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The wisdom of this crowd: Brexit, what happens at the end of March? January 11, 2019

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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I’ll take the temperature on this over the next two or three months, but I’m intrigued as to what people here think will happen at the end of March? No-deal Brexit? The May Brexit? Something else entirely?

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1. GW - January 11, 2019

Far too far ahead with too much uncertainty to predict.

The odds on crash-out are too long IMO – so if I was a betting ape I’d put money on that. It is more likely in the sense that there is a direct path to it without anyone having to build a majority in the UK parliament.

But at least one‘centrist dad’ gets the fact that a second referendum, if it were to be achieved, would have to be fought differently from the first.

The very method of getting to a second referendum will already have demonstrated something of crucial importance: that this is not simply a repeat of the first. It’s not Blairite, metropolitan, liberal elites telling the benighted people to vote again until they give the right answer. No, this is part of a much larger process – perhaps including a citizens’ assembly, as suggested in a recent Guardian editorial – which is a positive democratic response to the vote for Brexit. If this verbless phrase does not sound too Blairite for Corbynist ears: tough on Brexit, tough on the causes of Brexit.”

Paul Mason’s plea for party democracy in the BLP is here and Anne Pettifor’s argument that lack of party democracy will damage a Corbyn government’s prospects is here.

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2. irishelectionliterature - January 11, 2019

The vote on the deal next week will be defeated, however I think that there will have to be another vote on that deal possibly in late February or early March which will pass. Then they’ll be leaving the EU.
Can’t see a second Referendum (what would they be actually voting on?) as there is no guarantee that you wouldn’t get the same result as the last time.

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GW - January 11, 2019

At this stage I’d cautiously vote that as the second most likely outcome. The consequences for the Tories and the BLP will be dire, if that happens.

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3. Dermot O Connor - January 11, 2019

Wisdom of a very public sociologist – the dream scenario beckons. Given the recent commons votes, hard to see any Brexit deal passing the jam.

http://averypublicsociologist.blogspot.com/2018/11/is-conservative-party-about-to-die.html

This is where the death of the Tory party currently constituted comes into play. May has made the sorts of concessions on Northern Ireland and Gibraltar that would have the tabloid press screaming traitor if a Labour government had done it. And yet it has sent a ripple of consternation through the party ranks and, with any luck, among its support as well. When the deal falls, which it will, an attempt by the Brexiteers to make a second attempt spikier isn’t going to work, but is sure to alienate the remainers. And if May goes along with Hammond’s plan, which is by far the most sensible “solution” from the standpoint of the UK’s economic stability, then the leavers are left feeling pig sick. Both eventualities point toward a damaging split and a wrecking of the Tory party as we know it presently. The route to avoiding catastrophic damage, ironically, goes through the very deal leave and remain Tories find appalling and unacceptable. At least that has the virtue of deferring their preferred Brexit destinations for another day.

History has taught us to be wary about betting against the Conservative Party. Its unparalleled record of electoral success, its uncanny ability to move just enough with the times, and the impressive record it has convincing millions of ordinary people that the party of the shrinking minority interest is best at looking out for them has to command grudging admiration. But every time it has faced a crisis, the roots of its revival are present. Presently, the Tories are toxic to approximately half the population and throughout the Brexit negotiations has worked to prise apart the ideological glue of its own voter coalition. Going full-on populist under a new leader is unlikely to exceed the numbers May won in 2017, and tacking left to capture the rising class of voters means abandoning the right and allowing the core to implode further. It’s very difficult to see how the Tories can escape when the path back to stability is permanently closed. No deal brings chaos. May’s deal brings chaos. No Brexit brings chaos. These last few weeks have accelerated the crisis in the party, and, happily, the destruction of the Tories cannot be ruled out.

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4. CL - January 11, 2019

G.B has lost an empire and not yet found a role-Dean Acheson.

Probably because of the imperial hangover Britain is reluctant to pool sovereignty with the EU. But neither is capitalism in one country
feasible. Hence the current dilemma.

Is the U.K political system capable of avoiding the catastrophe of a no deal exit? We don’t know,-yet.

“One of the functions of this blog is to tell you what’s going on. Well, I’m sorry, I haven’t a clue. The whole thing is going to hell in a handbasket.” -North, the younger.
http://peterjnorth.blogspot.com

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5. An Sionnach Fionn - January 11, 2019

I thought the UK Brexit referendum was going to be defeated until the last week or two when my gut said, naw, something is wrong here.

I get that same feeling now.

My head is saying it has to be the draft withdrawal deal or something very close to it. Not a second referendum on in/out. And not a remain outcome. But my gut is saying that there may be a no deal exit based purely on the growing fatalistic mood in the UK.

The recent Channel 4 show with all those young voters saying, yeah the EU is not respecting us enough, so screw it, lets get out. I’ve read a lot of that, an almost reflex kicking back from even Leavers at the perceived notion of “foreigners” telling Brits what to do.

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irishelectionliterature - January 11, 2019

I was surprised at the amount of Leavers in the audience of that Channel 4 group of Young people, seemed to be quite a few of them were Lexiteers .
The Britain Versus the EU narrative seems to be growing.

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Daniel Rayner O'Connor - January 11, 2019

On a similar matter, hitler had a better case: Versailles was a diktat. But it would seem that that crowd are claiming for Britain the divine right to tear up treaties made freely (as hitler did, as well).
Of course,it is possible that many of that audience were planted.

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6. An Sionnach Fionn - January 11, 2019

Sorry, should be “Remainers” not “Leavers”!

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7. Phil - January 11, 2019

Over here I don’t sense any great appetite for Brexit – other than the kind of people who crop up in vox pops and ask why can’t we just get on with it?, very much as if they haven’t learnt a damn thing in two years. Very few people seem to be taking the danger of a No Deal exit seriously, though. In fact – absurd as it sounds – I’d almost say that most people don’t care: Brexit has ceased to be a grand gesture of defiance against the elite and turned back into day-to-day politics, so it’s no fun any more. At the moment I think most people’s view could be summed up as either “it’s going to be terrible, but isn’t it always?” or “it looks like it’s going to be terrible, but they’ll sort something out – don’t they always?”. If I’m honest I instinctively lean towards the second of these myself – with “they” meaning the EU – but I do think we’re in very new and unpredictable territory.

This is why I’m not keen on a second referendum, at least this side of a General Election. The proponents of a People’s Vote seem to think that the fire of populist anti-EU tub-thumping has gone out for good, so that a second referendum would enable the people of Britain to have a bit of a think about things and vote according to their better judgment. That seems hopelessly naive to me; I think it’s banked down but still smouldering – and a second vote would be the perfect opportunity for the entrepreneurs of Brexit to fan it to life again.

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WorldbyStorm - January 11, 2019

That’s precisely my fear Phil, and also however flawed the referendum was I’ve a dislike of saying a vote is illegitimate (born I think in no small part from discussions with you and ejh back in the late 00s – you convinced me). To me the second aspect of that and linked to it is that a position that splits the difference between remain and leave – I know that too is in its own way hopelessly naive, but one that retains the thrust of the leave vote while keeping the relationship as close to the EU albeit outside it as is possible, is a way forward. Still what the outcome actually will be… I worry.

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8. Polly. - January 12, 2019

I’ll put my money on No Deal. On the nose.

Can we pull this thread back up in the night of 29 March to see how we all did?

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WorldbyStorm - January 12, 2019

We surely can. and will. 🙂

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9. GW - January 13, 2019

The year is 2200. The waters have risen and all that remains of the former capital of south-east Brexitania are the sub-tropical islands of Muswell, Stamford and Highgate Hill. The islands are at permanent war with the feral tribes descended from bankers who infest the stumps of skyscrapers that mark what was once the City of London.

On a raft called, for some reason, The Royal Yacht, the ginger descendent of German aristos prepares to begin the annual ritual know as ‘the extension of the transition’. Its meaning is lost in the mists of time.

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dermot - January 13, 2019

Sounds like Gormenghast filtered through J.G. Ballard!

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GW - January 13, 2019

Anthropologists from the planetary federation of carers’, workers’ and users’ councils have tried to establish contact with the inhabitants of the three islands, but were chased off the beaches by natives with fire-hardened pointed sticks chanting their war cry of Leavemeenzleave!

The federation decided to respect the islanders’ cultural autonomy and leave them to their own devices. However food and medical supplies are regularly delivered by drones from the Welsh hills.

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