Far less Labour candidates than 2014 April 25, 2019
Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.trackback
I know nominations have yet to close but was amazed to see the areas in the Local Elections that lack a Labour candidate.
The Labour Party Site with candidates and Adrian Kavanaghs one listing the Labour candidates
In 2014 they ran 198 candidates, this time at the minute they have 104 candidates running. After Boundary changes there are more Local Electoral Areas now than there were in 2014.
Notable places no longer with candidates are Howth-Malahide, Tallaght South and Tallaght Central (the two Tallaght Cllrs left Labour and Mick Duff is contesting as an Indo). Parts of Cork County , all of the non City Galway LEAs are bereft of Labour candidates. They are only contesting half the LEAs in Meath, no candidates in Offaly or Roscommon, areas in Tipperary with no candidate. Two of the three Waterford City LEAs have no Labour candidate either.
I imagine a lot of parties are finding it difficult to persuade people to run.
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
They announced Denis Mackin in Tallaght Central this afternoon
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Thanks
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Apologies for my anal pedantry, but should that be “Far fewer candidates”?
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You’re right I’d imagine.
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I can confirm that Paul is right.
🙂
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And yet Labour are running 3 candidates in Cabra/Glasnevin where their outgoing cllr has retired because of this policy.
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Thanks for reminding me of Adrian Kavanagh’s site. It tells me that Siobhan Shovlin will be the second FG candidate in Cabra Glasnevin. So three Labour, two FF, two SF, two FG, one WP, one SP? and at least three indos that I know of. So far.
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And one Green. And definitely one SP. And of course one SocDem. And four indos. So far.
For seven seats.
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It’s a pile up.
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“It’s a pile up.”
I pass the posters on the various bus routes I use and wonder who among them are hopefuls who see a future in the council council chamber, or maybe even in Leinster House, or a minister’s office, or Brussels, but who will be disappointed, maybe deeply, on 25 May.
And how many of the disappointed will be back and eventually make it.
Or will any of them do a Peter Sutherland, and fail at that first hurdle (well, the Dáil i his case), never put their name before the people again, but end up in a globally powerful office or two?
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Early prediction on this particular pile up:
1 FF (Fitzpatrick); 1 SF (McGrattan); 1 Lab (Clancy); 1 SD (Gannon); 1 Ind (Perry); 1 FG; and 1 more. In no particular order.
The FG slate appears weak (to me) but there has to be one FG seat here. The last seat could go anywhere. I’m saying Clancy for Labour based on her long record on the Council and she’s in the Glasnevin end. Gannon will get the liberal vote, that and his Euro profile should get him in.
I’d be more familiar with the Glasnevin end so that last seat could go to someone who gets a decent vote west of Cabra east (if you follow), down the Navan Road end.
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The key reasons would be targeting of resources where most effective & Labour also has a 40% gender target. You could run a lot of ‘token’ flagbearer candidates but there’s a trade off between effort of convincing people to do this when it’s a long shot area with no Labour tradition and getting a campaign up & running from a simple logistical point of view versus focusing on most likely gains. 2014 Labour figure inflated with abolition of town councils, high levels of incumbency post 2009 election gains, and had lots more TDs & Senators to support candidates. Likely still a few flag bearers to be added. there is a candidate in Howth-Malahide (Brian McDonagh) & one of the waterford City candidates (Jack Walsh) died suddenly in late January
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Replying to your prediction Joe – a party poll showed Sherlock of Labour ahead of Clancy and the second shinner should retain their seat as it’s Mary Lou’s heartland. Think you’re right on the others incl a FG seat.
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What are people’s thoughts on how Labour will fare out? I presume Joe Costelloe will retake a seat in NIC but where else can they gain/retain?
Also , any predictions on gains for the SD’s?
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Thanks AdoPerry. You would think there’d be two Shinner seats – but if memory serves, McGrattan didn’t do as well as expected the last two times out, even if he did get elected. And aren’t they both Cabra based? So they’ll be divvying Cabra with Cieran Perry among others. I stick with my prediction of one for SF!
Interesting party poll from Labour – competition can be good and I suppose they’ve an outside chance of taking two seats with those two… and an equally outside chance of taking none!
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Someone said to me today they thought that Costello was slow off the mark this election – and they’d be LP adjacent the person who said it. I don’t know about the SDs. I think if the party had been formed earlier they’d have been a real threat but as Joe says, they seem to be struggling.
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So an ad for Siobhan Shovlin of FG in Cabra Glasnevin popped up on my FB feed. It appears she’s based down the Navan Road end. And Colm O’Rourke their other candidate is Cabra-based afaik. Which leaves a big gap in Glasnevin, which should be a good area for them. Wouldn’t be surprised if they throw in another candidate from that end before nominations close.
And just on their two current candidates – both young, in their twenties I’d say.
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Some of the FG posters around our way aren’t great. Too bright or light or something.
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Well like clockwork he was at a match in Dalymount last Friday. You can always tell there’s an election on when you see Joe C there either that or we’ve won something but it’s been a while.
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I’m actually really looking forward to seeing the results. Will be an interesting exercise in gauging support for a lot of people, or lack of same 🙂
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As to Labour and SD gains generally. Hard to say without the local knowledge. They are both struggling badly in national polls though. So the locals could be a bit of a disaster for both. I know an active SDer and they are running a serious campaign in his areas – Donaghmede and Artane.
For different reasons – SD are new, Labour are trying to recover and renew – there’s very, very few names that jump out from around Dublin of candidates from either party that would be expected to take seats.
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Far less Labour candidates than 2014 | The Cedar Lounge Revolution
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