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Poll projections January 29, 2018

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Enormously depressing reading these poll projections from Adrian Kavanagh. As always he couches them in caveats – poll projections cannot and do not account for every eventuality, but they do point to broader trends in terms of seat numbers. And although he hasn’t, at the time of writing this, factored in the SBP/RedC poll from the weekend, those broad trends suggest no favours to the left parties (bar SF who would see seat gains).

The key projections are:

The 25th January 2018 Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI opinion poll estimates party support levels as follows: Fianna Fáil 25% (No Change relative to the previous Ipsos MRBI opinion poll), Fine Gael 34% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 19% (NC), Independents and Others 18% (up 2%) – including Solidarity-People Before Profit 2%, Social Democrats 1%, Green Party 3%, Independents 12% – Labour Party 4% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 47, Fine Gael 70, Sinn Fein 30, Green Party 1, Independents 12. (Fianna Fail 47, Fine Gael 69, Sinn Fein 29, Green Party 1, Independents 12 for the old 158-Dáil seats constituency arrangement.)

And:

The 21st January 2018 Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll estimates party support levels as follows: Fianna Fáil 26% (No Change relative to the previous Ipsos MRBI opinion poll), Fine Gael 32% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 18% (up 1%), Independents and Others 18% (NC) – including Solidarity-People Before Profit 2%, Social Democrats 1%, Green Party 2%, Independents 13% – Labour Party 6% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 49, Fine Gael 65, Sinn Fein 29, Labour Party 3, Independents 14. (Fianna Fail 47, Fine Gael 66, Sinn Fein 28, Labour Party 3, Independents 14 for the old 158-Dáil seats constituency arrangement.)

Putting aside the individual projections what is most evident is how contingent all this is, that even very minor ticks upwards or downwards in the support of a party can result in quite markedly different outcomes. For example, the LP, were it to get 6-7% would come back with a significantly greater body of TDs than 5 or lower. And the same holds true of SOL/PBP, or the GP or the SDs or indeed the more amorphous independents, of whatever stripe.

I’ve noted before – the basic thrust of the polls at the moment are not good at all for the left. Perhaps I’m being pessimistic, I can’t help but wonder whether there’s any real prospect of them getting better this side of an election.

Dermot O’Connor in comments points to the intriguing possibilities as regards government formation.

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1. Joe - January 29, 2018

I know this is about another country but I thought it was interesting. Apparently Jez’s ‘Youthquake’ (the increase in numbers of young people voting at the last UK GE) didn’t actually happen.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/youth-vote-election-2017-jeremy-corbyn-no-change-18-25-labour-momentum-upset-theresa-may-a8183461.html

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WorldbyStorm - January 29, 2018

It is interesting. What do you make of it Joe?

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Dermot O Connor - January 29, 2018

No youthquake may even be better – as the young feckers are well, more likely to be feckless. Surely more impressive to win the support of jaded older voters. I’d hate the next election to rest on the ‘mere enthusiasm’ of the high teens/early 20s…who might or might not be arsed to come out to the booths.

Latest poll on UKPR shows Lab 42 Tories 39, btw.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9969

In any case, from the into article: “The study found that Labour increased its vote among every age group except the over-70s.”

Excellent – hope those over 70s tories have VERY good health care (private, one assumes?), because that’s not a growing cohort; dovetails with AVPS about the long term decline of the tory party (which would be a busted flush were it not being propped up by the media and business).

http://averypublicsociologist.blogspot.co.uk/2018/01/the-last-days-of-conservative-party.html

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2. Joe - January 29, 2018

Dunno what to make of it tbh. Maybe some others on here who are more expert in polls and election analysis might comment?
The study says the increase in turnout was in the 30-40 year age group. Thems still yoofs to me!
I like this bit though: “In part it is because political commentary is prone to believing that what politicians set out to do is effective, even if there is no concrete evidence that it is.” I think that’s true. We all, including,or maybe especially, political commentators, love to be wise after the event.

I sometimes tend towards the strapline of a chap I used to collogue with on the late, lamented Dangerhere football blog. His ‘motto’ was “Everything you know is wrong.”

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benmadigan - January 29, 2018

if the news about less “yoof” support for Corbyn is true, then the Conservative party should be afraid, very afraid. Corbyn’s support must then have come from “older” voters the Tories were expecting/hoping to woo!

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Joe - January 29, 2018

And another take on the same research: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/29/youthquake-why-age-did-matter-for-corbyn-in-2017.

You pays your money…

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WorldbyStorm - January 30, 2018

Does that piece argue that those already voting shifted to the LP or that new young voters who hadn’t voted before shifted to the LP. I’m sure it’s the time of night but I can’t quite work out the fundamental argument.

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Joe - January 30, 2018

Don’t worry about it.
Everything they know is wrong.

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3. Dermot O Connor - January 29, 2018

Bear in mind that I expect another financial crisis (debt bubble or some equivalent contagion) to hit, prob. not in 2018, but 2019 starts looking iffy…(see video links below for interviews with Chris Martenson and Nomi Prins for more).

So…

…assuming that the next Dail is not another supply/demand put up, AND that numbers similar to these are returned, AND that FF/SF form a goverment:

FF/SF would coalesce with FF having its smallest number of seats as a gov. party ever (presumably in the 40s to mid 50s). SF would be a very large ‘junior’ partner, high 20s to 30s, and not exactly a pushover like Greens or Labour. As we’ve seen, they’re not scared of walking out of a government that they don’t like. Cash for Ash? Weee’re gohn. They won’t be Gormley’d. First scandal, how likely would SF stick around? Not long, I think.

For FF, a very dangerous position to be in; should that govt not work out, should the economy take a turn, FF would go into the subsequent election defending a meager 40 to 50 seats, and could easily head back to below 40, 30, 20, take your pick. They would have to be lucky, and I don’t get a lucky feeling from them any more.

FG, in contrast, would be in opposition in the strongest position in their history – largest single party, not with their usual 50-ish, but in the mid to high 60s, maybe even low 70s. Garret had 63 in the 82 interregnum opposition, but he was facing a MUCH stronger FF.

Varadkar’s FG would be in opp as the biggest single party, 35% or thereabouts, with FF locked into a thorny coalition with SF. FG would also be led by a former Taoiseach, wouldn’t have to deal with the “can you see him as a Taoiseach” stuff that bedeviled Kenny when in opp., etc.

FG would be looking at outright maj. territory in the election past that one. And the wait might be a lot shorter than 5 years.

All this is contingent on which grouping is in power when the next economic shit sandwich is served, of course. Whether it hits in this dail or the next; if it hits at all (but I think it must, sooner or later).

SF going in with FF would free up breathing room for the lefties and pseudo lefties in opposition. Speaking of pseuds, Labour must be praying to see SF go in with FF. It can’t come too soon for them. But they may be down to 1 seat next time, as you say, or they might be pushing 10 on a very good day.

Regarding why I think another 2008 (on steroids) is coming, see the videos. Try not to be put off by the LOUD Captain America interviewer. Chris Martenson is a sane voice.

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WorldbyStorm - January 29, 2018

Brexit alone is likely to cause some economic impacts unless we are all very lucky so even a mild downturn globally +Brexit is bad news. In which case we may well see what you suggest.

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CL - January 30, 2018

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Dermot O Connor - January 30, 2018

The NYT reporing on forecasters getting it wrong: it’s their job to give column inches to the likes of Tom Friedman (domesticated chatterers who serve business as usual).

It’ll be a cold day in hell before the likes of Chris Martenson get column inches in that neo-liberal rag.

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FergusD - January 30, 2018

Malcolm Roberts is my fave economist
https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com

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4. Fergal - January 29, 2018

Talking to people recently about the upcoming abortion referendum- all of them said that the youth will turn out in huge numbers and they all referenced the ‘huge’ numbers of young people who got on a plane/boat to vote for marriage equality..similar to Jeeza- but how many people were involved? Anybody know? They were convinced it was tens of thousands- I ‘m not- was it?

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WorldbyStorm - January 30, 2018

It’s kind of key to find out, if only to be certain where to position resources, etc.

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irishelectionliterature - January 30, 2018

I think that they will, certainly registration drives were very successful in third level colleges. My son who will vote for the first time in the Referendum is quite vocal on the issue and has a number of friends involved in various Repeal groups.
On a personal level the crowds at Dail protests and ARC Marches contain a quite different group to a lot of the usual demos.

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WorldbyStorm - January 31, 2018

+1 IEL re Arc etc…

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5. GW - January 30, 2018

Nothing changes much in Irish electoral politics.

Meanwhile Br*t has come out of holiday/fantasy mode and getting real again.

Including for the BLP. See the relevant polls about the disjuncture between the party leadership’s policy and the memberships and the the movement of Labour voters (remain & leave).

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