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Poll projection June 29, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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We’ve all long argued that it is unwise to take too seriously seat projections in respect of polls. And in fairness so has Adrian Kavanagh whose latest projection is here. I’ve noted previously  on many occasions that such projections are good really only for seeing the broad dynamics, that in individual constituencies they’re simply not sufficiently robust – indeed, take Dublin Bay North at the last election – the interplay of preferences in that constituency saw remarkable outcomes. Or, Dublin Central, where Maureen O’Sullivan headed home thinking she had lost her seat only to discover that it was back in play and that she had held off her rivals.

So in terms of figures – and indeed constituencies, one would have to take with a significant pinch of salt the projections on foot of the latest Ireland Thinks/Daily Mail opinion poll. But… in terms of broader dynamics and in terms of broad outcomes it seems to me to be reasonably useful.

Kavanagh notes:

The 26th June Ireland Thinks/Daily Mail opinion poll estimates party support levels as follows: Fianna Fail 26% (down 1% relative to the previous Ireland Thinks/Daily Mail opinion poll), Fine Gael 31% (up 6%), Sinn Fein 16% (down 1%), Independents and Others 19% (down 6%) – including Solidarity-People Before (-4) Profit 2% (-1), Social Democrats 2% (-2), Green Party 4% (+1), Independents 11% Labour Party 7% (up 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows:  Fianna Fail 46, Fine Gael 63, Sinn Fein 26, Labour Party 8, Solidarity-People Before Profit 1, Social Democrats 2, Green Party 3, Independents 9.  

Keep in mind how much of what we see is within the MOE. But these figures do tally near enough with other recent polls.

 

Take from earlier in June the ST/B&A poll:

Fianna Fail 29% (+2 points)

Fine Gael 29% (+1)

Sinn Fein 18% (unchanged)

Independent Alliance 5% (+1)

Labour 5% (+1)

Greens 3% (+1)

Solidarity/PBP 1% (unchanged)

Other Independents 9% (-3)

Social Democrats 1% (unchanged)

And from the end of May, SBP/RedC

FG 29 +5 (

FF 21 -7 (!!)

SF 15 -3

Ind 14 +4

Lab 6

SD 4

IA 3 +1

SolPBP 3 -1

Green 3

Renua 1

Ors 1 +1

We’ve seen a decided softening of the SDs and S-PBP’s support level – I have to wonder if the adoption of a new name has been a bit problematic in the latter case. Again, movements are largely within the MOE, but nonetheless reflected across polls but the LP seems to have gained a bit of support. The Green Party likewise.

I don’t think that were an election held tomorrow Solidarity-PBP would only return with one seat – but on these poll ratings they could see some losses. Nor do I think the SDs would lose all their two seats – but they could be in trouble. The Labour vote is intriguing. I’ve long been dubious about the idea they could be wiped out completely – there’s simply too many of them, councillors, etc about. That gives them some electoral mass (and consider how the GP has returned from an even worse straits). At a minimum I’d expect them to return with two or three seats on their worst day. But could it be that the SDs forward momentum halting has seen some of their support move back to the LP as the bigger game in town? And could it be that absence and a somewhat oppositional profile is making their participation in the last government a bit hazy in the recollection?

Sinn Féin is in an interesting position. Now large enough to carry itself through on seat numbers even with dips in its polling share. For it to return with 26 seats would be a very positive outcome for it – even if its forward march was somewhat halted – though that too would represent an uptick on its current numbers by two or three seats. As a coherent bloc it would be in a strong position as the opposition in the context of a further deal between FF and FG.

As to the Independents – there’s little question that they’re under pressure now, all of them, left and right. Given that 27 were returned in 2016 a fall to single or even to low double digits would signify a huge retreat for them.

Of course it doesn’t have to be like this. On a good day they might return 15. But if there is a consolidation of votes for the larger parties – those being FG and FF, that has to have impacts across the board as others lose first, second and other preferences and consequently lose seats.

But this poll poses many questions. Are we really seeing FG and Varadkar prise support from Inds/Others? And how long will that last? Or is it  about fluctuations between FG and FF?

And what of government formation? For a deeply frustrating dynamic (for FG) comes into play. For it to remain in government its likely partners see a fall off in numbers. There’s simply too few Independents about. And the LP may not play ball. And even were all those Inds and the LP to work in tandem with FG that would barely see them across the line. And is it tenable that all those Inds would be of a mind to do so? Though there is the GP and the SDs.

One other option on the Kavanagh figures presents itself – and all necessary caveats apply in terms of the numbers being projections – that is an FF/SF/LP coalition. Or perhaps an FF/SF/GP/SD coalition.

We’ve seen more unlikely creatures emerge from the Irish political swamp.

Really, all that can be said is that at this point – and likely some time to come – there’s no clarity whatsoever in terms of party support and government formation. And that has to play into political calculation…

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Comments»

1. Dermot O Connor - June 29, 2017

Of course, between now and the result, a campaign. And my impression of Leo is that for all his faults, he’ll wipe the floor with MM in a way that Enda never could, while singing the national anthem “sure aren’t we a grand little country, yes we are, we are a grand little country”.

Wild card#1 is SF, and whether or not Gerry will be SF leader or Mary Lou. If MLM, then Mickey Martin is going to start looking like expired gravy poured on dogshit.

Demoralisation for FF on these numbers, ANOTHER sleazy spin of ‘supply and demand’, and after all their games of the preceding year or two, what is their reward? Another TWO bloody seats? So much for Conor “we’re ba-ack” Lenihan.

MM looks like being the first FF leader never to be Taoiseach. God, they must really hate Sinn Fein, to pay a tax like that.

Greens & SDs – Hard call for greens, but I’m guessing SDs, if they don’t make a breakthrough, will say “screw it”, and go in with FG. Might as well get some cabinet bennies before the nice-try party goes off into the boneyard. They can wave at that quisling careerist Donnelly from the govt. benches. “haha you twat. ooh, look at my pension! ooh la la, steeeephen. You look so cold over there in permanent opposition! I’m minister for pensions now. MY pensions! Merc how you go I mean mind how you go.”

Following the next election (on these numbers returning the same hapless FG/Ind arrangement, but with a larger number of seats for FG/Ind, maybe SD/Grn for giggles), imagine the careerist FF’ers, looking out into the rapidly approaching 2020s, thinking: “Jesus, how long can this go on?” And then, of course, they have the retirement of GERRY to contend with, either before the next GE, but certainly the one after. Those bloody Shinners, the grain of sand in heaven’s eye. WHY won’t they just GO AWAY? They’re RUINING this tweedle dee scam for EVERYONE!!!

Like political beer-goggles, Mary Lou will start to look like a good bedfellow to FF after year 7 or 8 or 9 in the ‘opposition’ tundra. “In the national interest, going forward, in the great republican tradition of serving the people blah blah blah we have decided to put the past behind us and (gag) join our Republican cousins in Sinn Fein in the (gag) national interest, we are where we are, blah blah blah going forward going forward”

– but that may require a few years yet? Who knows?

Greens acting as a brake on Labour now, even as Labour show some signs of moving out of their 5% coma (all MOE, but still). The Wexford goblin is squinting at the Greens 4% enviously, and reaching for his bodkin. He grasps the bodkin so tightly that the whites of his knuckles look like the eyes a bird-eating spider from the amazon rainforest.

Those hippie carrot munchers, the Wexford goblin grins. They’ll be sorry they crossed Rumpelstiltskin, oh yes, yes they will, tee hee hee. First, let’s see how many years Paul Murphy got. Just open the Irish times and … what?

what? NOT GUILTY?

AIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEeeeeeee

Wild card #2: the constant danger of another financial catastrophe on the scale of (or greater than) 2008. TAE is a hand site to follow if you like such joys. Should this occur, then woe to the one in power at the time. We’ll Golden Bough that king so fast he’ll still be blinking before his head hits the bog.
https://www.theautomaticearth.com

my 2 cents. They might be crazy, but they’re saner than the drivel that passes for comment in the bloody indo.

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2. sonofstan - June 29, 2017

“he’ll wipe the floor with MM”
I’m not convinced. No more than TM, a sure fire winner in Maidenhead and a disaster anywhere outside the leafier bits of the home counties, Leo’s appeal may falter on the road.

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6to5against - June 29, 2017

I imagine Leo will perform creditably in debates, that he will be hailed for his qualities in the IT, and that following an election, there will be much head scratching in the media as to how he didn’t win and how come MM is Taoiseach.

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Dermot O Connor - June 30, 2017

Could LV do worse than Enda? Hard to see how. EK, remember, is a man who needed a note with “empathy empathy empathy” written on it to remind him to pretend to be a human.

In the game of who most resembles TM (i.e., a non-entity who walks into the top job because everyone more qualified blunders into garden rakes and custard pies, a non-entity who doesn’t have the vaguest idea how real people live), it’s EK = TM, not LV.

Difference is, TM’s luck ran out a hell of a lot quicker.

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3. Jemmyhope - July 2, 2017

Hey WbS how come all parties and independents in your post are referred to as “they” or “them” while Sinn Féin are an “it”
Part of the dehumanising agenda?

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WorldbyStorm - July 2, 2017

I never noticed that but interesting – though I’m rarely critiqued for an anti-SF bias, usually it’s the opposite. Given I’d be broadly supportive of all those formation including SF that’s entirely unintentional. I wonder is that due to an opposite dynamic, that SF seems to me by dint of size and political weight and history to be something that is larger but also more cohesive whereas ‘they’ are – despite the fact I’d be again broadly supportive of all of them -much more varied as groups and individuals – i.e. smaller and with starkly different left perspectives (I4C, non I4C but allied with I4C in the Dáil, Solidarity, PBP, Solidarity/PBP, left Inds of various shades, etc etc).

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