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Uh-oh… May 17, 2019

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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I think CL linked to this in comments. Read it and weep.

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1. irishelectionliterature - May 17, 2019

John Crace was on one of the Guardians podcasts earlier in the week talking about it. As a sketch writer he’d normally add humour to things, this event was too frightening for that!

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2. CL - May 17, 2019

” MPs need to wake up before it’s too late and the populist demagogues have taken over.”-Crace.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/may/17/westminster-is-asleep-at-the-wheel-as-farage-bids-to-fill-political-vacuum

“The Brexit Party is on a roll because some 30 per cent of Brits want to see a hard, xenophobic No Deal Brexit. This is the new reality. It is a case study in what Hannah Arendt called the “temporary alliance of the elite and the mob”.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/05/labour-s-refusal-oppose-brexit-killing-it-doorstep-it-should-quit-talks

“The democratic double disaster of Brexit and Trump gives liberals licence to revive the prejudices of 19th-century mass psychology: people are irrational, or at least horrendously ill-informed….
But have so many people really been converted to the views of the far right? Contrary to the domino theory propounded by pundits, and by the populists themselves – first Brexit, then Trump, then Le Pen etc – the fact remains that no right-wing populist has yet come to power anywhere in Western Europe or North America without the collaboration of established conservative elites.”
https://www.lrb.co.uk/v41/n10/jan-werner-muller/populism-and-the-people

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3. Dermot M O Connor - May 17, 2019

Brexit Party opens a 19% lead.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/16/labour-and-tories-lose-majority-support-brexit-pro

BP: 35%
LibDems: 16%
Lab: 15%
Grn: 10%
Con: 9%
Chuk: 5%
UKIP: 3%
SNP: 3%

BP / Con / UKIP = 47% (add in a few Lab leavers, the undecided, and country is still split too close to call were a second ref to happen, contra the Guardian liberal groupthink bubble). Given the heat propelling the BP, I’d have to put my money on Brexit passing a second time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom

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4. CL - May 17, 2019

The Brexit party surge is unlikely to carry over to a GE. Still…

“Just as Brexit Party support is likely to move back to the Tories in the event of a general election, so, Labour hopes they will claw back Green and Lib Dem votes – especially if a confirmatory referendum is promised in any manifesto….
the party must, for the time being, try to straddle that painful divide – not wanting to be seen to be undemocratic and anti-Brexit (although that is how they’re viewed by the Brexit Party), nor to be pro-Brexit and facilitating a right-wing project (as they are seen by hard Remainers).
This ambiguity has sucked some of the energy out of Corbynism, but while the Tory party seems to be disintegrating in front of our eyes, Labour seems happy to just stand and watch. It may see them perform poorly in the European elections, but they hope it will pay off in the form of a Labour government. They may even be right.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-party-farage-corbyn-conservatives-momentum-general-election-a8918561.html

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5. Dermot M O Connor - May 17, 2019

Internal tory members polled on leadership candidates:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/10059

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WorldbyStorm - May 17, 2019

Jesus – about as bad as might be expected

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6. CL - May 18, 2019

“the political civil war convulsing Britain is now in full swing, and is likely to get worse….
Those who have clung to the centre are now heading to the extremes, pulled by forces the leadership of both parties can no longer control….
Purist thinking, the pre-requisite to any sleepwalk into catastrophe, is now dangerously fashionable…..
EU officials talk of capitals being in “suspended disbelief” at what is happening….
Given that the Tory grassroots have swung truculently behind no deal, a rhetorical arms race will catapult a Boris Johnson or a Dominic Raab into Number 10 on the promise of a showdown with Brussels….
“The Tory party will be in an existential crisis after the European elections,”,,,,

So either a no deal stand-off in the House of Commons or a last minute extension request could trigger a collapse in the government followed by a general election.
The Brexit Party, emboldened by their anticipated success in the European elections, would scoop up more Tory votes….
Neither party would command an overall majority, and the House would again be divided along tribal rather than party lines: ”
https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2019/0517/1050180-connelly-blog/

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