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An issue bigger than politics but with Political Ramifications January 19, 2018

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.
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Rang a friend this morning to gauge his reaction to the Dail debate yesterday. He was utterly shocked at Martins speech. He is pro life and will never be voting FF or FG again. Feels that there are a lot like him too. Independents such as Mattie McGrath, Michael Collins and the Healy-Raes will walk in. This issue is bigger than any Political Party for him.
Due to Martins position, much of the public will see it as FF policy. There will quite a reception if FF do Church gate collections.
The dynamics in constituencies may change with members that backed certain candidates will switch to others. Interesting too to see what way Michael McGrath goes in this debate. Feels that FF and FG whilst not being hammered in rural Ireland, will do well to make any gains.
A vast swathe of the electorate will now see themselves as unrepresented by the traditional parties, almost like Brexit, Trump etc . Renua and a smatter of Independents to fill the vacuum .
“I’ve more admiration for Clare Daly and Ruth Coppinger today than I do for the rest of them. You might disagree with them but at least you know where they stand. “
I was shocked at his reaction and hadn’t expected it at all. He wouldn’t be out canvassing for The Pro Life Campaign or anything like that. Interesting to see if that feeling is widespread and if it has any electoral ramifications?

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1. dublinstreams - January 19, 2018

Was he voting for FF and FG? What way was/are his FF and FG TDs voting?

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irishelectionliterature - January 19, 2018

Yes he was. FF guy will be voting against Repeal but FG guy is down as undeclared (It’s Kerry) . I pointed this out but it doesn’t seem to matter.
As an aside I see that currently there are just two Dublin TD’s (Sean Haughey and Jack Chambers) against Repeal with a few undeclareds also.

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WorldbyStorm - January 19, 2018

Very interesting point, I was talking to someone today who’d have a good view of these things and their read was Martin knows there’s no percentage in FF seeming to be on the wrong side of this, particularly further down tfw line. Obviously the analysis is that sooner or later but likely sooner abortion provision is coming in and it’s accepted by a majority. It would be fascinating if there is space for a new party like that but can they seriously think they can roll it back once it is introduced?

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irishelectionliterature - January 19, 2018

Well there is already Renua. Yes there will be huge pressure to roll it back from certain quarters (and even despite Martins intervention I’m not sure it will pass).As I say I was shocked at the reaction.

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2. 6to5against - January 19, 2018

MM is playing the long game, as WbS says.

FF are over-reliant on the elderly/rural/socially conservative voter. This is a defining issue for many but that demographic is (literally) dying out. He wants to show that FF can be modern and liberal.

That he has stepped up before Leo does so is a big bonus. At this stage, Leo is going to look like a follower – not the brave dynamic sort that MM is being presented as.

I really can’t see this as coming from anything other than such partisan, game-playing positions. If Martin actually believes the 8th should go – and I think he does – than where has he been on this for the last 35 years? There was no new information last month that wasn’t available to anybody literate for years. All that changed was political expedience.

I don’t blame Martin for his speech yesterday. But I am aghast at the hypocrisy it reveals for his entire time in political office.

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irishelectionliterature - January 19, 2018

It’s clear that the Citizens Assembly and Dail Committee has caused minds to change. I also think the availability of Abortion pills has surprised many. They also mean that Abortion is actually happening in Ireland, not just exported.

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dublinstreams - January 19, 2018

Can Leo state a personal view or does he not have to state the governments view?

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Tomboktu - January 19, 2018

Will we see a repetition of Cosgrave and his government’s attempt legislate for the Supreme Court ruling in the McGee case?

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3. Bartholomew - January 19, 2018

If his constituency is Kerry, note that FF Senator Ned O’Sullivan, from Listowel, who was on the Dail committee, voted for repeal. I think he voted for 12-week unrestricted as well, but I’m not 100% sure of that.

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irishelectionliterature - January 19, 2018

He did, that said I gather he won’t be running again for the Seanad.

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4. Tomboktu - January 19, 2018

Phryne Fisher over on Broadsheet

One of the most cynical aspects of the play has been for the leader to claim that he is speaking in a personal capacity.

This is unfathomable in a party that adhere’s strongly to the power of the grassroots and the assertion of that power through decisions of the Árd Fheis.

Martin is playing the long game with a pro-life agenda and you can guarantee that the party faithful’s concerns are being assuaged in constituency clinics the country over this morning. ‘Trust Micheál, he knows what he’s doing…’

Full article here: http://www.broadsheet.ie/2018/01/19/martins-gambit-steal-repeal/

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dublinstreams - January 19, 2018

TDs will ultimately decide our legislation shocker.

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5. irishelectionliterature - January 19, 2018

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2018/0119/934439-eighth-amendment/

Bobby Aylward trying to form some form of FF group against the Amendment….

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6. Gerryboy - January 19, 2018

Note that it is constituency voters and longterm grassroots party supporters that FF (and FG) deputies are wary of. The expressed opinions of Bishops are not relevant. Expect some rank and file kerfuffle in FG too in the coming months. BTW I doubt whether any new small c conservative party will be formed after the referendum votes have been counted. My own hope is that within the next decade another couple of hung Dails will force FF and FG into a formal coalition. A healthy parliamentary democratic culture requires one mainstream conservative party and one mainstream social democratic party. Our multiseat constituency system based on PR meanwhile will continue to produce hung Dails with colourful backbenchers, small urban leftist groups and Sinn Fein.

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Pasionario - January 19, 2018

I wonder how much of this is for show. FF and FG backbenchers get to jump up and down about being “pro-life”. Then the referendum passes, and we can finally move on. The backbenchers shrug and say we did out best, the people have spoken, blah blah, let’s focus on the “real” issues like that pothole outside your front gate etc.

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Gerryboy - January 19, 2018

I concede that downhome pothole-and-street-lamp backbenchers may not be sincere pro-lifers, but they think enough of the constituency voters are. Yes, it will be porkbarrel politics as usual whatever way the referendum goes. This goes to support my perception that a great bulk of FF-FG voters don’t see society and its issues in terms of Left and Right. They just see pork for their county and region, and elected deputies are the shouting messenger boys to get them some pork. Isn’t it a daft political culture we have?

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Pasionario - January 19, 2018

I would say they are reflexively sincere in their opposition, since the Church has been shouting at them about it their entire lives. At the same time, they’d probably prefer to forget about the whole thing.

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Starkadder - January 22, 2018

If the anti-abortion crowd were logical, they’d demand all the Irish women suspected of having abortions be arrested, tried and imprisoned for life if found guilty of abortion.

Because they keep calling abortion murder, so that is how they should treat people who have abortions.

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7. CL - January 22, 2018

“There is mounting evidence that it is not abortion, but the lack of access to abortion that is a deadly threat to women….
The anti-choice movement refuses to take responsibility for rising maternal mortality….
the time has come to raise the charge that the “pro-life” movement is, in effect, pro-death.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jan/22/abortion-lets-call-the-pro-lifers-what-they-are-pro-death

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