funded”.

Now – please permit me to indulge while I respectfully wave farewell to chicken little – and here is hoping that the ‘enormous potential’ that currently exists with the jumps in support for Corbyn’s left manifesto will be realised and we see the shafting of the Blairties and the building of a mass left working class party in Britain.

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WorldbyStorm - June 4, 2017

I won’t speak for others. Let me take the quote of mine you use…

“Proof, if any were needed that the events of the last year in regard to the Brexit referendum have been catastrophic for the left in the UK. There’s compelling evidence that the Tories are eating into the LP’s terrain and as someone put it, UKIP (and presumably the referendum) have functioned as gateways to previously LP inclined voters to the Tories… Jesus wept. How to push back against this? I don’t know. It’s going to take years.”

Putting aside the elision of the referendum and the election by you throughout your comments, the Tories remain ahead in every poll of Labour even though the gap has narrowed. For Labour to best the Tories seat wise would require them to be well ahead. The seat numbers just won’t come true on the current figures, due in part to structural issues (not least Scotland but also boundary changes in the UK since 2010). State power will almost certainly reside with the Tories for the next five years. What is different, and what all of us here have noted is that at least the LP will come out of this in better shape, much better shape, than we had feared. We’re delighted, but you… you use it as an excuse to attack people.

Problem is though, you’re trying to argue both sides simultaneously.

You yourself in your own comments which I quoted previously said nothing less either – that the Tories were pretty much certain to win with a slight possibility that Corbyn might not. Now you’re pretending you didn’t say that when in the quote you just offered of your own it’s patently obvious that you did and simultaneously sought to diminish the importance of the election result(s) both local and national which you said was likely to be a Tory victory. How else to interpret this from you:

“There is – and has been – a serious danger that many on the left are looking at election results and drawing the conclusion that the right-wing and the far right are on the rise – they are not. What is happening is a re-alignment of politics – the collapse of the former social democracies and the beginnings of the a re-emergence of mass left forces.”

All the rest is empty rhetoric on your part – though given how vague even the above is ‘the beginnings’ of the ‘re-emergence’ of… one would have to be very credulous to place any weight on your analysis, it’s all nebulous in the extreme, of course allowing you to cover any eventuality and try to claim credit for your powers of prognostication. And speaking of which you appear to claim credit for foresight you never exhibited and in the form of a party you’d never be a member of (that being the BLP) pursuing policies that (ironically) both of us consider too far to the right. What a crock JRG.

At least some of us are able to look and relook at a situation and acknowledge that yes, situations change, yes, sometimes they improve (as well as disimprove) and perhaps just perhaps things will be a bit better and that an analysis has to be revised.

But to claim as you implicitly do that all this was pre-ordained is just barmy. Indeed given that the very things you demanded of the BLP and Corbyn never were implemented, i.e. mandatory reselections, in the referendum taking a hard anti-EU position, going to the UK at the election on a left programme when what is actually on offer is fairly moderate, etc you’re in no position to pretend that your approach holds any water. In fact one could make a strong arguement that had he pursued such a course (which of course would have been hugely anti-democratic and gone against the wishes of the actual BLP membership) it would have split the BLP leaving it in worse shape to contest this election.

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EWI - June 4, 2017

What is different, and what all of us here have noted is that at least the LP will come out of this in better shape, much better shape, than we had feared.

Indeed. And, given how May is about to experience a long, drawn-out beating over the next five years due to Brexit, by-election losses and defections may well rob the Tories of power if they don’t substantially improve on their present majority.

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WorldbyStorm - June 4, 2017

Yes, agree completely. Though the collateral damage to workers in Britain is grim to contemplate. I won’t hope for a Corbyn victory but if it were to occur…

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Richard - June 4, 2017

It’s amusing to see the way the CWI has attempted to leech itself on to, and lecture, Corbyn and Labour after 25 years of denouncing the LP and anyone who dared to suggest that it remained a potential vehicle for left or socialist politics.

Imagine where Corbyn would be had he followed the CWI’s strategy over the last couple of decades. On 1% probably.

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WorldbyStorm - June 4, 2017

One major problem I have is with demanding things of parties one isn’t a member of or is in sympathy with and particularly when the demands are for things that one knows goes against the rules and structures of a party.

Here we’ve been supportive of Corbyn from the off, albeit recognising the hill that had to be climbed and how circumstances not of his making made matters more difficult.

But beyond that Corbyn has been both lucky and astute in keeping the show on the road. And part of that has been knowing when to move forward and when to hold fire. And btw, there’s a real pleasure in reading those who wrote long columns against him in the UK media changing their minds as the vote share rises!

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9. roddy - June 4, 2017

JRG latching onto Corbyn when he would be denouncing him within weeks if he won.

Liked by 1 person

10. sonofstan - June 4, 2017

People make wrong predictions on internet shock. It should be closed down

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11. fergal - June 4, 2017

JRG- I distinctly recall writing- there’s many a slip between cup and lip about a Tory landslide. Nothing has happened yet. I’m thrilled by the opinion polls- but they are only that- polls. Too many ‘what ifs’ for the moment- will young people cast their vote? how many voters are ‘shy’ Tories, impact of attacks etc, etc.
I’m amazed that you haven’t criticised Corbyn’s manifesto…yet….for not being left wing, as any group that doesn’t follow the SP line cannot be left wing

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WorldbyStorm - June 4, 2017

And in truth his manifesto isn’t that left wing. But at least it is left inclining and a good start! And probably as left wing as can be put in front of the voters at this point. Small steps.

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12. Jolly Red Giant - June 4, 2017

WbS –

I note you start with your own slant about what I said about the election – I never said that it was ‘pretty much certain’ that the Tories would win – indeed the last time you had the courtesy to actually quote my comment, not your slant on it.

Here is the quote – “The likelihood is that the Tories will win the election in Britain – although it is far from guaranteed.” – and the likelihood is still that the Tories will win the election – but it is even less ‘pretty certain’ than when I suggested four weeks ago that “it is far from guaranteed” – while you and every one else were predicting that the LP was heading for a “disaster” – and the sky was falling in.

But the more relevant point is that you still do not get the dynamic currently underway within British politics.

Indeed your offering that the LP manifesto is ‘pretty moderate’ demonstrates this – the reality is that the LP manifesto is significantly to the left than any LP manifesto in nearly 40 years. And it is not so much the content of the manifesto that has struck a chord, but the presentation by Corbyn and McDonnell who are putting a significantly more left slant on it than the content actually warrants. This is to be welcomed – even with the limitations caused by the Blairite party apparatus.

Furthermore – it seems completely lost on everyone on this site that if Corbyn actually succeeds in winning the election, the Blairites will do everything in their power to sabotage the implementation of these reforms. It would require a mass mobilisation on the streets and in workplaces and communities to force through the any sort of reform measures. Similarly with the Tories (who EWI suggests will have five years in power) – the likelihood now is that there will be a significant impetus on the streets to oppose the policies of the Tories.

The rebuilding of a mass left party is still in the very early stages.

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Jolly Red Giant - June 4, 2017

WbS

I could go on an take each piece of nonsense to pieces (like your claim that Corbyn should have taken a ‘hard anti-EU position – when that was never argued for) but there really is little point. The vast majority of contributors on here seem to lack the basic Marxist tools of analysis and are bouncing around all over the shop since the Brexit referendum. In the meantime the CWI will actively engage with what is happening in Britain and will work to build a mass left party, and if Corbyn manages to finally throw off the shackles of the Blairites with and through the LP.

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GW - June 4, 2017

Does that mean the Labour Party will be graced with another wave of CWI entryism?

I’m sure they will be deeply flattered. And delight in the the chance to be lectured on basic Marxist tools of analysis 🙂

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WorldbyStorm - June 4, 2017

JRG, I was paraphrasing your comment given I didn’t have the quote to hand. You know what I was saying and I don’t think I put any spin on it at all. The likelihood was that the Tories would win but this was far from guaranteed. Sure, there’s always a chance that something else might happen but that remains the status quo today. The likelihood remains that the Tories will win. If anyone differed and still differs it is that ‘far from’. The chances for the LP winning are still low.

But why would we think the ‘far from’ was unlikely? At that time May was a more commanding figure seemingly and the Tories more commanding likewise in all polls. And the reality of Labour performance at council level confirmed that analysis at the time.

Now examining the situation since then May has made unforced error one after another and Corbyn has been much more resolute. But these aren’t down to their political bases, or necessary to political dynamics already pre-existing. If May was a better politician or if she’d had some nous re taxation measures, etc she would be doing better. And Corbyn’s improved approach wasn’t as evident in the months prior to the election. He’s a doughty campaigner and someone I hugely admire but he has weaknesses. Moreover you yourself accept that there’s a chimerical aspect to this in that the BLP is a party that is significantly divided!

One important point is that no-one here argued against Corbyn or indeed the BLP. Despite those aspects noted above we were lock solid that only a vote for Labour and Corbyn was the way forward.

But there’s a further problem in your ‘analysis’, that this isn’t about ‘dynamics’ but the actual structural aspects that shape outcomes. The UK Labour Party can get high percentages but not be able to transform them due to constituency boundaries into high outcomes. There’s the loss of Scotland etc. There is the damage inflicted by the cleavage of Brexit itself.

Look at this…

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

And this…

https://electionsetc.com/2017/06/02/combined-forecast-for-ge2017-third-update/

And even YouGov’s projection still put the Tories ahead of Labour by 40+ seats.

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

None of the above is meaningless, these are objective aspects of the political terrain and for all the stuff about us lacking basic Marxist tools we do seem to have broadly, despite very different backgrounds, an ability to look at material conditions in a reasonably objective way and engage with them rather than resorting to rhetoric about the sunny uplands, which somehow never quite seem to arrive.

BTW, is the LP manifesto is further to the left than any in forty years? I’m not so sure about that now. 1987 had some interesting stuff about social ownership in industry.

But even when you make a point you duck from it so you say that the manifesto is further to the left but then say the presentation is more leftwards than it warrants? it’s like you’re trying to stay on both sides of the argument.

“Furthermore – it seems completely lost on everyone on this site that if Corbyn actually succeeds in winning the election, the Blairites will do everything in their power to sabotage the implementation of these reforms. It would require a mass mobilisation on the streets and in workplaces and communities to force through the any sort of reform measures. Similarly with the Tories (who EWI suggests will have five years in power) – the likelihood now is that there will be a significant impetus on the streets to oppose the policies of the Tories.

The rebuilding of a mass left party is still in the very early stages.”

This is for the birds. It really is. Why would it only be now that there’ll be on the street pushback given there wasn’t for the last seven years of Tory rule? Perhaps Brexit itself as it gets worse will provide a catalyst, but that’s presumably not part of your analysis. And in any event given that support/antagonism for that cuts across class I’m not sure how it wound function in reality.

Finally, what of this? “like your claim that Corbyn should have taken a ‘hard anti-EU position – when that was never argued for”.

I need only go to the SPEW site here and read…

“Nonetheless, the bosses’ EU is one more obstacle that any left government will face. For this reason it is a serious mistake for Jeremy Corbyn to have given into to the relentless bullying by the Labour right and agree to argue for a vote to stay in the EU in a referendum.”

I seem to recall you criticising him similarly.

Indeed this is what you said after the referendum result:

“and this was allowed to happen because Corbyn capitulated to the Blairites rather than campaigning for Lexit and for an EU wide campaign against austerity and the rule of the 1%”

How in advance of the referendum or after it could it possibly be that arguing for Corbyn to vote against staying in the EU was anything other than a hard anti-EU position?

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ivorthorne - June 4, 2017

Am I missing some subtext here JRG?

I mean, everybody seems to be, more or less on the same page. Everybody is happy that the Labour Party has improved its rating. Everybody hopes they get a majority. Everybody likes Corbyn.

But even now, after a nice improvement, the figures still suggest an increased Tory majority. That is not a good thing. It’s never been a good thing, but the Torys have moved further right to steal UKIP supporters and that means that they’re more dangerous than ever.

The silver lining is that Corbyn and the Labour manifesto’s support trend levels are ascending. But even at that, it still looks like we’re looking at at least another half decade of Tory austerity.

As for the claim that the “Brexit vote was not a predominately racist and xenophobic vote”, well I think that’s not a useful claim. The two most cited issues mentioned in research into those who voted were the economy and immigraion. One has to conclude that it is more likely that leavers cited immigration in higher numbers.

See this report:

http://www.natcen.ac.uk/media/1319222/natcen_brexplanations-report-final-web2.pdf

“The NatCen Panel post-Referendum survey asked what people thought the current priority for government should be. Those who voted Remain were significantly more likely to select
education, poverty and inequality, and the economy as their concerns. Those who voted Leave were significantly more likely to select immigration.

The biggest single distinguishing factor in terms of general priorities for government is immigration (47% of Leave
voters compared to 16% Remain voters). This confirms that the issues that were most important in the EU Referendum – immigration and the economy – broadly matched voters’
wider policy concerns.”

“We find three distinct groups that made up the
vote to Leave:

Economically deprived, anti-immigration
.
Those with least economic resourcesand who are most anti-immigration and nationalistic. Various labels can be
attached to this group, such as the ‘left behind’ or ‘just about managing’. They form the bedrock of UKIP support and
have been politically disengaged in the past.

Affluent Eurosceptics

This group are more Conservative than UKIP and
more middle class. Yes, they are anti-immigration but they are also interested in Britain’s indepedence and are noticeably
anti-welfare

Older working classes

They are on low incomes and have little in the way of
formal qualifications – but don’t feel poor or badly educated. They are concerned about immigration and changing identity
but are socially different to the first group. ”

It’s not possible to say that the Brexit vote was predominantly racist or xenophobic. Predominantly is too strong a word. Thinking that immigration is the most important priority does not automatically mean one is racist or xenophobic. Likewise, where the report finds people who are nationalistic, anti-immigration, and concerned about identity changing, it does not mean that all of these people are racist or xenophobic, but it is likely that a large chunk of them are. The more extreme side of this group were the type of people who were responsible for the 50ish percent increase in hate crimes against Europeans in the UK in the aftermath of the referendum.

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EWI - June 5, 2017

Similarly with the Tories (who EWI suggests will have five years in power) – the likelihood now is that there will be a significant impetus on the streets to oppose the policies of the Tories.

Not at all. I think that if the Tories don’t pull off a miraculous landslide then they’re going to be out of power sooner rather than later, even with DUP support. The ‘five years’ is a minimum estimate of the kicking about to be delivered by the reality of Brexit (despite the best efforts of both Trump and the supine ROI government to save them from themselves).

With any luck, this will also defang Tory efforts (building on the Blairites’) to scrap the NHS, etc.

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13. GW - June 4, 2017

Given the pause due to the murders and wounding in London it’s worth considering what might happen after Thursday in the UK. I’ve frankly not a baldy which of the wide range of poll predictions are most likely, given the massive diversity of models.

One thing is certain – some of them are going to be proved very wrong.

Brexit dominates all possible outcomes. These include broadly:

1. Assuming that a miracle occurs and the Tories and the UP don’t hold a workable majority Labour will then have to build a coalition, if it doesn’t want another election. Quite what the approach to Brexit could be in this case, given the Lib Dems and SNP’s position on the matter is hard to see. Perhaps to continue negotiating in good faith, trying to minimise the damage and allowing a free parliamentary vote or another referendum when the nature of the deal is known. The damage to the UK and Irish working class would be least in this case.

2. If the Tories and the UP come out with a fairly narrow majority this is going to present problems for May’s approach to the negotiations. I’ve always suspected at some point the ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ to be a bluff, but without the ability to survive a revolt from the UKIP wing of the Tory party, May will not able to drop this position. Making ‘no deal’ likely. But at least the Tories will own the results. Maximal damage due to Brexit in the UK and RoI.

3. If the Tories get a 70+ majority May has more flexibility and mey in the end be able to push a Norway-like deal through here party. Medium damage.

If I had to take a punt I’d say a Tory majority of about 50 seats is the likely outcome, but I wouldn’t put more than a yoyo on it.

The one indubitable positive is that Corbyn and his supporter’s positions have been considerably strengthened against the Blairites in the Labour party, with hopes of a continuing mass left party in the UK.

Liked by 1 person

WorldbyStorm - June 4, 2017

That’s hugely important, that last, but as you say all the rest holds true too.

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14. roddy - June 4, 2017

GW,entryism is well under way up here as the neo unionist SP swamp the so called “Labour party of Northern Ireland” which Corbyn has wisely prevented from standing in elections.

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EWI - June 5, 2017

as the neo unionist SP swamp the so called “Labour party of Northern Ireland” which Corbyn has wisely prevented from standing in elections.

I was wondering at their recent appearance south of the border.

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15. Dermot O Connor - June 5, 2017

https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2017/06/05/bludgertrack-uk-con-43-0-lab-38-0-ld-7-4-ukip-4-1/#comment-2592518

QUOTE: the more interesting story to emerge from the polling is the disparity between voting intention of younger and older respondents, such that pollsters’ findings are heavily dependent on the relative weightings they apply to them. This is demonstrated in the chart below, which records Labour’s gain among respondents aged 18-34 has been twice as great at among those aged 55 and over, from a base that was already remarkably wide to start off with.

Age loomed large in the polling industry’s failure at the 2015 election, with Anthony Wells of YouGov and UK Polling Report observing that the single biggest issue was that pollsters surveyed “too many younger people who were too engaged and too interested in politics”. Broadly speaking, one of the approaches to dealing with this issue has been to construct turnout models based more on the age and class structure of the voting population at the 2015 election, as recorded by post-election surveys — and it is these pollsters who have recorded the strongest results for the Conservatives.

ComRes, ICM and Kantar have followed this pattern throughout the campaign, while Panelbase has done so since a methodology change that has applied to the latest two out of their six campaign polls. The effect in each case has been to downweight younger respondents, and hence support for Labour. If Labour’s hope of a turnout surge among younger voters is borne out, these polls will no doubt be found wanting.

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Dermot O Connor - June 5, 2017

QUOTE (cont’d): ndeed, various other methodological adjustments by these pollsters appear to be producing a turnout population that is somewhat older than that in 2015 (see table below). In the case of ICM, which is weighting by self-identified political interest levels, one recent poll was calculated by Wells as producing a Conservative lead eight points greater than would have been the case using the pollsters’ 2015 models.

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