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A Second Referendum January 12, 2018

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.

Amused at this from Nigel Farage calling for a Second Brexit Referendum to “kill off the issue for a generation”

Would it pass again?


1. GW - January 12, 2018

The first poll indicating that Remain would now win by more than the margin of error came out recently. See Stephen Bush’s analysis of the chances here.

Any conversation about a second referendum has to start with a meaningful analysis of how you get 325 MPs to vote for it and how you get that vote in the first place. Brexit continues to have a number of powerful guarantors: Eurosceptics on the Conservative backbenches, Eurosceptics in the Labour leadership, pro-Remain Labour MPs in Leave-heavy seats who don’t want to go the way of all flesh, to name just a few. Not only do you have to overcome all of that, but you have to overcome it all multiple times in a new referendum bill.

I’d like to nominate Corbyn’s (and therefore presumably Milne’s) implication that exiting the single market is compatible with a ‘Jobs first’ Brexshit for Brexshit Bullshit Bingo statement of the week. With a score of 7 out of 10.


2. GW - January 12, 2018

However, as he notes further on, another general election before March 2019 could do the trick:

You can see how, if the next election results in a Labour government with no parliamentary majority, which feels like the most likely outcome at the moment, a referendum on re-entry might be the cost of doing business with the Liberal Democrats, the SNP or the Greens.

Best result, but unlikely.


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