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Post 2017 UK GE stats August 2, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Some very intriguing material coming out of the studies of the recent UK General Election votes. This from the British Election Study which has tracked voters across years offers three in particular which stand out for me. First…

The latest set of data from the study team found that Brexit far outstripped any other single issue in the minds of voters prior to the election.

When asked to name the single most important subject facing the country, just over a third of the panel named Brexit, against about 10% each for terrorism and the NHS, with only about one in 20 citing the economy.

That’s the sort of stat where one begins to wonder can it be right. And yet, given the centrality of Brexit to the election as the Tories sought to shape it it does make sense. Not least because the LP offered what voters regarded as an acceptance of Brexit as a fact (rightly so in my view) and yet a willingness to offer a ‘softer’ albeit not hugely well defined version of it.

Labour picked up significant support from remain-minded voters, despite its ambiguous stance on what sort of Brexit deal to pursue.

And…

One question, about whether it was more important for the government to protect access to the single market or get full control of immigration, showed answers clearly split across party lines.

Labour had a lead of more than 40 percentage points with voters seeking the first priority, with a similar margin for the Tories among those who favoured the latter option.

Moreover for all the talk about Leave working class voters who had gone to UKIP returning to the BLP…

They found that more than half of those who voted Ukip in 2015 and voted again in 2017 backed the Conservatives, with only 18% going to Labour and the same proportion supporting Ukip again. The Tories took more than 60% of the leave vote overall.

And then there’s this, which I think is key…because perhaps little or none of the above would have quite manifested itself otherwise:

In 2015, Labour and the Conservatives both took about 25% of the late-moving votes, whereas in June, 54% went to Labour and just 19% to the Conservatives.

The authors said: “According to our data, the main reason that Labour gained so much in the campaign at the expense of the other parties is the strong performance of Jeremy Corbyn, especially relative to Theresa May.”

Excellent.

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