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Criminalising Refugees January 11, 2018

Posted by guestposter in Uncategorized.
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Post by Citizen of Nowhere

Arguably the leading German-speaking criminologist, Christian Pfeiffer, has written a study of the increase in crimes of violence investigated by police in Lower Saxony and comes to the conclusion that most of the 10% increase in the year 2015 over 2013 was attributed to new refugees seeking asylum in Germany.  (The report covers far more fascinating ground but it was the refugee aspect that grabbed the headlines – which says something about the German media.)

Of course this led the usual suspects to abuse this research for the usual reasons and in the usual manner.  A bit more on that later.

More interesting is Professor Pfeiffer’s analysis of the causes:

Firstly a huge proportion of violent crime is commited by young men between the ages of 15 and 25.  This pattern is apparently pretty much universal on this benighted planet.  Now it happens that the vast majority of the new cohort of asylum seekers are young and male and of this demographic.  So introducing a new group of young men in any place is likely to increase violent crime.

Secondly, and relatedly, Pfeiffer notes that these young men are unaccompanied for the most part by female relatives.  As he notes, mixed gender living conditions tend to have a moderating influence on younger men. (I guess if you exclude gender-based violence.)

And thirdly these statistics are based on suspected violent crime reported to the police and accepted by them as being worth investigating.  Now it is clear that due to simple prejudice darker-skinned young men who don’t have good German are more likely to get reported, and almost certainly more likely to have their alleged violent crimes taken up for investigation by the police.  Arguments between what are amusingly termed ‘bio-Germans’ are often sorted out or smoothed over before it gets to the stage of criminal investigation.

The research notes one other interesting fact.  Nearly all of the investigated crimes of violence among refugees were commited by North Africans rather than Syrians.  The difference is that people from Libya, Tunisia etc. are told in no uncertain terms that they have no chance of getting asylum, while those from Syria reasonable chances.  At the same time the North Africans either have no passports, or the country from which they fled is unwilling to cooperate in repatriating them.  The Syrian part of this cohort of young male refugees are remarkably absent from the statistics – they are careful not to get a black mark during their asylum process and have a prospect of remaining in the country in the long term.

In short, if you want to encourage criminality among this cohort of refugees, here’s what you do:

1) Make sure all the young men are crowded together.

2) Don’t let their families and female relatives join them.

3) Ensure that a good proportion of them have neither prospects of staying or of returning to the place from which they fled.

Strangely enough, that’s exactly what current refugee policy achieves in Germany, driven on, as it is, by the refusal of the political ‘centre’ to confront and contradict the racist and anti-immigrant right.

Against that you have to contrast the continuing heroic efforts of civil society and local authorities to integrate the refugees of the Syrian catastrophe.

Pfeiffer and his team recommend that North Africans be given real money to go back to where they fled from, not the paltry sums currently being dangled in front of people who have little prospects should they return.  Germany should give more aid to the countries from which they come to boost their economies.

However, these measures ignores the major cause of migration, especially in the middle east and north Africa – climate change.  The war in Syria and North Africa were precipited significantly by a run of years with bad harvests and water shortages, forcing internal migration, urbanisation and unrest.  The idea that a little aid is going to do much to ammeliarate these trends is, well, doubtful.

Of course, the CSU (Christian Social Union) party abused the report to move into AfD anti-immigration territory on the principle of ‘securing their right flank’, with all kinds of suggestions for making life harder for refugees

Result: no change in the CSU’s polling figures and an increase of about 40% in the AfD’s.  Clueless as well as amoral.

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