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Winter has come! – redux February 27, 2018

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Okay, a slightly different winter from Citizen of Nowhere’s post earlier today/yesterday evening, but the pre-warnings in regard to weather events is something relatively new. And welcome, even if some in business seem a bit testy about the temerity of the state in doing so. Some shops ran out of certain foodstuffs last night, and two thoughts on that, firstly that it’s not stupid of people to stock up on a little extra if workplaces do close, secondly that supply chains seem a little more fragile than I’d expect. Anyhow, could be an interesting week weatherwise.

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1. An Sionnach Fionn - February 27, 2018

If the supply chains are that susceptible to bad weather, you have to wonder what the effect would be if the UK were to crash out of the EU next year with zero trade and customs agreements. Highly unlikely, I know, with a massive fudge the most likely outcome, favouring either London or Brussels, But still, if some transitional soft exit could not be agreed…

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GW - February 27, 2018

Highly unlikely? I’ve seen nothing to change my opinion that the chance of a crash-out is at least 30%. And possibly rising.

More capacity around the island of Britain by ship and by air would be good contingency planning.

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An Sionnach Fionn - February 27, 2018

On the contingency thing, I think that is going to be required whatever happens. Certainly we should be looking at major investments in our seaports and upgrading direct sea routes to the Continental road/rail networks.

There is of course bilateral agreements and old agreements that will come into effect, and some outside the EU remit, but it is still going to be a bit of a nightmare if the worse case scenario occurs.

But is that really likely? I’m pessimistic myself but I can’t see the UK throwing itself off a cliff and leaving its nearest EU neighbours, Ireland, France, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany dangling. The reaction would be terrible.

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WorldbyStorm - February 27, 2018

It would skewer their ability to make deals, they’d be regarded as undependable by new or old markets. I guess that’s not a reason enough that it won’t happen and there is a sort of madness abroad in the Tory party in particular, but still.

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GW - February 28, 2018

I understand your scepticism and ATM I don’t think a no-deal outcome is more probable than some kind of deal and a longish transition period. But I would argue the drift of probabilities is going in that direction.

The majority of the ruling class in the UK has a real political problem in not having a government and supporting civil service capacity that is up to making a deal.

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6to5against - February 28, 2018

It has to be unlikely still that the UK govt would do anything quite so self-destructive, but the debate is so debased, and the internal Tory/DUP politics such a mess that it seems increasingly plausible that there will be a no-deal crash-out.
Having unleashed so many rhetorical dogs of war, I’m not sure they’ll be able to get them al tied up again when the time comes.

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2. GW - February 28, 2018

I note that the British media are calling a bit of snow ‘the Beast from the East’.

White (Russian) Peril anyone?

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