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New ST/B&A Poll: FG/FF on the up. November 11, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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As reported on RTÉ the Sunday Times/Behaviour&Attitudes Poll has the following:

FG 34% +3

FF 31% +4

SF 14% -5

IND 8% -4

IND ALL 3% NC

LP 3% -1

SOL/PBP 3% +2

SD 1% NC

GP 2% NC

Margin of error +/- 3.3%

Concerning that the movements outside the MOE are all in favour of FG/FF and those within it are marginal at best.

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Comments»

1. Paddy Healy - November 11, 2017

The biggest news here is that after “don’t knows/wont vote” are eliminated Labour only gets 3%!!!!This means that of the C 1000 persons polled approximately 20 or 2% said they would vote Labour!!!(I will do core vote when it goes up on site)
This will be grist to the challenge of Alan Kelly to Howlin.
The damage done by Gilmore, Burton, Howlin, Kelly to Labour is huge and historic. Labour suffered after previous coalitions but never on this scale. Labour is now equal to Solidarity-PBP in the poll!!!. At most Solidarity-PBP is about 50% of the left. Left-wing TDs who are not in Solidarity-PBP include Seamaus Healy, Joan Collins, Clare Daly, Tommy Broughan, Catherine Connolly, Maureen O’Sullivan.
Excluding Sinn Féin from consideration, the Labour Party is in a minority on the left!! And thats not counting the 2 social democrats!!!Remember Thet the trade union which is by far the biggest, SIPTU, is affiliated to the Labour Party . General President Jack O’Connor is Chair of the Labour Party,

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2. Dermot O Connor - November 11, 2017

+7 to FGF, bloody hell.

-5 to SF (what is going on inside that party? Jesus lads, sort yourselves out. Rain. Soup. Put down the forks.)

Labour really are screwed, only 1 or 2 seats on that, indeed! If they’re lucky. Labour’s Mouldy oldies likely to retire at next GE (why would they put themselves through that ordeal again?) so their fiefdom seat bonus will evaporate. The Wexford goblin is probably safe, so 1 seat min? They’d better pray that there’s no GE near term.

On his previous analysis of the IT poll a few weeks back, AK gave FG 61 seats on 31%, so extrapolating, FF would be high 50s/low 60s, FG in the mid 60s (maybe low 70s?). FG won 76 seats on 36% in 2011, but then again, not as many Labour transfers exist now, har har. FG would only need ~10 TDs to form a gov.

Can’t help but think SF would be happy with that result – mid 20 seats, Labour finally dead as dirt, Mary Lou or Pearse FINALLY succeeding Gerry in the following Dail, etc., new FGF gov. wouldn’t be stable in face of future crisis, so a good chance of another election in the near term, etc.

Also expect Leo to run a very slick Trudeau-esque campaign, and make MM look stale.

*

The likelihood of an economic crisis in near term seems to be heating up; all bets are off if that hits before GE.

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2017/10/18/the-approaching-us-energy-economic-crisis/

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2017/11/08/will-china-bring-an-energy-debt-crisis/

Not to mention the powder keg that is Saudi Arabia, Brexit, etc., potential for chaos is very high. When home recently I was amazed by the lack of coverage of Saudi (Trump’s fish food got more coverage).

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3. CL - November 12, 2017

FG/FF-65%, Sinn Fein-14%.
Seismic!

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4. makedoanmend - November 13, 2017

Way I’m reading it is that the economic neo-liberal parties are on a solid 65% and with, what, another 5% of indos. So the neo-liberal project is back on track a mere 8 – 9 years after the latest crisis of capitalism in Ireland – and economic neo-liberal parties appear stronger than ever, such parties dominating nearly every major national economy in the world.

Happy days.

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WorldbyStorm - November 13, 2017

Unfortunately I think that’s the accurate reading makedoandmend. 😦

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CL - November 13, 2017

And yet neoliberalism is not monolithic; the EU version differs from that of the US.

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makedoanmend - November 13, 2017

Economic neo-liberalism may not be a monolithic practice but the results of the various strands, it can be argued, are basically the same – stagnant wages, housing crises, huge and increasing income disparity, tenuous job security…. its a matter of degree not underlying dynamics…and it seems the people just can’t enough of it

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Joe - November 13, 2017

The people have spoken – the f***ing ****holes.

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Alibaba - November 13, 2017

The Left has NOT spoken. It has missed all the opportunities. It is riddled with divisions and fixated with grasping every leg-up it can get, at the expense of building a united movement or party. The People have looked at it and said “No, thank you!”.

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Joe - November 13, 2017

Yep, pretty much.
I’m on here making sense all the time. But the People refuse to listen.

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O'Connor Lysaght - November 13, 2017

Perhaps we should disenfranchise the People and make Joe Ard Ri?

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Joe - November 13, 2017

Great idea. I’ll have Ádh Mór as my Min for Foreign Affairs. And I’ve a list of people from CLR who will be sent to revisionist re-education camp. People with double barrelled surnames will be under immediate suspicion – similar to bespectacled types under the Khmer Rouge.

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5. Paddy Healy - November 13, 2017

November B&A Poll Shows a Weakening of Sinn Féin and Total Disaster for Labour -Back to 2% Core Vote
AS I said in September-Sinn Féin and the Left are Doing Something Wrong! https://wp.me/pKzXa-jh
November B&A Core Vote (including Undecided)
Total FF FG Lab SF Others Undecided
Core% 23 25 2 12 12 27
October B&A
Total FF FG Lab SF Others Undecided
Core% 19 23 3 16 13 26
Oct 5, Ipsos/Mrbi
Total FF FG Lab SF Others Undecided
Core % 22 23 4 15 15 21
B&A Poll Sept B&A
Total FF FG Lab SF Others Undecided
Core% 18.25 26.0 3.0 15.2 13.4 24.3

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6. O'Connor Lysaght - November 13, 2017

Joking apart, Alibaba’s ‘open sesame’ will not work unless the left wants it to do so. The left must unite, agreed. But this ignores the real differences within it: Brexit, Irish unity, etc. These won’t be overcome easily. What is certain is that they won’t be overcome at all as long as many of their spokespersons persist in substituting for reasoned argument an allegedly marxist imitation of an Ephesian mob praising the goddess Diana. This runs all through the left. It is a byproduct of the fact that the various groups are trying to deal with serious issues which the right/centre right prefers to schmooze away. Nonetheless, there is a point where seriousness becomes sectarianism.

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Alibaba - November 13, 2017

I have to agree that it would be so easy if merely uttering the phrase “Open Sesame” opened the cave to the hidden treasures of unity. That’s effortless for keyboard warriors like me. Still, but still, it is necessary to bang on about it and take issue with the sectarian and frankly embarrassing antics of left. At the very least come together around what unites us, avoid duplication of efforts, share resources and make No to Coalition with the right wing a cutting edge.

I don’t expect any organisation to dissolve into a new entity. Of course, stay separate within and outside it, to deal with serious differences. But jeez, if I have to witness again the prospect of the left candidates in elections declining to give second peference votes to one another, I’ll be doomed to despair. Let there be electoral slates surely. Or as one disheartened supporter put it to me some years back “You people don’t know your arse from your elbow. I won’t vote for you again”.

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7. O'Connor Lysaght - November 13, 2017

Thanks for the warning, Joe.

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Joe - November 13, 2017

I was joking obvs. Jokes will still be permitted under my Árd Ríship. But ONLY MY JOKES AND YOU WILL HAVE TO LAUGH AT THEM.

Liked by 1 person

sonofstan - November 13, 2017

Joe En Lai?

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Joe - November 13, 2017

Joe Phun Ee.

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Alibaba - November 13, 2017

Ah Joe, no bother. Go on, go on with the galling jokes.

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8. Paddy Healy - November 13, 2017

Alibaba is basically correct when he says: The Left has NOT spoken. It has missed all the opportunities. It is riddled with divisions and fixated with grasping every leg-up it can get, at the expense of building a united movement or party. The People have looked at it and said “No, thank you!”.
Basically the Left and Sinn Féin have refused to replace the Water Charges Campaign wit a united mass movement of action against austerity and in particular the savage anti-human policies of government on health and housing.
I recently asked an ally: “I wonder if we could Persuade Solidarity and PBP to co-operate with us to build a mass protest march against homelessnes” He replied ; The only “march” Solidarity and PBP are interested in is stealing a march on each other and on everyone else in the recruiting stakes!!! It used to be said that there are 29 different varieties of Trotskyism world wide. Since the collapse of the stalinist HQ in the Soviet Union there are now believed to be 59 different kindsof Communist Party throughout the world. The left is in dreadful dissarray world wide, Bad and All as the situation in Ireland is, the situation in many other countries is much, much worse.
Let us look at Sinn Féin in the polls. As can be seen from the Core Votes posted above, Sinn Féin plodded along steadily over the last 3 months until it dropped more than the margin of error this month.Even if this month’s figure is an outlier, nothing cn hide the fact that Sinn Féin with it’s 23 TDs is stagnating, becalmed. Sinn Féin has 23 TDs and is capable of mounting a campaign of mass anti-government agitation ON ITS OWN. It is refusing to do so. It wants to slip in to the Labour Party Niche in Free State Politics-a minority crutch for the parties of the rich

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9. Paddy Healy - November 14, 2017

Let us look at Sinn Féin in the polls. As can be seen from the Core Votes posted above, Sinn Féin plodded along steadily over the last 3 months until it dropped more than the margin of error this month.Even if this month’s figure is an outlier, nothing can hide the fact that Sinn Féin with it’s 23 TDs is stagnating, becalmed. Sinn Féin has 23 TDs and is capable of mounting a campaign of mass anti-government agitation ON ITS OWN. It is refusing to do so. It wants to slip in to the Labour Party Niche in Free State Politics-a minority crutch for the parties of the rich
Basically the Left and Sinn Féin have refused to replace the Water Charges Campaign with a united mass movement of action against austerity and in particular the savage anti-human policies of government on health and housing.

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