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Yep, another poll January 27, 2018

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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This one from RedC/SBP.

FG 32% +5

FF 26% NC

SF 15% -1

IND 9% -1

IND ALL 3% -1

LP 6% NC

SOL/PBP 3% NC

SD 2% -1

GP 4% NC

It would be difficult to argue against the proposition that there is a home for pretty much every left-inclined voter at present, for better and for worse. That GP rating is intriguing to me. Somehow they’ve leap-frogged away from the disaster of the late 2000s and regained a fair chunk of their support. And the SDs, on the week of their Annual Conference they’d presumably have been hoping for better. Perhaps the AC will assist in bringing them more to the fore.

No sign of a McDonald surge, yet, for SF. And still FG sails on ahead. Just on that isn’t it remarkable how Enda Kenny turned that ship around. Granted it also took the fracture of the political system (or FF, which some might suggest amounts to the same thing) but somehow, somehow, FG is now the largest formation in the state and in this and other polls well ahead. FG should be lauding the last leader to the stars. All the while wondering how long the present leader’s popularity at large will persist. It will be interesting to see how his getting down off the fence on abortion provision works, he’s certainly been taking it slowly.

Anyhow, as RTÉ notes:

Support for Fine Gael in this poll is consistent with similar findings in an Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll earlier in the week and last weekend’s Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes poll.

Comments»

1. irishelectionliterature - January 27, 2018

A lot of what we’ve seen of Varadkar recently has been on the International stage. I know there was often an element of cringe when we saw Enda in similar positions, where Varadkar projects something altogether different….a more modern Ireland or something along those lines.

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WorldbyStorm - January 27, 2018

Yeah, and in a way Kenny was irretrievably locked into the context of the 2011-16 period etc, etc. Whereas Varadkar seems to have dodged that bullet. It’s all perception but clearly it is working with some of the public. Mind you, for all the talk of LV being a new Bertie A FG’s not getting the polling figures. And then there’s the referendum campaign. Wonder how that will work for him.

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2. Paddy Healy - January 28, 2018

Red C will argue that its practice of filtering out those least l,ikely to vote EVEN fROM ITS CORE VOTE gives a more reliable forecast of election outcomes. However this means that the REd C “Core Vote” cannot be simply compared to the B&A core vote which is a totally unprocessed poll outcome.. Moreover Irish Times/IPSOS MBRI has not produced any core vote for its recent poll.
It is helpful tha B&A is producing monthly polls in addition to providing full unprocessed details of each poll. The monthly “tracking” poll is particularly helpful when assessing polling outcomes for smaller samples which have a larger margin of error than the overall outcome.

Irish Opinion Poll Analysis https://wp.me/pKzXa-jh

For example the sample size for the poorer half (C2DE) of population is typically c. 450 as opposed to 900+ for the full sample.

The MoE for the C2DE sample is c. 5% as opposed to c.3% for overall outcome
In the January B&A Poll among poorer half of population(C2DE) Labour Has 3%—Sinn Féin has 18%

Technically this could include Labour 8% Sinn Féin 13%

But in the December B&A Poll among poorer half of population(C2DE) Labour Has 4%—Sinn Féin has 21%  (Lab has 4% in wealthier half also!)

It is therefore less likely that Labour 8% Sinn Féin 13% is the actual situation inJanuary

The February B&A poll will help clarify the situation among C2DEs further

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3. Dermot O Connor - January 29, 2018

In case not posted yet, AK:

https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2018/01/26/the-january-polls-and-the-impact-of-the-constituency-commission-2017-report-changes-constituency-level-analysis-of-the-irish-times-ipsos-mrbi-24th-january-2018-and-sunday-times-behaviour-att/

There is no figure for Labour in the 25th estimate, because that number is ZERO.

The 25th January 2018 Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI opinion poll

Fianna Fáil 25% (No Change)
Fine Gael 34% (down 2%)
Sinn Fein 19% (NC)
Independents and Others 18% (up 2%)
incl Solidarity-People Before Profit 2%
Social Democrats 1%
Green Party 3%
Independents 12%
Labour Party 4% (NC)

My constituency-level analysis:

Fianna Fail 47
Fine Gael 70
Sinn Fein 30
Green Party 1
Independents 12

*

The 21st January 2018 Sunday Times-B & A opinion poll:

Fianna Fáil 26% (No Change)
Fine Gael 32% (down 2%)
Sinn Fein 18% (up 1%)
Independents and Others 18% (NC)
including Solidarity-People Before Profit 2%
Social Democrats 1%
Green Party 2%,
Independents 13%
Labour Party 6% (up 1%)

My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures:

Fianna Fail 49
Fine Gael 65
Sinn Fein 29
Labour Party 3
Independents 14

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Dermot O Connor - January 29, 2018

EST for 25th puts FF/SF @ 77 (perilously close to outright maj if they coalesce, but will they?) FG @ 70 would need 10 indies & mini parties. Doable, but tight.

EST for 21st puts FF/SF @ 78 (again, very close to viable coalition, etc), with FG needing a re-run of supply/con to get a 3rd term.

If SF are pliable (haha), it would put MM in a very tight spot. Be Taoiseach (but with SF as partners, and eat crow), or be the first FF leader never to be Taoiseach.

SF would have him over a barrel…and that looks like his best case scenario.

Still, wouldn’t be the first time a FF leader did the unthinkable. In the National Interest, of course, going forward.

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Alibaba - January 29, 2018

If Fianna Fáil doesn’t win the next general election, whether it succeeds in coalesing with Sinn Féin or not, Martin is a gonner for sure.

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