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MV3 March 15, 2019

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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I think Jonathan Freedland has it just about right, given the choice MPs barely decided not to take control of the Brexit process, instead leaving it, by a margin of two, to Theresa May, who – beyond reason, seems set to bring her deal back to a vote on on Tuesday.Six pro-Brexit Labour MPs were the ones who gave May the chance to do so again. Freedland argues convincingly that in doing so it has put it up to the ERG and DUP, faced now with either rowing in behind May or… having a delay/extension to departure for up to two years. Whereas, as he notes, there’ll have to be a technical extension even with the May deal, but at least they leave.

For many of us I suspect that departure will now be – assuming it happens at all, if not welcome, at least a sort of relief. This issue is going to continue to consume bandwidth for years to come. It has already consumed far too much on these islands. And the impacts have yet to be anywhere near fully realised, let alone felt. And that is in the less grim May deal context. Still grim, just less grim. But at least if the first step is taken there’s a chance to begin to move on.

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1. CL - March 15, 2019

“Parliament dislikes May’s deal and has voted to reject it by landslide majorities on two occasions. But MPs are also averse to doing anything that would delay Brexit for a lengthy period, let alone bring it to a halt, or even ask the voters whether they might want it to be stopped….
outlandish fantasies have become the norm…
May has blundered her way into crisis, but the smell of failure isn’t only coming from the government, but from the legislature as well.”
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/03/mps-have-taken-control-brexit-process-they-dont-know-what-do-it

Will they be able to agree on the purpose of the extension to present to the EU?

Will whatever they present be acceptable to the EU?

Barnier, Tusk and Verhofstadt are disagreeing with one another on the extension. Will the unity of the EU 27 hold?

Will there be pressure on Varadkar to emend the backstop?

Will the DUP blink and accept the backstop?

” it is very difficult to see all those MPs who have opposed the backstop on the (valid) grounds that it will have constitutional implications for the United Kingdom as a whole, including those of the DUP, reversing their position…
It could be that the only way to avoid the worst-case scenario is to take the backstop off the table.” Dan O’Brien.
https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/dan-obrien-nodeal-brexit-is-still-a-real-risk-on-both-sides-of-the-border-so-could-the-unthinkable-happen-and-the-backstop-have-to-be-removed-in-order-to-prevent-it-37912157.html

How long can the madness continue?

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2. GW - March 15, 2019

It was, contrary to expectation, a relatively interesting week in Brexshitland.

There is now at least a Parliamentary consensus for extending Article 50, but no consensus on what for, and even if that consensus existed no indication that the executive would have to heed it.

The vote for against no-deal was decisive but meaningless unless they can steer a path to no no-deal. But that much was clear already.

The fact that Labour rebels including the usual Hoey, Mann etc. ensured that Parliament can’t schedule the process from know on was extraordinary. Anti-democrats to a man and woman. And the DUP’s voting against showed them once again to be a party for a no-deal Brexit, hard border and the end of the GFA.

The British Labour party handled the process I thought honourably and honestly this week. They were right to abstain on the second referendum vote – it’s optimum time will be when it’s clear that the only choice is between May’s deal, no deal or a referendum to decide the issue. The cavilling of the SNP and Plaid was transparently to continue the drift of Labour votes to them in Scotland and Wales. There is little that the BLP can do about that without explicitly endorsing Remain and Revolt/Reform as their position.

The extent to which the British representative democracy is essentially broken was also on display.

I hope that the EU insists on a long extension of Article 50. Brexit (a decades-long elite project to bring the UK under the US regulatory jurisdiction and install an ultra-neolib fully deregulated political economy with all the damage to the working class that that implies) is crumbling under the weight of its own contradictions and another 20 months should seen it collapse completely.

But we’ll see. After all, why stop at the end of March for phase 1 of Brexit when we’re all having so much fun?

Short of a second referendum or the revoking of Article 50, Brexit will continue to suck the oxygen out of politics for at least half a decade further.

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3. An Sionnach Fionn - March 15, 2019

Local elections are scheduled for the start of May for the north, whatever happens with the European ones (will the UK keep its MEPs if an extension goes beyond the EuroParl elections at the end of May??).

That will be one to watch. I wonder will the northern nationalist vote hit a new high-water mark?

Liked by 1 person

benmadigan - March 16, 2019

Let’s hope it does

Liked by 1 person

WorldbyStorm - March 16, 2019

It better!

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Joe - March 16, 2019

“I wonder will the northern nationalist vote hit a new high-water mark?”

I doubt it will. Northern nationalists might be a bit exercised by Brexit, as we all are in one way or another, but that won’t get them out in massive numbers. What gets them out in massive numbers is when themuns call them names. It’s Arlene’s call.

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An Sionnach Fionn - March 16, 2019

True. But if the DUP are seen as the power behind the Tory throne, if they accept another Downing Street bribe? Or, conversely, if the DUP is seen as soft border wreckers?

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4. CL - March 16, 2019

‘The seriousness of the situation is being underestimated. What we are seeing is the two most divisive issues in modern British history coming together in a toxic blend: these are Brexit and the Irish Question….
British government neutrality, a central feature of the Good Friday Agreement. was discarded in 2017 when Theresa May reached her agreement with the DUP to keep her government in office….
The ingredients for the Bloody Sundays of the future are slowly accumulating’
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-bloody-sunday-boris-johnson-dup-theresa-may-northern-ireland-a8825286.html

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5. Alibaba - March 16, 2019

Why will Theresa May probably get the Withdrawal Agreement agreed eventually? Because she can.

Despite being defeated time and again she remains in office. She alone is the only person with a negotiated deal recognised by the EU. Moreover she has forced politicians to come to their political senses: support May’s deal or battle with the realities of getting concerned with the unwanted alternatives available.

Of course there are other possible outcomes. The crash out cannot be excluded, but it is unlikely even if May’s deal is defeated (yet again) as the extension to Article 50 will inevitably be given by the EU. And the inability to function properly goes on and on.

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