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A disturbing poll projection… November 14, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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…from Adrian Kavanagh on foot of the latest poll from this weekend. It’s looking very very familiar, those figures m- very mid-2000s.

The Poll from ST/B&A had the following:

FG 34% +3

FF 31% +4

SF 14% -5

IND 8% -4

IND ALL 3% NC

LP 3% -1

SOL/PBP 3% +2

SD 1% NC

GP 2% NC

Margin of error +/- 3.3%

Kavanagh’s projection?

Fianna Fail 59, Fine Gael 67, Sinn Fein 19, Independents 9, Solidarity-People Before Profit 3, Green Party 1.

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1. smug2 - November 14, 2017

The Empire Strikes Back

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2. Paddy Healy - November 14, 2017

Why Do we not Have LP 0 seats? Labour has 7 seats in Dáil and should be listed.
There is a reluctance in media to highlight the Labour Disaster

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3. irishelectionliterature - November 14, 2017

Labour will more than likely hold on in Wexford, Cork East, Tipp North and Dublin Fingal.

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Paddy Healy - November 14, 2017

There is only one Co Tipp constituency and this was the case in the last General Election. In that election Alan Kelly came fifth and was elected without reaching the quota-just pipping Minister of State Tom Hayes(Fg) FG have no seat currently in Co Tipp. A strong North Tipp based FG candidate could take out Kelly.

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4. CL - November 14, 2017

So FF/FG are projected to have 80% of the seats in the Dail.
Seismic!

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5. An Sionnach Fionn - November 14, 2017

I can’t see a zero seat result for Labour even on the worse of days.

Any loss of seats by Sinn Féin would be a big hit at this stage in its development, in terms of its own psychology and public presentation. Normal parties expect the electoral cycle to reward and to punish but SF has been on a roll for the last decade. A few consistent polls like this and Adams might be going sooner rather than later.

Solidarity-People Before Profit’s rebranding efforts haven’t helped it in terms of voter recognition (the whole alliance should have adopted just one, easily digestible name). I might also suggest that it hasn’t built on its successes in the water charges campaign or received the recognition it deserved.

However if SF and S-PBP did kill off Labour in the next general election – at least temporarily – that would be something.

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CL - November 14, 2017

Whatever Sinn Fein’s strategy is, it doesn’t seem to be working. Its in the pathetic position of offering itself as the junior partner to FF or FG and being rejected by both.
And at the Westminster parliament proconsul Brokenshire introduces a budget for NI.

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WorldbyStorm - November 14, 2017

That’s an interesting point ASF re the rebranding of Solidarity. I always felt that was problematic. The AAA identity was to my mind a remarkably strong and coherent one. To change that was always a risk.

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Paddy Healy - November 14, 2017

That is correct. As I said on the STPoll thread: Let us look at Sinn Féin in the polls. As can be seen from the Core Votes posted on that thread, Sinn Féin plodded along steadily over the last 3 months until it dropped more than the margin of error this month.Even if this month’s figure is an outlier, and my belief is that it is, nothing can hide the fact that Sinn Féin with it’s 23 TDs is stagnating, becalmed. Sinn Féin has 23 TDs and is capable of mounting a campaign of mass anti-government agitation ON ITS OWN. It is refusing to do so. It wants to slip in to the Labour Party Niche in Free State Politics-a minority crutch for the parties of the rich
Basically the Left and Sinn Féin have refused to replace the Water Charges Campaign with a united mass movement of action against austerity and in particular the savage anti-human policies of government on health and housing.
The only Mass March they want is to Steal A March on each other in the recruitment/popularity stakes!!!

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6. CL - November 14, 2017

The ‘free market’ in operation

“A rise in homelessness is inevitable as house and rent prices continue to rise, according to the Director of the Nevin Economic Research Institute….
ESRI research says Irish houses are not overvalued ”
https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2017/1114/919841-esri_house_prices/

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7. GW - November 14, 2017

Deeply depressing that so many people have forgotten what Fx inflicted upon us during the last financial crisis and its aftermath.

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8. GW - November 14, 2017

I feel I should appologise every time I bring up Brexshit again but in the context of parliamentary control over the process one should not forget that the UK is a monarchy with often optional, somewhat democratic, add-ons.

As far as the United Kingdom goes, the right to shape treaties has always been power that resides with the crown, rather than with parliament. You can say that this is a fairly big glitch in the Matrix and one that ought to have been attended to before we voted to trigger Article 50, and you’d be right. But MPs voted through Article 50 without having done so, so we are where we are.

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Roger Irrelevant - November 14, 2017

Sorry wrong thread.

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Joe - November 14, 2017

🙂

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9. Ed - November 14, 2017

I just did a quick bit of maths on the polls since the last election and this is definitely FF-FG’s best patch since then. In the whole of 2016, their average combined score was 53.5%; the highest was 58, the lowest 49. In the first 12 polls this year (before Varadkar took over), the average was 53 (highest 58, lowest 50). Now since LV became Taoiseach, the average score has been 58; the highest the latest one, on 65, and two consecutive polls with at least 60% for the first time; the lowest result was 51, but that was in the first poll of this batch, and they haven’t gone below 56 since.

It’s not quite the return of the old order, but the best bit of news they’ve had in the last two years. So where do people reckon it’s coming from? Is the grand coalition starting to work for the two parties? Can they build on it, or will there be a few bumps on the road? What do people reckon?

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Joe - November 14, 2017

It’s a slight variation on the old order. In olden times FF pretty much always had at least a 5% lead on FG, quite often a fair bit more. So the crash of 2008 has had one effect – FF are now second fiddle to FG, just about. Whether that will actually be the case at the next general election is moot – FF did better than the polls suggested, the last time out.

On the overall swing back to the status quo – is it simply the case that ‘the economy’ is doing ok now? – near full employment (by their measures); workers public and private getting small wage increases; recruitment opening up again in the public sector; share values currently twice what they were at the trough of the recession (am I right?); basically, people have a few more bob to spend…
So they believe the mantra that we had to go through the pain to get the ‘gain’ we’re getting now.
Isn’t that how Irish politics has ever been?

All the above plus a pretty useless Left (and I fully include myself in that) equals the poll results we now see.

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WorldbyStorm - November 14, 2017

+1

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10. sonofstan - November 14, 2017

The depressing thing, in real world terms, like, is that, whereas, whatever it’s deeply problematic aspects, the Tiger years was perhaps one of the only times in Irish history where all boats rose, at least a little, the current ‘recovery’ will reinforce and exacerbate the structural inequalities that the state has been plagued with.

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