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UK General Election Night Thread June 8th 2017 June 8, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Exit polls, projections, what have you, observations from the ground. All here. And starting now an hour before polls close…

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1. Gerryboy - June 8, 2017

We’ll be wise after the event. Some of us who have asserted wildly wrong predictions are going to have to eat our hats. Does anybody have a safe recipe for hat soup?

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GW - June 8, 2017

Marinate it in plenty of red wine first helps, I find.

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Gerryboy - June 8, 2017

Can I lace it with VSOP brandy and serve it Flambé, like plum pudding at Christmas?

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GW - June 8, 2017

If you like a bit of carbon with your felt – give it a try.

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2. GW - June 8, 2017

Tories loose majority according to exit poll!

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3. GW - June 8, 2017

T 314
Lab 266
SNP 34

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4. sonofstan - June 8, 2017

Hung parliament according to exit poll
Con 314
Lab 268 (I think)

Fucking hell ….

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WorldbyStorm - June 8, 2017

Please let it be!

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ivorthorne - June 8, 2017

+1

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Michael Carley - June 8, 2017

Hope may beaten experience in our case.

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sonofstan - June 8, 2017

Are you suggesting there’s no advantage at all in being old(er)?!

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5. GW - June 8, 2017

Stipe me – they might have done it!

Incredible.

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6. GW - June 8, 2017

Gains for Lab in Scotland.

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WorldbyStorm - June 8, 2017

Wow

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7. Dermot O Connor - June 8, 2017

Holy fuuuuuuu ~!!!!!!! This looks like being a FUN night.

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WorldbyStorm - June 8, 2017

Better, fingers crossed, that we could have hoped for… a long way to go, but some light

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Dermot O Connor - June 8, 2017

Lab 266 NSP 35 LD 14 PC 3 GRN 1

= 319, not counting the SDLP, and SF abstentions.

NOT impossible JC could be PM.

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WorldbyStorm - June 8, 2017

Tricky but… the sweetest thing is if this is right how it will screw up the Tories!

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EWI - June 8, 2017

Time for the ABT Coalition (Anyone But the Tories).

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bjg - June 8, 2017

How about Con 314 + DUP 11 = 325? The [UK] Independent had an article some days ago suggesting that the DUP would be delighted to support Ms May. bjg

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benmadigan - June 9, 2017

you called it right BJG

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WorldbyStorm - June 9, 2017

+1 benmadigan

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8. sonofstan - June 8, 2017

I had resigned myself to a night’s sleep….!

Liked by 1 person

9. irishelectionliterature - June 8, 2017

Incredible exit poll….a long night yet though

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WorldbyStorm - June 8, 2017

Snap!

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10. GW - June 8, 2017

But exit poll in 2015 was 22 seats off…

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Liberius - June 8, 2017

It would have to be very off to make a difference to the narrative that will flow out of this; and if it is accurate then I’m happy my pessimism proved unfounded.

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GW - June 8, 2017

Me too – feels great to be ‘wrong on the internet.’!

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WorldbyStorm - June 8, 2017

On a tangent our thoughts yesterday about what if the LP had been more united. What a lost opportunity. I don’t often personalise my politics but if the LP wins seats then Perkins and Toynbee amongst others will have to think long and hard about the damage they inflicted.

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sonofstan - June 8, 2017

Yesterday’s women. If Corbyn ‘wins’ this election it was Stormzy/ JME/ Novelist wot won it.

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WorldbyStorm - June 8, 2017

🙂

BTW, did you see Caroline Lucas’s tweet… “to be clear, Greens will *never* support a Tory government”

Our GP could take a lesson from that.

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sonofstan - June 8, 2017

that supposes a capacity to learn in our GP

Liked by 1 person

makedoanmend - June 8, 2017

There can be no argument with the sentiment nor the logic behind your statement – this may truely turn out to be a missed opportunity of a lifetime.

But, maybe the electorate and especially young people needed to see what the difference between a Blairite and a full blooded Labour member really is all about. The BLP manifesto brought the differences into the full light of day. A decent electoral result may act as a spur.

As you’ve pointed out before the road back to normality will be a long and hard fought struggle for democratic workers and peoples. Maybe today may act as a further sign post.

best

Liked by 1 person

WorldbyStorm - June 8, 2017

I think you’re right and I think it will act as a spur.

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11. GW - June 8, 2017

Whatever Momentum and Corbyn have played a blinder.

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ivorthorne - June 8, 2017

+1

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12. sonofstan - June 8, 2017

Oh, Jeremy Corbynnnnnn…to the tune of Seven Nation Army

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13. sonofstan - June 8, 2017

Piers Morgan was predicting 400+ seats for the scum about half an hour ago 🙂

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Lamentreat - June 8, 2017

Ha, makes it all the sweeter…

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14. fergal - June 8, 2017

Hey, hey- early days yet- Is Jez a water- walker after all…thrilled, fingers crossed

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15. ivorthorne - June 8, 2017

UUP/DUP in coalition?

Even then, we have to say Corbyn has been excellent. This has been a big FU to the Blairites.

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16. GW - June 8, 2017

Crossing fingers it’s not Tory & Unionist…

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Dermot O Connor - June 8, 2017

Not so sure. Imagine a Con/DUP min.gov, teetering on for a few months, another GE in a year or so. Walking Dead.

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fergal - June 8, 2017

GW- sounds dreadfu but look at it this way- the DUPers have come out officially against a hard border on the island..

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17. sonofstan - June 8, 2017

“At a recent press conference Francis Elliott, the Times’ political editor, asked Jeremy Corbyn if he would take Sinn Fein’s MPs (there were four in the last parliament) to reconsider their opposition to sitting in the House of Commons in the event of Labour being a minority government.

Labour activists booed Elliott, and Emily Thornberry told him it was a “stupid” question.

It does not look so stupid now.”

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18. Miguel62 - June 8, 2017

Well, well, well! Who’dda thunk it? Modesty forbids but I did predict Lab/SNP majority earlier today. Probably a bit too much to hope for but if the exit poll overestimates the tory vote as much as it underestimated it last time round, might still happen. And that would be consistent with my theory that middle class pensioners swung to Labour but were too shy to admit it to the exit pollsters.

Liked by 1 person

GW - June 8, 2017

Kudos Miguel.

And may be the ‘phone your gran’ campaign worked.

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Dermot O Connor - June 8, 2017

apparently the SNP exit poll nos. are based on some very close contests. So take that low SNP # with a pinch of salt.

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WorldbyStorm - June 8, 2017

Anyone find the raw percentages

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WorldbyStorm - June 8, 2017

And by the way, fair dues Miguel… hope it is there or thereabouts.

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6to5against - June 8, 2017

Are they predicting all of those SNP seats to go to labour? That’s a bad night for the SNP.

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6to5against - June 8, 2017

I wonder if they swung to the LP or if they just stayed at home. Even elderly Tories must yearn for a bit of inspiration every now and then, and they can’t have found any over the last few weeks.

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19. sonofstan - June 8, 2017

R4 keep quoting Gideon as this being ‘totally catastrophic’ for May. Not hiding his glee much

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WorldbyStorm - June 8, 2017

Did you read this:

“It adds up for the conservatives … they’re the largest party clearly it adds up if they get the Irish votes and they can persuade anyone else to back them … if you add up the Labour votes and they will be the people that feel they’ve done well out of this nevertheless they’re well short even if the Lib Dems and SNP support them… so it’s a difficult situation.”

Gleeful indeed. BTW the ‘Irish’ eh? Hmmm… Wonder how the DUP would feel about that description.

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20. GW - June 8, 2017

An extra 3m people were registered in the last 5 weeks – down to the efforts or Momentum.

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21. Miguel62 - June 8, 2017

Paddypower has May @ 4/9 to be PM. JC @ 13/8. That’s too close to call – it’s going to be a looooonnnnnnggggggg night. But a fun one!!

Tory majority and No Overall Majority both @ 5/6.

Liked by 1 person

6to5against - June 8, 2017

As I often say, Miguel, all of life is 5/6…..

Liked by 2 people

Miguel62 - June 9, 2017

Paddypower having second thoughts. No Overall Majority @ 1/7; Tory Majority 5/1; Lab Majority 7/1.

PM odds: May 4/6; JC 6/5; And Boris @ 10/1!

BBC still talking about a possible tory majority? I’d back paddy; he knows this stuff.

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Miguel62 - June 9, 2017

BBC now forecasting Tories to finish on 322 (a mere 4 seats short of a majority) – up from exit poll projection of 314.

Not consistent with Paddypower. I’m puzzled now???

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WorldbyStorm - June 9, 2017

Tory gains in Scotland outweighing losses elsewhere?

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Liberius - June 9, 2017

With the gains for SF & DUP in NI that means the Tories will stay in power; gains for anti-conservative & non-abstentionist parties would have forced a less secure minority situation.

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WorldbyStorm - June 9, 2017

True.

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Liberius - June 9, 2017

Tory gains in Scotland outweighing losses elsewhere?

Broadly, yes, SNP feeling an anti-Indyref2 wave, looking like -15% across Scotland.

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WorldbyStorm - June 9, 2017

Yes, interesting how that aligns with polls.

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Liberius - June 9, 2017

There is massive tactical voting in Scotland as well I should have added. Lib Dems could be net losers in England but still wind up with more seats overall because of the anti-SNP wave.

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WorldbyStorm - June 9, 2017

What’s the LDs upper limit would you say, by the way good that the odious Clegg is gone.

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Liberius - June 9, 2017

12, maybe less??

Clegg gone just now.

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WorldbyStorm - June 9, 2017

Better than they deserve. Good point on another issue elsewhere, Sun and Mail not looking quite as powerful this morning, changing times.

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Liberius - June 9, 2017

Vince Cable back and Farron now looking ‘knife edge’ to quote the BBC.

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WorldbyStorm - June 9, 2017

Oddly underpowered I always thought Farron was.

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Miguel62 - June 9, 2017

Odds changing really fast now. Tory majority 5/2; Lab 18/1; No Overall Majority 2/7.

PM odds: May 4/11 Jeremy 15/8

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WorldbyStorm - June 9, 2017

Expectations exceeded this evening 🙂 Michael White of the Guardian vindicated two years after he said Corbyn could well come to seem like the calm thoughtful guy ready to clean up the Tory mess.

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22. GW - June 8, 2017

Bobo Johnson top of the betting to be next Tory leader.

You can bring that on!

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23. 6to5against - June 8, 2017

When will this be decided? Maybe we should be getting up early rather than staying up late.

Liked by 1 person

WorldbyStorm - June 8, 2017

Great idea.

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GW - June 8, 2017

I’m wondering that.

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Miguel62 - June 8, 2017

In theory yes, but couldn’t bring myself up to bed now. First actual result from Newcastle shows 2% swing to Lab. Game on!

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24. sonofstan - June 8, 2017

UKIP derisory result in Newcastle.

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WorldbyStorm - June 8, 2017

And BLP up 2k. Promising.

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sonofstan - June 8, 2017

Labour up 10%
Less than exit prediction

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ivorthorne - June 8, 2017

It also looks like the UKIP vote is not swinging as far to the Cons as expected.

Fingers crossed.

Liked by 1 person

25. WorldbyStorm - June 8, 2017
sonofstan - June 8, 2017

Wycombe at 3.30am 😦
The Tory had his headquarters bedecked with Union jacks today – and only today.

Liked by 1 person

26. ivorthorne - June 8, 2017

Feeling quite happy right now in the knowledge that Teresa May is bricking it.

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WorldbyStorm - June 8, 2017

It’s the little things that count.

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27. sonofstan - June 8, 2017

A couple of thoughts about the exit poll. The two results so far suggest it could be out. But they are consistent with YouGov’s projections, which also showed a hung parliament.

From the NS

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WorldbyStorm - June 8, 2017

Yeah, and it’s very early in the game too.

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6to5against - June 9, 2017

But the exit poll surveys 35,000 people. The swing is not going to be uniform nationwide. They’re not making national predictions based on a scattering of interviews. Presumably they have a significant sample from all but the safest seats?

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WorldbyStorm - June 9, 2017

+1 and I see that john curtice says the LP is doing rather better than the poll.

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28. sonofstan - June 9, 2017

Labour looking at winning Kensington and Chelsea. That’s like Sinn Fein winning in Belfast East (OK, not quite)

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sonofstan - June 9, 2017

Suggestion that the tuition fees promise may have turned parents and grandparents and not just students – and in the event of tuition fees being abolished, those about to graduate with 50k of debt will feel a bit hard done by.

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WorldbyStorm - June 9, 2017

Amazing and Tory ministers in real danger.

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29. sonofstan - June 9, 2017

Labour also looking good in Warwick – Students!!!!

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6to5against - June 9, 2017

Are any universities in term still? Would students not have scattered to their home constituencies, or wherever they go during the summer?

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sonofstan - June 9, 2017

Some are, some aren’t. Some of our lot still have assessments today, others finished a week ago. Probably the same elsewhere

Liked by 1 person

30. Joe - June 9, 2017

I’m off to bed. See yis tomorrow.

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RosencrantzisDead - June 9, 2017

How can you slink off to the Land of Nod when it looks like the Tories are going to lose Battersea?

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sonofstan - June 9, 2017

And the chance of bidding farewell to Nick Clegg?

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Liberius - June 9, 2017

If you had any rum on hand I could give you some recipes that would keep you bouncing until morning joe.

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31. Jolly Red Giant - June 9, 2017

It should be noted that tuition fees were introduced by Blair’s government in 1998.

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Liberius - June 9, 2017

Douglas Alexander being a bit mealy-mouthed on the BBC right now, grudgingly admitting that Labour have done well; obviously pissed off that his wing of the party are now truly dead, the logic of their argument that you can’t do well with left policies haven’t been totally battered.

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Liberius - June 9, 2017

have been…

Maybe joe would actually be better off with bed rather than my exhortations towards rum based joviality

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sonofstan - June 9, 2017

“Am hearing Tories now giving up on a majority as they see more of the London results”

From the Spectator …..

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WorldbyStorm - June 9, 2017

Hah!

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WorldbyStorm - June 9, 2017

Just surveying the situation at 2 wow did the Tories screw this one up.

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WorldbyStorm - June 9, 2017

And wow did the LP play a blinder.

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WorldbyStorm - June 9, 2017

Phil Davies, say no more, and the NS’s The exit poll has shown the “Conservatives losing their majority, and it is now very clear that it will be borne out. If it is wrong, it is slightly understating the number of Labour gains.”

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32. Dermot O Connor - June 9, 2017

This is where it’s a great advantage to be on the West coast of the USA!!! This is great primetime viewing!

David Dimbleby is 78 years old, if he can do it, yiz all can!
How much redbull do you think he chugs between cutaways?

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33. Miguel62 - June 9, 2017

Seems to be a trend of total collapse of ukip vote, but breaking more to Lab than expected. A positive of course but does it herald a hardening Lab position on Brexit?

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sonofstan - June 9, 2017

I don’t know. Both the leave voters I know well are solid labour in all othe respects. It was never a simple left/ right thing.

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WorldbyStorm - June 9, 2017

Yep, and in fairness broadly speaking the LP position is sensible so it probably plays well to a broad range of views. One has to hope it will inflect the debate from here on out.

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34. Enzo - June 9, 2017

The Elephant in the room is with Sinn Fein having gained Foyle from the SDLP in NI and may win another, the golden number for a majority could drop by 2 to 324. SF helping the Tories!

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WorldbyStorm - June 9, 2017

Still as someone said that’s one line they won’t cross engaging with uk domestic politics. Interesting times ahead though.

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35. Dermot O Connor - June 9, 2017

LORD BUCKET HEAD! Do you think the security people made him take off his bucket-helmet, to check for explosives?

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36. Lamentreat - June 9, 2017

Wow. I called it so so wrong. Fatalism makes you blind, I should learn a little optimism from this.

By my count, the Tories need 310 now to be able to form a government, if the DUP get 11 and Sinn Fein 7. Does the Speaker subtract another one, like the Ceann Comhairle?

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WorldbyStorm - June 9, 2017

So did I. But what can one do? The key thing has been to support the LP. Enough people have to make today a very bad day for the Tories.

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37. Dermot O Connor - June 9, 2017

Vote Share (not final, but it’s 4.30am)
CON 43 LAB 40 LD 8 UKIP 2 GRN 2

Remember those pollsters?

BMG (tory lead 13) !!!
CON 46 LAB 33 LDEM 8 UKIP 5

ICM (tory lead 12)
CON 46(+1) LAB 34(nc) LDEM 7(-1) UKIP 5(nc)

ComRes (tory lead 10)
CON 44(-3) LAB 34(-1) LDEM 9(+1) UKIP 5(+1)

IPSOS/MORI (tory lead 8)
CON 44(-1) LAB 36(-4) LDEM 7(nc) UKIP 4(+2)

Panelbase (tory lead 8)
CON 44(nc) LAB 36(nc) LDEM 7(nc) UKIP 5(nc) GRN 2(-1)

Opinium (tory lead 7)
CON 43(nc) LAB 36(-1) LDEM 8(+2) UKIP 5(nc)

YouGov (tory lead 7)
CON 42 LAB 35 LDEM 10 UKIP 5 GRN 2

Kantar (tory lead 5)
CON 43(nc) LAB 38(+5) LDEM 7(-4) UKIP 4(nc)

Surveymonkey (tory lead 4)
CON 42(-2) LAB 38(nc) LDEM 6(nc) UKIP 4(nc)

Survation (tory lead 1) !!!
CON 41 LAB 40 LDEM 8 UKIP 2 GRN 2

*

Survation & Surveymonkey (and yougov before they chickened out and changed their methodology to follow the herd) were the closest.

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WorldbyStorm - June 9, 2017

That’s amazing. They is genuinely amazing.

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38. ivorthorne - June 9, 2017

Tory calls for May to go!

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ar scáth a chéile - June 9, 2017

Ah lads what a night . Comradely group hug ….get in JRG

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fergal - June 9, 2017

Snap- they threw everything bar the kitchen sink at Jez but he never backed down

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ivorthorne - June 9, 2017

Or lowered his tone.

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39. GW - June 9, 2017

Just woke up with a cup of tea.

Rubbed my eyes – it’s true!

Potential Tory government with the DUP as far as I can see.

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Dermot O Connor - June 9, 2017

One with a tiny majority, (4 or 5 seats); given the usual spate of by-elections, that majority won’t last long. Another GE within a year, unless they can dragoon others (but there are no others, unless they want to offer the SNP indieref2 or somesuch).

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GW - June 9, 2017

Yes – quite possible.

I don’t know where this leaves the Brexit process. Certainly the Brits have an even weaker negotiating position.

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GW - June 9, 2017

Customs union may remain – but what about the ‘immigration’ border through the island?

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40. GW - June 9, 2017

Tories need 12 seats to get government with the DUP. There are 12 ‘safe’ or ‘safer’ seats.

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GW - June 9, 2017

For the Tories, I mean.

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41. GW - June 9, 2017

But the Blairites are history. Compulsory reselection in the Labour Party may well go through. That in itself it great.

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42. GW - June 9, 2017

I’m happy for the Tories and the DUP to own Brexit from this point on until the next election which may well come soon.

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GW - June 9, 2017

But quite hard for the Tories to hold together over Brexit with that kind of majority.

Labour needs a well-thought-out position on Brexit in the event of another election.

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43. ivorthorne - June 9, 2017

For those who remember that I was pondering if there was a point of voting in a Tory safe seat constituency, it came down to 300 votes (0.5%). Labour were up 11.5. Frankly, I suspect if LD and Green voters had thought there was a chance of that scenario happening, Labour could have pulled it off!

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WorldbyStorm - June 9, 2017

That’s incredible. And room there to get it next time!

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sonofstan - June 9, 2017

Tories comfortably held Wycombe, but Labour vote up from 12 to 20k

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WorldbyStorm - June 9, 2017

There’s a youth amd other vote there that must scare the Tories. Kensington still in play!

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44. fergal - June 9, 2017

Time for a bit of a song?

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WorldbyStorm - June 9, 2017

Indeed yes

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45. ivorthorne - June 9, 2017

The DUP website crashes as the British Google “Who are the DUP?”.

You have to laugh.

Also possibly cry.

Liked by 2 people

GW - June 9, 2017

🙂 DDOSed by history.

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46. GW - June 9, 2017

This is interesting:

The results show an 8% swing from Conservatives to Labour in those seats that voted remain in last year’s referendum. In seats that voted leave there was a 1% swing from Labour to the Conservatives. It appears that Corbyn’s fudged Brexit stance proved highly efficient in minimising defections among leave voters while still proving positive enough for unhappy remain voters, especially in London.

Which suggests a ‘minimal Brexit’, plus possibly a second referendum would be a good line for Labour to take.

With yet another general election (possibly in spring next year) it’s important that they keep up the momentum (pun intended) among young people.

I was trying to work some of this out on the way to work and the whole thing is impossibly complicated and contingent.

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47. RosencrantzisDead - June 9, 2017

Some may have missed this:

Sums up the night, I think.

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GW - June 9, 2017

Yep – the Tory press has lost face and lost soft power.

Another tribute to Corbyn and his activists.

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ivorthorne - June 9, 2017

Excellent!

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ar scáth a chéile - June 9, 2017

That is very special

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48. Tawdy - June 9, 2017

Well the game plan nearly worked. A far better result could have been achieved but none the less the framework is in place for the BLP in the next election.

I was not far off. So I think the BLP are the overall winners.

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GW - June 9, 2017

Kudos to you too Tawdy.

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49. Jim Monaghan - June 9, 2017

I suppose Howlin and Burton will now claim to be Corbynistas. lol

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50. Joe - June 9, 2017

Slept like a baby :). Woke up to good news.
I think a May-led government is the best we could ask for right now. She’s useless, absolutely useless. The longer she hangs on the bigger the Labour landslide next time out.

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51. fergal - June 9, 2017

I’m not going to get in to a mud-slinging match with JRG but the person I would like to hear from now is that noted oracle that goes by the name of An Cathairleach 🙂 The ‘bearded buffoon done well, didn’t he’?

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WorldbyStorm - June 9, 2017

Yeah, that would be useful. She or he will presumably pop up in a month or two with amnesia about all this.

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52. Occasional lurker - June 9, 2017

There is a notion that the wave of populism was defeated but that misses the guy who really won this in one sense was the the ultimate outsider in British politics.

One one side you have the dup and in the other side a man who had a close familiarity with the Republican movement and I say that warmly.

This is radical.

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6to5against - June 9, 2017

The image of David Cameron in the commons, calling on Corbyn to go – in a tone that implied that all that socialism was nothing but a tired old sideshow, and that it was time to hand over to the grownups, that image has been floating around in my head all day.

Don’t know why….

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WorldbyStorm - June 9, 2017

There was such a level of bile directed towards him personally and from some nominally on his own side. I’m trying to think of another recent example of same and I can’t.

Liked by 1 person


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