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That Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI Poll… change or continuity. Well, more continuity than some are making out… May 17, 2018

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

Joe mentions the latest poll as a sign for hope here.

And on that been reading a lot of commentary on the latest poll, but one oddity is that in all that while a lot is made of the idea that the vote is shifting towards NO and momentum with it, few bother to look at the most recent poll before it, the Milward Brown/Sunday Independent poll from 18-30th of April which had:

Yes 45%, No 34% and U/DK at 18%.

Compare and contrast with the IT:

Yes 44%, No 32% and U/DK at 17%.

And the lead is actually 1% greater in the most recent poll.

They’re near identical – despite being weeks apart. And yet the narrative is one of change. Sure, they’re from different polling companies, but they’re not that different.

Look even further back to the Sunday Times and IT polls in mid-April and again we see them occupying similar territory, with Yes slightly higher (two or three percentage points), No somewhat lower (again three or four percentage points) and U/DK’s somewhat higher (again three or four percentage points). Look back into March and one could make a case that across two months Yes has ‘lost’ perhaps five percent and No has gained three to five percent.
In other words movement has been quite slow.

It could all speed up radically in the next seven days. It most likely will narrow yet again, and yet, looking at these figures… much more continuity than change.

Of course one aspect to this is the manner in which everything is treated in the media in isolation. I was hugely entertained listening to the Irish Times podcast on the poll to hear the host say that this week only two major things had happened in the campaign, those being the debate on television and the other the IT poll! Well, given we’re about to see at least one or two more polls at the weekend that’s clearly time limited, but I wonder if that’s accurate at all. Work on the ground I suspect is where it is at. We’ll see soon enough.


1. Mick 2 - May 17, 2018

Typical of the Irish Times. Everyone knows the real action is taking place away from the mainstream media spotlight. Everyone will remember a 20-man meitheal erecting a bockedy NO up the side of Ben Bulben and John Waters calling Eamon Dunphy a fucking bollocks apropos of nothing as the real game changers of the campaign.


WorldbyStorm - May 17, 2018

Dunphys plaintive cry of “I’m a NO voter too!” will remain with me for a while but you’re right. The other thing is these pr stunts cancel themselves out.


2. Paddy Healy - May 18, 2018

Irish Times: The net dissatisfaction rate – the difference between those who are satisfied and those who are dissatisfied with the Government – among women is now 29 points, up from just 10 points last month.
While it is not unusual for a government to have a net dissatisfaction rating, this is an extremely large and rare move in one month and coincides with the cervical screening


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