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Who are the 0.3%? May 16, 2019

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

I ask that question give this post on Slugger by Niall Kelly who digs into the very interesting LucidTalk Northern Ireland European Election poll from this very week. The headline figures are of interest in themselves.

Top line figures (including DKs)

SF 25% (-1)

DUP 18% (-3)

UUP 11% (-2)

SDLP 12% (-1)

Alliance 10% (+3)

Then these are figures with DKs removed.

SF 27.2%
DUP 20.2%
SDLP 13.1%
UUP 11.8%
Alliance 11.3%
TUV 8.5%
Green 4.6%
Unionist for Brexit 1.7%
Ind Morrice 1.4%
Con & Ind McCann 0.1% each
The Quota will be 25%.

A quick totalling of the various blocs is intriguing. 40.3% for SF/SDLP, 42.3% or so for DUP/UUP/TUV/UfB/Con and Alliance and GP commanding 15% or so.

But Kelly does a real service by working through possible (mind that, only possible) transfer patterns. He argues that Naomi Long of Alliance is very much in contention for the third seat after Sinn Féin’s Martina Anderson and the DUP’s Diane Dodds.

It raises an interesting point, doesn’t it, if two anti-Brexit/anti-hard Brexit MEPs were elected from the North.

Be that as it may, theres another aspect to the Kelly’s analysis which I find intriguing. That is as follows – looking at Count 2 he writes:

At this point Martina Anderson’s surplus will be reallocated as she is just over 14,000 votes over quota. According to LucidTalk her second preferences will be distributed accordingly:
DUP 0.3%, SDLP 23.9%, UUP 0.3%, Alliance 42.0%, Green 14.5%, Morrice 1.3%, Non-Transferable 17.6%.

Who on earth are SF voters who then transfer to the DUP, or the UUP?

Is this contrarianism writ small, random noise, mistakes? And it works the other way too in various elections.


1. Liberius - May 16, 2019

Contrarians, donkey voters or in some cases (not really relevant here) transferring based on personal preference for candidates rather than party/ideological affiliation.

With donkey voting, you’d like to think people don’t vote like that, but some of them they do.


Liked by 1 person

WorldbyStorm - May 16, 2019

I know, though I’ve given up wondering why people vote in any manner of ways. And then there’s the folk who say they don’t know elections are on.


Joe - May 16, 2019

Donkey voting is all well and good but surely to God these people should know the difference between a Protestant donkey and a Catholic donkey.


2. EWI - May 16, 2019

Who on earth are SF voters who then transfer to the DUP, or the UUP?

Is this contrarianism writ small, random noise, mistakes? And it works the other way too in various elections.

SF voters showing what they think of the SDLP lashup with the anti-SF (anti-Republican) FF under Michéal Martin? And you can fairly bet that Newt and cohort won’t be drawing attention to the steady march of demographics, or northern nationalist voters (who also voted against Brexit) demonstrating rather more sophistication than the IT etc. have ever admitted.

Liked by 1 person

3. Paul Culloty - May 16, 2019

During the NI local council elections, SF defeated Alliance for the last seat in one electoral ward (can’t remember which council) thanks to a transfer from …TUV!

Liked by 1 person

4. roddy - May 16, 2019

It was in Bannside ,North Antrim, just next door to the very Republican South Derry.Much humour has been expressed and many questions asked as to how this could happen.In fact the answer is very simple.The SF candidate was called Ian Friary and some TUV dunderhead thought that the very non “taigy” name could only belong to a loyal son of Ulster and gave him a preference before he noticed the SF logo!

Liked by 1 person

makedoanmend - May 17, 2019

Ian is my spouse’s first cousin. He owns a pub in that part of Antrim and runs a solid business. His pub is considered somewhat of a haven from all the usual bullshit that can crop up in that neck of the woods, and so has developed a varied clientele. He’s an ecumenical rePublican. He figures that is why “that” transfer vote put him over the quota. (He also has pretty extensive Scottish connections and that might not have hurt either.)

One of the things, I hypothesize, that scares the diehards in the DUP and their ilk is the fear that their traditional core vote might be drifting “off message”. It’s not the first time I’ve come across someone from that area whose ideas and expressions have not jived with what one typically expects. I can’t help but feel that the freedom of movement and travel across all of Ireland helps to foster a bigger world picture for all our inhabitants. It helps us get out of the hologram of media bullshit which distorts so much to foster division. (Even when those so-called “expert” pundits claim they are the only ones acting as adults; /sarc.)


5. roddy - May 16, 2019

Again the 0.3% is very explainable.It’s an undisputable fact that SF provide the best constituency service of all parties in the North.Attendees at their offices would be representative of the demographics of the area the office is situated in.Many protestants use SF offices and some have said to me “where else would you go? Our own side are for fuck all!”.Thus is it inconceivable that a handful of people in an opinion poll would give a “thank you” no 1 to SF and then return down the ballot paper to their traditional voting habits?


WorldbyStorm - May 16, 2019

Possibly! A slow process to get to the other 40% of the electorate or whatever that they constitute though… I’m trying to work out how many years that would take.


6. Miguel62 - May 17, 2019

The 0.3% is one person. Let’s assume a polling sample of about 1000 (which produces the normal MOE of about 2.7% quoted in the slugger article) Then the SF vote is 250 responders. One of them says they will transfer to DUP. That’s 0.4%. If the sample size were slightly bigger, say 1100 to 1200, that brings the number to 0.3%, rounded to one decimal point. Statistically insignificant.


7. roddy - May 17, 2019

Makedoandmend, I agree with you 100% about media bullshit fostering division.I despise the DUP and much of the UUP but that does not translate into every day interactions with their voters.I also detest “holier than thou” politicians mouthing about a “shared future” and telling me to get on with my neighbours. I guarantee you if anybody was to ask me or my protestant neighbours did we need to be preached at to live happily alongside each other, the answer would be – “fuck off”,our families have known each other for generations and helped each other for generations.However that does not mean that I will ever accept the 6 county state as anything but illegitimate.


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