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Those positive ‘effects’ from new party leaders… November 29, 2018

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Looking at the SBP/RedC poll this last weekend it struck me that there clearly was a Varadkar effect – at least somewhat. In 2016 FG won 26% of the vote. This year it has been polling between 33 and 34%. Fianna Fáil’s fortunes have been less auspicious, varying between 22% and 27% – though M. Martin may be content that the last three polls have seen an upward tick from 22% to 27%. Mary Lou McDonald? Nothing much to write home about – SF has gone from 14% in 2016 and ranged between 16% and the now not great 13%. As to others? Independents have fallen from 13% in 1016 to 10% now, but also gone down to 9% this year as well as reaching 13%. Labour has fallen from 7% at the election down to 5% though currently they’re at 6%, which seems to be close to their usual level this year. The Independent Alliance is at 5%, but 4% is more usual. Sol/PBP have had 0% the last two polls falling from an election high of 4%. The SDs got 3% in 2016 but have been mired at 2%. The Green Party closer to the 3% they received at the election. And let’s not talk about Renua.

Determining where support shifts between parties is more difficult to ascertain – but there does appear to be some relationship between Independents and Fianna Fáil. When the latter is up the former are down.

There’s one winner in all this, Fine Gael. Come what may they can expect some seat increase at the next election, unless their ratings fall precipitously in the meantime. Fianna Fáil may also do a bit better than expected. Sinn Féin possibly a little worse. Keep this up and they could be losing seats.

Independents are going to face a culling – the question is the scale of that. I’ve mentioned before on a really bad day the current crew could be down to bare double figures. On a better day perhaps 20 odd – though that might include the LP/SDs etc. I’m certain that Sol/PBP are more robust than their 0% score, and most/many of their TDs will return, but any thought of gains must now be regarded as unlikely. Similarly for the SDs and the GP. What they have they may (just) hold though even that is not a given. And the IA may perform a little more strongly than expected. And that goes for the LP, no real room there for gains but the idea they return with most of the current crew seems reasonable – though that comes with a caveat that any who do not stand will not be replaced by new TDs.

And yet, Richard Cowell in the SBP in accompanying text, notes that there is a fundamental uncertainty to the broader contexts which makes all the above open to question. Brexit casts a shadow and he notes ‘this doesn’t appear to have had a marked impact on voter intention…’. Yet. But a crash and burn Brexit might change things significantly. Then Fine Gael’s sheen might look a little tarnished and so on.

Comments»

1. Paddy Healy - November 29, 2018

I again advise caution in respect of Red C polls. There is no raw poll published. There is pre and post polling processing.
After the Presidential Election, the November B&A General Election Poll gave; After Undecides are Eliminated but unadjusted

FF 26 FG 28 SF 26 Lab 5 Ind/others 15

As predictors of what would happen if a general election were held to morrows, as they purport to be, they can’t both be right
I prefer to track B&A raw poll month by month as an indication of political opinion.
Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil Neck and Neck in New B&A Poll
Irish Opinion Poll Analysis https://wp.me/pKzXa-jh

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Paddy Healy - November 29, 2018

If we assumed that both polls were broadly correct we would conclude that Sinn Féin support has halved in a fortnight??? There will be another B&A poll in December.

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WorldbyStorm - November 29, 2018

Absolutely, agree considerable caution is needed, still, the broader trends are interesting. As you say, B&A coming up in December so that’s a useful comparison.

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