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After the UK local elections… and some projections… May 14, 2018

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Thought this interesting, from Politics.co.uk and an assessment of the local elections last week which notes:

Despite this morning’s Tory swagger, they are precariously placed – if these results were applied at parliamentary level, the Conservatives would lose their ability to govern with the DUP, their only viable Brexit allies. The party is a long way from landing the secure majority that has eluded them for the last 25 years.
Labour look similarly adrift. They are well capable of taking enough seats to govern in an unstable alliance, but were they to gain every target seat up to Nuneaton, they would barely have more seats than John Major secured in 1992 – the precursor to five years of chaos. Last night Labour lost votes and seats to the Tories in Nuneaton. They even shed seats to the Tories in Pudsey. Nuneaton is 81 on Labour’s target list; Pudsey is number six.
In other words – and without making predictions – we seem to be a long way from any kind of stable government in Britain. No national consensus exists. England in particular looks more politically divided than ever.

And for some projections… though this one seems to give the Tories a bit more support than I’d have expected.

Which suggests the Tories short of a majority by 18 seats at an election on current polling figures. The DUP wouldn’t make up numbers in that one!

And you can do your own projections.

Comments»

1. EWI - May 14, 2018

There was a concerted campaign by Tories, DUP and the Blairites to try and sabotage Labour’s gains in the recent elections. This is the actual reality, surely, and not projections of DOOM by ‘centrist dads’?

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WorldbyStorm - May 14, 2018

Ah, I wouldn’t see it as ‘doom’ at all. That was a fair analysis I thought. Labour certainly didn’t manage expectations as well as they could and while they had a reasonably good result it wasn’t stunning. In any event – why wouldn’t the Tories, DUP etc be doing precisely that? It’s their job. It’s LAbour’s job to ensure that any such efforts are repelled successfully and convincingly.

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EWI - May 14, 2018

why wouldn’t the Tories, DUP etc be doing precisely that? It’s their job.

Certainly theirs – but what the Blairites, though? How on earth are the likes of Mandelson not gone?

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WorldbyStorm - May 14, 2018

It’s a big party with many power bases. The membership isn’t of one mind either. Saying people should be out raises the question, for what? Disagreeing with the leadership? I’m not sure it quite works that way. And difficult to pin say ideological disagreement on it too (after all the flip side of that is that Corbyn should have been out during the Blair years, but he wasn’t and rightly so). Similarly with policy. I’ve no time for the Blairites, or neo-Blairites, but it’s not entirely cut and dried. For example a good number of that crew in northern English seats have taken harder Brexit positions on immigration etc seeing their seats potentially at risk (though perhaps as UKIP wanes that will change).

In any event were the Blairites doing that as such (bar the occasional publicity seeking one of that crew)? It was a steady, respectable result, over hyped by the leadership in the run up in a slightly cack-handed way which left an opening. But I don’t think there’s any serious push back now inside the BLP against Corbyn as leader, and it’s notable how the chatter about splits or leadership heaves has gone. And long may that continue.

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EWI - May 14, 2018

Saying people should be out raises the question, for what? Disagreeing with the leadership? I’m not sure it quite works that way.

WbS, there’s no political party on the face of the earth that would tolerate ‘members’ who publicly advocate against voting for the party, as the Blairites have done. None.

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WorldbyStorm - May 14, 2018

I’m not so sure about that. Take our own fair isle and consider the likes of Alan Kelly who certainly is like some who have come close to that or similar stuff. I’ve met a raft of former FF TDs and Senators who went indo who during their time in that party were clearly stirring up stuff, and one or two who returned to the fold. Corbin himself voted against his own party an heroic number of times which while perhaps not identical isn’t a million miles away. Perhaps I’m being too simplistic but I think this is largely a self resolving problem and given the tightness of the balance it would be unwise to suddenly jettison even the four or five who are particularly egregious – nothing succeeds like success and if there’s a BLP govt next time around they’ll mostly fall into line or be irrelevant. The other thing is is that those who are most egregious are so obviously marginal and marginalized I am dubious they have much effect – frankly I think unforced errors are a bigger problem. And as the OP noted they’re not a huge problem but something to watch.

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EWI - May 15, 2018

Take our own fair isle and consider the likes of Alan Kelly who certainly is like some who have come close to that or similar stuff.

I do not ever recall Alan Kelly taking part in an organised public campaign of villification against his own party, in cahoots with the political enemies of said party. I don’t know how much tolerance for that sort of thing there was in the WP/DL, but it’s *not* normal.

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WorldbyStorm - May 15, 2018

I think I misread you earlier so quick question, can you point to one BLP MP -bar the idiot in Scotland who called for tactical voting against the SNP with the Tories there – who called publicly for a vote for the Tories or LDs or against the LP during the last election? Because I think you are confusing counterproductive rhetoric against Corbyn as leader with outright anti-LP calls of which I have found none. The closest I found bar the Scottish MP was Blair talking about voters supporting Remain candidates from all three parties though also saying he supported the BLP. But actual BLP MPs, I can’t see it. And as evidenced by last nights BLP meeting there are Blairites on both sides of the Brexit issue with the noxious Mann calling for no EEA option because of the need to ‘control’ immigration.

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2. GW - May 14, 2018

I would be very cautious about any predictions in the UK re the next 9 months. The Brexit can has toppled over the cliff at the end of the road and can be heard faintly bouncing on the rocks below.

The question remains whether British Labour is sufficiently astute and flexible to take advantage of the Brexit crisis. I honestly can’t tell, at this stage.

Major possibilities exist that could lead to defeats in the House of Commons for the Tories/DUP. But the May government could still just hang on, paralysed. As I understand it there is no compulsion of a UK government to go when they loose major policy votes any more.

Which would lead to a crash-out Brexit.

Milliband’s comments about Labour risking being the midwife of a hard Brexit are fair, IMO.

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WorldbyStorm - May 14, 2018

That makes a lot of sense GW. The jury is definitely out at this stage…

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internationalfrontdisco - May 14, 2018

“The Brexit can has toppled over the cliff at the end of the road and can be heard faintly bouncing on the rocks below.“
Ha. Nice one.

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3. Joe - May 14, 2018

Is it time for someone on here to take a good hard critical look at Jez? The latest story I read was him calling for the contract for the building of British warships be given to British shipyards and not tendered on the international markets. Echoing Thatcher? And calling to mind Costello.

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WorldbyStorm - May 14, 2018

I wonder is that Paul Mason’s influence, he’s very big on the Bevan nuclear deterrent…

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