No early election – so…

 

That’s the consensus in the SBP on foot of the latest RedC/SBP poll which shows FG on 27% and FF on 24%. As Michael Brennan in the SBP notes there’s been no ‘Leo leap’ or bounce and if anything it is FF that has profited with an increase of 3% in its polling. I think Brennan’s analysis is overly directed by in some instances marginal changes in party polling. For example, a 1% increase in GP is hardly meaningful and likely nothing to do even if it more than an artefact of polling with bin charges controversy. And I’m deeply dubious that a rise in Renua’s percentages of 2% is ‘significant’. We’ll see anyhow across more polls.

Granted so much of the changes for the smaller parties is down in low single digits anyhow so making any grand pronouncements is difficult.

But if the poll is correct and Independents have dropped from 14% to 8% with FF and SF being the obvious beneficiaries of those percentage points that raises other issues. This, counterintuitively, makes it more difficult to form a government for FG and FF. Smaller polling figures for Independents and fewer TDs returned. But if FG and FF figures remain static that means that SF is the going to prosper. But given neither of the other larger parties will work with SF we then see a continuation of the status quo into the future.

Adrian Kavanagh notes as much here…

 

The 28th May [date incorrect] Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll estimated party support levels as follows: Fianna Fail 24% (up 3% relative to the previous Red C opinion poll), Fine Gael 27% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 18% (up 3%), Independents and Others 25% (down 3%) – including Solidarity-People Before Profit 4%, Social Democrats 2%, Green Party 4%, Renua 3%, Independent Alliance 4%, Other Independents 8% – Labour Party 6% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 44, Fine Gael 52, Sinn Fein 30, Labour Party 4, Solidarity-People Before Profit 7, Renua 3, Social Democrats 2, Green Party 2, Independents 14. 

One can largely ignore the individual seat numbers (for example, Renua 3? Really?) while accepting the overall thrust of the poll, FF and FG more rather than less where they were.

And just on that Varadkar bounce… it would appear that the anticipation was better than the arrival of same. Note this from RedC SBP during the leadership campaign… 

 

Anyhow, as Richard Colwell in the SBP notes ‘overall the political landscape doesn’t look that different to where it was at the last election’ in relation to government formation. No one is going to be happy with that.

Perhaps the Summer will bring a change.