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That latest poll on Brexit in Northern Ireland… September 4, 2018

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

You’ll get full details here (link) – including some information on demographics and age, but this is far from uninteresting:

The independent poll of 1,199 people was commissioned by the campaign group Our Future Our Choice Northern Ireland (OFOCNI), which is calling for a People’s Vote on the Government’s final Brexit deal.


Over half (52%) said they would vote for a united Ireland after Brexit, with 39% wishing to stay part of the UK.
In the event of Brexit with a hard border, 56% favoured a united Ireland, with 40% choosing to stay in the UK.
Should the UK somehow remain in the EU, the poll found that more than half (52%) would want to stay in the UK, with just 35% supporting a united Ireland.


Only around three quarters (73%) of those from a nationalist background said they would support a united Ireland if Brexit was avoided – compared to 94% wanting to leave the UK after Brexit.
Some 59% of those who didn’t consider themselves unionist or nationalist supported a united Ireland after Brexit, but this dropped to 23% if Brexit was avoided.

Not a lot of love for the DUP’s handling of the issue either with close to 70% of respondents thinking the party was representing people ‘very badly’ in respect of Brexit.


1. CL - September 4, 2018

So if Brexit happens the MP for Staffordshire Moorlands, the NI proconsul Karen Bradley, will have to agree with Sinn Fein’s demand for a border poll?


WorldbyStorm - September 4, 2018

Well… a few more polls like the above and she might well have to.


An Sionnach Fionn - September 4, 2018

I suspect that the SF vote passing the DUP vote, or the combined nationalist vote out-polling the unionist one, is the UK litmus test for calling a referendum.

Unless Brexit forces its hand.


GW - September 4, 2018

I’d imagine the presence of the DUP in government will prevent any whisper of a vote.

Liked by 1 person

2. GW - September 4, 2018

That’s predictable.

However, more imediately, will Sinn Fein back the calls for a People’s Vote in Belfast City Council?

Answers on a postcard please. 🙂


EWI - September 4, 2018

However, more imediately, will Sinn Fein back the calls for a People’s Vote in Belfast City Council?

I don’t see why they wouldn’t – it’s unlikely to affect the chances one way or another, and good PR for ‘we told you so’. Unless it brings a danger of becoming a cudgel in the hands of its enemies over abstentionism.


GW - September 4, 2018

OK – some of those campaigning for it in Belfast say SF won’t.

And the reasons are clear if you remain at a purely cynical – and I would argue, short-termist – level. If a united Ireland BAMN is your over-riding goal then a hard Brexit is clearly a stepping stone, on the basis of polls like the one above.

If one accepts this tactical argument (and IMO neither the tactics nor the strategy is valid), why should SF push for a People’s Vote, that might reverse Brexit?


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