jump to navigation

A May deal better than no deal – eh? March 26, 2019

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
trackback

At least for one member of the ERG.

Comments»

1. yourcousin - March 26, 2019

Crucial detail, it’s not down to a May deal and a no deal, Brexit, but between a May deal and NO Brexit at all. Unless I’m misunderstanding. Also worth noting that the DUP want a one year extension. And Tusk, taking a note right out of GW’s book has noted, “hope dies last”.

Like

CL - March 26, 2019

‘No deal’ remains the default, unless or until there is a HoC majority for an alternative to May’s deal; and this alternative would have to be acceptable to the EU 27.
Rees Mogg and others of his ilk are worried that such an alternative which would involve a long extension, and participation in the EU elections, may evolve into remaining in the EU, so they are looking more favourably on May’s deal.
Revoking the application to leave under Article 50,-no Brexit- remains an option, but highly unlikely.

Like

yourcousin - March 26, 2019

I should have been clearer, a Brexit crash out is the most likely scenario, but Rees-Mog is stating that what is causing him to change his mind (potentially) is not the prospect of a crash out exit, but of not exiting at all.

Like

WorldbyStorm - March 26, 2019

You’re both right!

Like

CL - March 26, 2019

Rees Mogg is turning wobbly because the prospect of a crash-out is receding. Its receding because an alternative to May’s deal, a softer Brexit, might develop out of the ‘indicative’ votes tomorrow. If Parliament tomorrow gives no indication of a realistic alternative to May’s WA, crash-out will look much more likely, and the ultras are more than happy with that.

Like

WorldbyStorm - March 26, 2019

So in a way things hinges on tomorrow. At least until the next crisis?

Like

CL - March 26, 2019

Yes, but manana is receding due to the EU imposed deadline.
It could come down to a clash of identarian politics: ERG-ites, at least some of them, to preserve their Englishness will vote for the WA rather than risk a long extension; the DUP to preserve their Britishness will never vote for the WA, but might take their chances with a long extension if that becomes a plausible way forward.
Alternatively, people in white coats, carrying strait-jackets, may be seen entering Parliament, removing some members screaming incoherently.

Liked by 2 people

WorldbyStorm - March 26, 2019

🙂 That might be the only solution!

Like

2. Joe - March 27, 2019

Some talk in the papers today of what they call ‘May’s Deal’ – which is really of course ‘May’s and the EU’s deal’ – looking slightly more likely to finally get through. Arch Brexiteers and DUP reluctantly backing it for fear of No Brexit at all if they don’t – that’s the speculation. But part of the process would be May announcing her resignation date. If it comes to pass, I’d hope the resignation date would be sooner rather than later. Because I’d really enjoy watching the Tories tearing themselves apart in a vicious, nasty leadership election.
The nature of British politics is tweedledum tweedledee – if it’s not the Tories in power, it’s Labour. When a British government cocks up, the electorate choose the other side at the next election. The more the Tories infight the more likely a Labour government next time. Please tell me I’m right?
So a Jez-led Labour government in a few years time. One last throw of the dice for one nation left social democracy.

Like


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: