No election round here anytime soon…

Fiach Kelly in the IT articulates something that I’ve felt for some time now, certainly for twelve months or so, that away from the recurrent rhetoric in the media about an election, and the self-serving chatter from some politicians and aspirant politicians, the reality is rather different:

The political class, so accustomed to being on edge over the prospect of a general election, appears to have have missed some signs this week that should relieve its perpetual anxiety.
The odds on an extension to the confidence-and-supply deal which underpins the Fine Gael-led minority government have now significantly shortened, although little attention has been paid to this development.

Kelly argues that the Summer Economic Statement and its rather dry tone points to anything but a pre-election giveaway budget. And he suggests that FF is keen to ‘deny’ FG any excuse for an election. But then perhaps FG is none too keen on one either.

In recent days, one seasoned Fine Gael political operator confidently predicted the general election would not be until October 2019 at the earliest.
Until recently, such a suggestion would have been met with extreme sarcasm by most in Leinster House. After the past week, it does not seem far-fetched at all.

And why would they be? Kelly points to Varadkar’s poll ratings as being good, and the recent referendum victory, but… but… FG’s ratings have not substantially improved to the point where it would be a safe bet, or even a good bet, or a fair one, on an election. Though some of that is more about the shape of the post-election landscape. It is implausible that FG will not, at this point, be the winner in terms of most TDs. But cobbling together another coalition and supply and confidence agreement – well, why not stick with the one that is already there? At least for a while yet.