jump to navigation

Poll woe February 27, 2019

Posted by guestposter in Uncategorized.

Was talking to someone recently who thought that the Aontú polling came as a surprise to those involved in that organisation. As noted the other day the SBP/RedC poll indicated they were polling at less than 1%.

And yet the surprise is that this is a surprise. We’ve seen remarkably little momentum behind vehicles that place abortion front and centre. To expect in the wake of a referendum that was so comprehensively a majority for YES and seen as such nationwide and almost overwhelmingly accepted as a legitimate poll that somehow there’d be significant space for a party that tapped into those who voted NO was always an ask. Not least because there’s no clear path forward to over-turning that result. And surely that would be the centre of such politics, would it not? Because simply holding the views expressed by those flocking, or not, to Aontú is surely not enough and that is what would be the de facto situation from here on out.

Perhaps I do those involved a disservice, perhaps they do believe that the pushback begins with them. But again, there’s so little space for any optimism at all that matters would change in terms of public opinion in the near to medium term. And then one has to look at other polities where, at least in the modern period, over-turning provision is a work in progress even in seemingly more favourable (for them) political contexts.

And strip away that issue and what one sees is an essentially ‘centrist’ formation that could easily accommodate itself in Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil.

Add to all that something that has been noted before on this site that building a political formation is a massive task. Just look at the challenging histories of groups as diverse as RENUA and the SDs. Exciting meetings are one thing. The slog is another. It will be interesting to see how this goes.


1. irishelectionliterature - February 27, 2019

The big test I suppose in the short term is if their elected Reps hold onto their seats in the upcoming Local Elections on both sides of the border.
I wonder too would they be tempted to run a candidate in The European Elections. Renua already have a candidate for The Ireland North West constituency though.


2. benmadigan - February 27, 2019

if opposing abortion is Aontú’s USP, I can’t see them getting very far


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: