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A poll! June 26, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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As reported on RTÉ, DailyMail/Ireland Thinks offers us a poll this morning…

FG 31% +6

FF 26% -1

SF 15% -1

LP 7% +2

GP 4% +2

SD 2%

Solidarity-PBP 2%

Inds/Others 11% -4

________

MOE 2.8%

Interesting if replicated in other polls. The overall bands of support are not dissimilar to SBP etc polls in the last six months to a year. That movement between Inds/Others and FG somewhat different to the last poll which showed movement between FG and FF to FG’s advantage. Still, and all. Is this the Varadkar bounce? And if so is it enough? And what of the left? No sign of a Corbyn bounce (unless that extra couple of percentage points on the LP indicates an almost osmotic dynamic).

 

 

 

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Comments»

1. irishelectionliterature - June 26, 2017

Same pattern, an election and we’d have either FF or FG in government in the same boat as the present crowd needing a confidence and supply arrangement.
I’ve been away but FF seem to be throwing a lot into this judicial appointments business …. seems to be something most people couldn’t give a shit about and that FF would have done themselves.

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WorldbyStorm - June 26, 2017

Yeah thus has limited traction on the public – its more what happens to FF FG ‘relations’!

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irishelectionliterature - June 26, 2017

Thats true , I think part of it is optics to appeal to the Grassroots. FF are picking the wrong fight. Martins remarks in the Dail seemed to be of a very personal nature (which is quite unlike him) , I wonder is he under pressure from the “gung ho , Fuck FG, lets have an election and we’ll be back on top again” wing of the party.
God knows there are plenty of other issues out there that the public actually care about.

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WorldbyStorm - June 26, 2017

I wondered why he was so personalised. It was completely counter productive.

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2. 6to5against - June 26, 2017

It might be a little more thoughtful than that. Martin will know this doesn’t really resonate as an issue, but it does form part of the background noise. And if the background noise suggests that FG are a little dodgy and inclined to pull FF-style-strokes, that’s all to the good as far as Martin is concerned. It prevents FG running with ethics as an election issue in the near future, or at least defangs them a bit if they try to do so.

Its the sort of politics that makes sense when there’s nothing important to be worrying about.

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WorldbyStorm - June 26, 2017

That makes sense too, so the dirt might stick so to speak.

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3. ivorthorne - June 26, 2017

FF really are struggling but at this point. Beyond tradition, why would anyone have a preference for FF over FG.

FF end up looking submissive to FG. They give leadership on virtually no issue. They quip and moan when FG push boundaries but they always end up being compliant.

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4. Dermot O Connor - June 26, 2017

AK’s breakdown (one joy of this would be the utter despair it would instill in the Soldiers of Dysentry). This cosy little short term supply/con arrangement could, it seems, start looking like a medium to long chinese finger trap, and not much fun to a party of self-serving careerists.

https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2017/06/26/fine-gael-experiencing-a-leo-leap-constituency-level-analysis-of-the-ireland-thinksdail-mail-opinion-poll-26-june-2017/

Fine Gael 63
Fianna Fail 46
Sinn Fein 26
Labour Party 8
Solidarity-People Before Profit 1
Social Democrats 2
Green Party 3
Independents 9

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WorldbyStorm - June 26, 2017

Very interesting breakdown of figures there DOC. I know it’s more the trend than the figures but amazing (and troubling) how relatively small movements at the lower end impact on seat numbers.

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Liberius - June 26, 2017

I’ve said it before but it is worth repeating, d’hondt (as a system it favours the largest party, in this it will over estimate both FG and FF) isn’t the best way of modelling seat distribution in Ireland given the low number of seats per constituency and the impact of transfers at with the last seats.

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Dermot O Connor - June 27, 2017

Yeah, hard to see Sol/PBP only getting 1 seat. And if the Greens get a 3rd, which constituency? Buggered if the results of last year have any of their other candidates with an asses’ roar.

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