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The Wisdom of the (CLR) Crowd… The UK GE 2017… seat levels and percentages… June 8, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Yeah, yeah, I know, I know. It’s shooting in the dark, but anyone willing to offer some predictions on the above?

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1. GW - June 8, 2017

OK, I’ll play.

Tory majority of 40 to 60 seats.

If I’m not wrong again that would put the chance of Brexit without a deal at 60% or so.

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ivorthorne - June 8, 2017

This seems probable but fingers crossed we see a relatively high youth vote!

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Pasionario - June 8, 2017

That’s my hunch too. Labour seemed to lose momentum in the last few days. And like Miliband, Corbyn will suffer from the perception that he just doesn’t look like PM material.

A few side predictions: Clegg to lose in Sheffield; Cable to win in Twickenham; Long to win in Belfast East.

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2. irishelectionliterature - June 8, 2017

OK here goes (hopefully it all adds up correctly). I have optimism that the younger voters will come out. I also have optimism that when it goes to actually putting the X on the ballot paper , a gut instinct will take over and a good cohort of voters will not back the Tories…..
Hope is a terrible thing 🙂

Tory 320
Labour 255
SNP 49
LibDem 5
Plaid 3
Green 1

DUP 7
SF 5
SDLP 3
Ind 1
UUP 1
Alliance 1

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GW - June 8, 2017

So a Tory – Unionist coalition.

Worst of all possible results from a Irish point of view, isn’t it?

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3. Michael Carley - June 8, 2017

With hope outweighing expectation: 42-37%, hung parliament.

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sonofstan - June 8, 2017

Yeah, I’ll go with that.

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Michael Carley - June 11, 2017

And it was 42-40% and a hung parliament. Hope worked.

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4. Aonrud ⚘ - June 8, 2017

Even the best predictions suggest another five years of Tories, which I assume is why the BBC is offering this helpful advice as we come to terms with that:

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Aonrud ⚘ - June 8, 2017

Within the bounds of an expected Tory win, Armando Iannucci had the excellent suggestion that the most satisfying outcome would be the Tories returned with their majority reduced by one. The perfect self-servingly futile result!

Liked by 1 person

5. GW - June 8, 2017

Exit polls at 10 p.m. Irish / British time. They’ve been fairly accurate the last couple of times.

If it’s not close I don’t think I’ll stay up.

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6to5against - June 8, 2017

How did we do on the last few wisdom – of – crowds? Did we average anywhere near the correct result?

But anyway for the today I think a reduced tory majority of 10 ish seats.

My slight optimism comes from one aspect of the turnout issue that I think has forgotten – or taken for granted – the older voters. Have the tories among them been given anything to vote for today? More austerity, less services, a brexit far harder than they voted for, or one they voted against. It has to be the least enticing tory offering in the last 50 years. If a small number stay at home and a few more kids can shift themselves, then who knows?

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Aonrud ⚘ - June 8, 2017

Here’s the last UK election thread 🙂
https://cedarlounge.wordpress.com/2015/05/04/the-wisdom-of-this-crowd-the-result-of-the-uk-ge/

From a quick skim it looks most expected a Tory coalition, some Labour/SNP. Then again, the whole media and political class pretty much refused to believe John Curtice’s exit polls showing a Tory majority, if I recall correctly.

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GW - June 8, 2017

Thanks for that. So last time I was:

“But my water is telling me the Tories will cobble something together with the Lib Dems.”

WRONG!

What I’m reasonably sure of is that the poor will get poorer and the rich richer during the term of the next UK government.

RIGHT!

(But the latter was a no-brainer).

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6. ivorthorne - June 8, 2017

I see the last thing Teresa May said yesterday was an appeal to non-Tories to lend her their votes so she can implement Brexit.

She’s really counting on those UKIPers.

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GW - June 8, 2017

That’s the way racist and anti-immigration parties often work – they move the ‘consensus’ right, along with the conservative mainstream, which then profits from the transfers.

It’s happening here in Germany with the AfD and the CDU.

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irishelectionliterature - June 8, 2017

Reminds me of this from the National Front in the 70’s… It’s mainstream now in the UK.

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GW - June 8, 2017

“Make Britain Great Again”

A classic.

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ivorthorne - June 8, 2017

UKIP made the BNP and now the Tories are leaving UKIPers without purpose. Depressing.

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Dermot O Connor - June 8, 2017

Craig Murray’s been pointing out that the 2017 tory manifesto is eerily similar to the 2005 BNP one.

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2017/06/now-more-than-ever/

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7. GW - June 8, 2017

A ‘sign of hope’ ™ maybe:

research by Enders Analysis has found that most shared news and opinion on social media was pro-Labour. It also said that Facebook was the primary digital advertising platform for the Conservatives and Labour, but added that only half of the UK electorate are active users.

I mean only half the electorate being active Farcebook users.

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8. Tawdy - June 8, 2017

Ok, it looks like it`s left to me to bring a shard of optimism to you all.

So, here goes. I ventured to suggest that Trump would get elected, while I`m not in the least bit happy that he was, I was correct.

I had serious misgivings about Le Pen and Macron so I held fire. They were the finalists in that charade, with Macron the winner??

Now I feel in my gut, while agreeing with most on here that it will be close, the Tories are about to be brought to a sudden halt to face reality. I would suggest that the plan of action of the BLP is succeeding and we are about to see a huge change of direction orchestrated by them. The British electorate are a canny lot and like the Irish electorate know how to deliver a bloody nose when it suits.

My prediction, without anything to back it up is simple, Labour to win.

If they don`t win, in the future, how can they lose?

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9. NollaigO - June 8, 2017

I’ll be pleased if Labour get over 240 (232 at last election) but it could be a lot worse. Can’t see the Tories getting less than 340 seats.

In the last few days the Tories and their friends in the media made terrorism and the defence of the state the dominant issues.
Emotive one liners won out against any attempt at nuanced argument. (Haven’t you always been against ” shoot to kill”, Mr Corbyn – you friend of terrorists and opponent of all anti-terrorist legislation?)

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An Cathaoirleach - June 8, 2017

Very good piece in Marketing Week, describing the Conservative advertising campaign using Facebook.

https://www.marketingweek.com/2017/06/05/mark-ritson-​how-win-election/

I am very sceptical as to the role of the traditional mainstream media, particularly newspapers. Readership is very small and generally older.

Political advertising is about reinforcing your message and encouraging your electorate to get out and vote.

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10. FergusD - June 8, 2017

Well even if the BLP do well, against all the media, but don’t win (I don’t think we will – I am a member) the Blairites have already made their case that Corbyn must go. Tom Baldwin (Who he? Former Labour communications person apparently) has been on the TV at least twice (diferent channels) to say short of a stonking victory Corbyn must go. Can’t we expel all these creeps?

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Dermot O Connor - June 8, 2017

It’s a shame that there isn’t a party for these ‘liberal’ Blairite types who infest Labour. Y’know, a party run by liberals for liberals? If only such a think existed. Oh wait, it does.

Remember David Penhaligon? Cornwall Liberal MP, sadly killed in a car accident in 86. Asked why he’d gone into politics he said “Well, it wasn’t for power, if I’d wanted power I wouldn’t have joined the Liberals”.

Why don’t the Blairites join the LibDems? There’s the answer.

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11. sonofstan - June 8, 2017
12. Lamentreat - June 8, 2017

Pessimistic. 70-seat Tory majority, minimum. The British press is good at delivering elections, and the last week of their “terror-loving crazos” thing will have eaten into a Labour surge which was always a bit softer than it looked.

The Tories will act like the campaign never happened, headlong into hard Brexit, more brutal policies, more and bigger lies. Right-wing Labour comes out of hiding and also acts like the campaign never happened: cherry-pick a couple of popular Corbyn policies, and go for a new putsch.

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GW - June 8, 2017

Prognosis is depressingly likely.

But the resistance has agency as well.

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13. An Cathaoirleach - June 8, 2017

A nominal Conservative majority of 60, effective majority of 80 with UUP & DUP and of course Provo abstentionism

Conservatives 355 (45%)

Labour 215 (34%)

UKNI 18 (3%)

SNP 47 (4%)

Lib Dems 11 (10%)

GP 1 (2%)

PC 3 (<1%)

Conservatives & SNP heavily overrepresented because of first past the post, Labour marginally under-represented (about 6 seats or 3% less than estimate), because of the SNP, Lib Dems, Greens & UKIP massively under-represented because of the FPTP electoral system.

Interesting to note that the SNP are likely to be (proportionately) the most over represented party again, getting 44% more seats than they should get in a more proportionate system, against 17% for the Conservatives.

With an ever decreasing number of marginal seats, it appears that, without a collapse in the Conservative vote in their core areas, it is almost impossible to see them losing in five years time, whatever happens.

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14. GW - June 8, 2017

Weather-gods on the side of the Tories. From the British Met office:

Heavy rain and stronger winds in south-west England, Wales and northern England will move into Northern Ireland and later into Scotland. In the west, the rain will be replaced by heavy showers. The south-east will stay dry, though breezy.

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15. sonofstan - June 8, 2017

Evidence of youth vote getting out; 2 people, both mid-twenties and old enough to have voted at least twice before telling me proudly they voted for the first time today

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16. Miguel62 - June 8, 2017

Emerging from long time lurking status to attempt legend status with a bold prediction! Labour/SNP to win majority based on the comfortable pensioner vote swinging dramatically to Labour because:

A) Labour and SNP are guaranteeing to keep the “triple lock”
B) Tories proposing the “dementia tax”
C) Labour offering free 3rd level to their grandkids

and D) a general sense that Teresa May has fucked up and is making a mess of the campaign.

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WorldbyStorm - June 8, 2017

That’d be nice. And very much appreciate the contribution.

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17. Jolly Red Giant - June 8, 2017

My prediction – chicken little to disappear over the horizon – and the next job on the list is to dump the Blairites out of the LP.

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GW - June 8, 2017

Chicken little is probably taking some well-earned time off with your Brexit ally here.

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GW - June 8, 2017

Or here even.

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GW - June 8, 2017
Jolly Red Giant - June 8, 2017

Seriously GW – is that the best you can do

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WorldbyStorm - June 8, 2017

A damn sight better than the stuff you’ve come out with in recent times JRG. From being a critiquing voice which had many useful things to say at times you’ve moved into sub-trolling territory at a rapid rate of knots. It’s all too redolent of the bad old days on Politics.ie which this site was established to move away from.

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Jolly Red Giant - June 8, 2017

Sometimes a bit of ridicule is the only option.

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Jolly Red Giant - June 8, 2017

And the standard of discussion about Brexit and the election is not far off p.ie at the moment.

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WorldbyStorm - June 8, 2017

No one forces you to comment here. Indeed given your obvious lack of sympathy or respect with or for others here I have to wonder why you bother.

But be that as it may, it is notable that of all the comments on this thread today, a hugely important one for the left on these islands and perhaps a bit more widely, yours is the one which introduces a bum note. Rather than getting to grips with the challenges ahead your only intention seems to be to slag off people here all of who are leftists and the site itself.

When someone reaches that point in interactions here there’s only two options. Your choice.

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GW - June 8, 2017

Yea, you’re right JRG – apologies that was uncalled for.

Not suggesting SP in any way is on the same page as UKIP.

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WorldbyStorm - June 8, 2017

Be that as it may and there’s no comparison when people comment saying others are chicken little it’s not good enough.

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18. Dermot O Connor - June 8, 2017

AK’s final estimate.

https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2017/06/08/predicting-seat-levels-in-the-2017-uk-general-election-based-on-recent-opinion-poll-figures-8th-june-2017/

Conservatives 343 (up by 13 seats relative to 2015),
Labour Party 235 (up by 3 relative to 2015),
Scottish National Party 44 (down by 12 relative to 2015),
Liberal Democrats 6 (down by 2 relative to 2015),
Plaid Cymru 3 (NC relative to 2015),
Green Party 0 (down by 1 relative to 2015) and
United Kingdom Independence Party 0 (down by 1 relative to 2015)

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WorldbyStorm - June 8, 2017

This would have seemed a miraculous result even a month ago. It tells us how far things have progressed that it now is disappointing in the extreme. But for the LP to go up would in and of itself be fantastic.

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GW - June 8, 2017

I’d take that as a reasonably good result.

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19. Liberius - June 8, 2017

The anecdotes do seem to suggest an increased youth turnout, that could indicate Labour outdoing their polling, albeit I’m not keen on anecdote as it has an annoying habit of being vulnerable to confirmation bias. I’m thinking conservative majority of some description is the likely scenario even with a high youth turnout as some of those smaller towns with Labour MPs have been hemorrhaging youth for years (internal migration toward bigger urban areas). Some places like Leeds North-West and Brighton Kempton could fall to Labour, maybe some gains out of a retreating SNP.

Con 340+
Lab 200+
SNP 45+
Others ?? (squeezed, possibly to near oblivion)
NI 18 (change, yeah right…)

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20. ivorthorne - June 8, 2017

At a minimum, we need Corbyn to get a higher vote share than his predecessors.

Liked by 1 person

21. makedoanmend - June 8, 2017

FWIW,

Just back from voting in Scotland (c. 18:45) and it pishing down from the heavens. I’ve never seen the voting station as busy (bar the referendum) and at least c. 40% were under 30 yo voters. Caveat: much of the improved turn out will be tory who spent loads of dosh this election, but the < 30 yo % has to be encouraging for the future. [Caveat 2: this of course is only ancedotal]

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ivorthorne - June 8, 2017

I voted today in a Tory safe seat constituency. Was there actually any point? Aside from avoiding guilt.

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WorldbyStorm - June 8, 2017

Yes, if only to keep the percentage LP vote higher than it otherwise would be. It genuinely is crucial that it gets as much of the vote as possible. Btw I never realised you were in the U.K.

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ivorthorne - June 8, 2017

Moved over about 3 years ago! Hopefully, I’ll get back someday. Thank FG and Labour for the move.

I agree but it is such a small reward on a personal level. With PRSTV, it always feels like I’ve made some difference.

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WorldbyStorm - June 8, 2017

But you voted and that’s the main thing (in solidarity). Hope it’s going well for you there.

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makedoanmend - June 8, 2017

I hear yee. It doesn’t make much sense voting in the shite FSTP system especially when a seat is so effing safe.

Yet I feel I must vote in any all cases. It lets the TINA bastards know there are people who want an alternative and can foresee viable alternatives. I may be a wee yapping, broken eared chicuahua nipping at the heels of the stalwart bulldog but, feck it, they’ll have to stomp my arse into the ground before I stop my annoying yapping. Feck’em

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ivorthorne - June 8, 2017

Feck em! And hopefully they get fecked over tonight!

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22. E C - June 8, 2017

Tories to get their victory. Labour % of vote the thing. The awful first past the post method and it’s distortions mitigate against any really big swings.
A concerted unrelenting campaign for Proportional Representation ought to be the first priority for all opposition parties in UK in future. No compromises. And yeh it might give extremists a better chance, though that isn’t the fault of better democracy.
Corbyn has if nothing else given people some hope. Credit where credit is due

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23. sonofstan - June 8, 2017

I find it very hard to explain PR/STV to people here – maybe I make it sound too complicated, but I tend to lose them at ‘when a candidate reaches the quota, which is defined as the number of votes cast divided by the number of seats plus one, her surplus is distributed according to second preferences…..’

you can see how it confuses people who grow up with ‘the candidate who wins the most number of votes is declared elected’

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GW - June 8, 2017

I never bother about the quotas, unless they ask. Just say that there’s a list for each constituency and it’s a knock out system, and the last so many get in.

Most people seem to like it – I’ve always said it’s one of the better systems of representative democracy.

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24. GW - June 8, 2017

A question – I’ve never watched British TV on the t’Internet from ‘abroad’. Does anyone know how and where you can do this? Just for a bit of the election.

Googling is no help whatsoever. And I really don’t want to watch it in German or French.

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GW - June 8, 2017

Got Radio 4 here:

That’ll do me.

Forgotten about science weekly. Perhaps there’s a podcast.

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Lamentreat - June 8, 2017

This claims Twitter will be streaming BBC election night coverage when it starts.
https://www.digitaltrends.com/social-media/bbc-live-stream-twitter-uk-election/
I’m outside the UK and watched one of the earlier BBC election specials via the main Twitter page. It was a tiny little window but otherwise no problem.

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25. sonofstan - June 8, 2017

OT, but the Guardian had a note before the comments today warning people not to post details of how and where they had voted as it would be in contravention section 66a of the Representation of the People Act 1983. I’ve looked and the section forbids exit polls or publishing info based on reports of how people voted before the polls close. Given half the country was probably posting on SM how they voted and where, and probably taking pictures and that politicians certainly do, this seems OTT

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26. Gerryboy - June 8, 2017

BBC interviewer: So what went wrong then, Mrs. May/Mr. Corbyn?

Honest answer: We didn’t get enough votes.

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27. roddy - June 11, 2017

With regard to not posting details of how you voted being in breach ofsection 66a of whatever ,thousands of people up here would have done jail in the 80s and 90s.West Belfast voters in particular used to flaunt their “Adams x” ballot papers in the faces of RUC men who stood inside the polling rooms.!

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