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That weekend poll… November 27, 2018

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Here’s a point of comparison… the latest RedC/SBP poll this weekend had the following numbers:

FG 34% +1

FF 27% +2

SF 13% -2

LP 6% +1

IND 10% -2

IND ALL 5% +1

GP 3% -1

SD 2% NC

SOL/PBP 0% NC

RENUA 0% NC

Now that’s not radically different to an October SBP/RedC poll that had the following as reported on Adrian Kavanagh’s site and also includes his projections:
The 22nd October 2018 Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll estimates party support levels as follows: Fianna Fáil 25% (down 2% relative to the previous Red C opinion poll), Fine Gael 33% (up 1%), Sinn Féin 15% (up 1%), Independents and Others 22% (NC) – including Social Democrats 2%, Green Party 4%, Independents 16% – Labour Party 5% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 45, Fine Gael 67, Sinn Fein 24, Labour Party 2, Green Party 1, Social Democrats 2, Independents 19.

A bit of a squeeze on Ind/Others, SF down a bit. But it gives a sense of the sort of bands of support the parties and independents have and the sort of numbers we might expect to see.

Comments»

1. Joe - November 27, 2018

Am I right in saying that the Labour vote appears to be inching up in recent polls? If so, those one or two percent increases could mean the difference between ending up with two seats and seven or eight maybe?

Also, local elections next May is it? If we don’t have a GE before then or on the same day, the locals will be the best poll to give us an indication of how a GE might go.
I’d bet on a GE before then or at the same time, though.

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Dermot O Connor - November 27, 2018

Were Locals to occur before the GE, FG would stand to benefit most, as they’re ~10% above their 2014 Enda tally.

All the other parties are polling very close to their local 2014 vote (hard to be sure about SF, given their spread by different pollsters from mid teens to low twenties).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_local_elections,_2014

FG: 24%
FF: 25.5%
SF 15.2 %
LB 7.2%
PBP 1.7%
AAA 1.2%

Surely FG would want to wait to get some county councillors? They’d overtake FF as largest party at local level prior to the GE, instead of going in with their Enda-era leavings.

It’s only 6 months away. Flying around.

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WorldbyStorm - November 27, 2018

That’d be bitter for FF wouldn’t it be?

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Dermot O Connor - November 27, 2018

The only aspects of the current electoral mechanics that give me pleasure are the ongoing trough that FF is in (the false dawn of the previous GE), and Labour’s continuing death-march.

FF having to sit out ANOTHER 3 or 4 years, and Labour coming back with an even more miserable seat number than last time are two well-earned punishments. For dyed in the wool FF/LAB careerists (the kind of people who clearly agree with Harney’s ‘worst day in government is better than the best day in opposition’), this will be a bitter pill! For these parties to make meaningful reforms, they need to stare into the abyss for a career wrecking duration. One term in opposition isn’t nearly close enough. Ten to fifteen years min. will sharpen the mind. See: Green Party.

Ideally, I’d love to see FF win fewer than 44 seats (imagine their morale if they fall under 40!!!!!). Not impossible, though it would mean even more for FG.

Back in 2016 it must have seemed like a great wheeze for FF = supply & confidence, (we’re not really in govt., so FG will take all the blame / Conor Lenihan “We’re ba-ack”). Now, barring miracles, they face a THIRD spell in opposition! And looking like FG will GAIN ten seats or more. So FF gets all the costs of being junior coalition partner, and none of the benefits. That’s going to hurt. At what point does the party start to crack?

The one thing that might save FF is another 2008 style economic crisis, one that happens when FG are in power. But there’s no guarantee that they’ll benefit from that in any case, and not much chance that it’ll happen in time for their next GE ordeal.

*

That local 2014 SF 15.2% was pretty healthy in retrospect, better than their 2016 GE 13.8%. They’d have taken ~30 seats or more on that, had they matched it in 2016.

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WorldbyStorm - November 27, 2018

Agree completely, supply and confidence has been if not a disaster for FF something that has locked them out of power and not allowed them to grow. I wonder if they now wish they’d gone for a national coalition? They’d have had cabinet seats, etc, etc.

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Dermot O Connor - November 28, 2018

Wasn’t rotating Taoiseach on the table for MM also? He’d be in the big chair now if he’d taken it.

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