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Summer polls and polls… September 18, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

I’ve been scanning Adrian Kavanagh’s summer polls – in anticipation of the batch of polls no doubt heading our way this next month as the Dáil returns. They’re far from uninteresting. A couple of thoughts. FG – new leader and all, hardly managed to breach 30% across the recess. Essentially FG and FF have been hitting 27-30% – both of them, a lot of the time. The lowest either party went was FF’s 24% in a July SPB poll. But most of the time FF has been more robust than FG and hitting 30%.

SF has been remarkably consistent throughout, with most polls suggesting it is on 18%.

Inds and Others have been hitting 18-19%, that includes Independents and all smaller parties.

The LP hasn’t been included in that but has been in or about 5/6%. The highest it has gone has been 7% in a June poll for the Daily Mail.

As to the other parties and alliances, the IA has been getting 4/5%; Sol/PBP various figure between 1 and 7%(!), the SDs 1-2%, the GP 2-4%, various unaligned Independents (though this would presumably incorporate I4C) 8-9%. Even Renua is bumping along in some polls on 2%.

Interesting line from Ruth Coppinger at the Solidarity/PBP news conference the other day where she said that ‘At one time FF and FG alternated power between them, now they need each other to rule because they under 50% for the first time’. I don’t disagree with the broader point that they need each other, but unfortunately they’ve not dipped below 50% – either at election 2016 or at the polls across the Summer. Indeed their vote share has been up towards 55-60%.

So what to make of it all? Essentially little or no change is evident. Kavanagh’s seat projections (all necessary caveats apply – and he has many caveats himself) are fascinating – because they essentially show remarkably little change since the last election in terms of support. Granted both FG and FF may, on a good day, put on numbers, but they’re not huge numbers. Certainly others, perhaps all others, look set to lose seat numbers, but not huge numbers.

It doesn’t seem unreasonable to argue that the next election might see a remarkably similar cohort of TDs from all points of the political compass elected or re-elected. Though I’d bet we’ll see some consolidation of the larger parties – including on a good day SF.

Barring something unexpected.


1. Jim Monaghan - September 18, 2017

“Indeed their vote share has been up towards 55-60%.” Add in the independents with the same and maybe more extreme views on patronage and clientilsm, then well over 60%. I would say the surprising thing is that the party system has not disintegrated earler with PR. A bit of recognition of teh mountain the real Left ahs to climb, please. That the PbP/Solidarity are hopeing to go from 6 to 8 TDs says a lot. Many European countries have more than 2 bourgeois parties. Oh and as far left people at their conference have been saying, SF is getting coalition ready.
I think the bourgeoisie can sleep safely for a few years more.


Dermot O Connor - September 18, 2017

The bourgeoisie are doing very nicely out of the seat bonus / seat penalty of so-called “PR”; should keep their punch & judy show on the road for some time.

Don’t forget, FG got 33% in the most recent poll. 36% in 2011 got them 76 seats. If they start hitting low 30s, they’ll be in striking range of 70+, and will only need ~10 IND/Lab/GRN to stitch an actual coalition together. It’s very doable, especially if they can get the invisible hand out of their arseholes and do something about housing (but how strong are their ideological blinkers?)

Proportionally, FG should have won 40.8 seats last year, and FF should have won 38. Labour (or any party with 6%) should have won 10. A far cry from the result, particularly for FG. Only way around this is a list system, and that’s never going to be allowed.

BTW, the fact that Enda could only get 36% in 2011, in the teeth of the 2008 fallout, shows what electoral poison he was. That brake is off.

Another first: MM looking like being the only FF leader never to be Taoiseach. FF = just another party now.


2. Dermot O Connor - September 18, 2017

Add: Biggest threat to FG is the likelihood of another financial crisis, some 2008 redux (banking mess in China, or another american clusterfuck). If FG are lucky, that’ll happen early after the next GE, not prior. hard to see something like that NOT happening. That can has been kicked down the road for a very long time now.

It would be hysterical were FF to win back power, and have the next leg of the 2008 era hit when they’re in office.


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