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Weekend poll May 18, 2019

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Two polls, actually, their implications for the European and local Elections a bit diffuse given that voting patterns for both can differ from national polls.

RedC/Sunday Business Post

FG 28% -5

FF 24% +1

SF 13% -1

GP 7% +4

LP 5% NC

IND ALL 2% NC

SOL-PBP 2% +1

SD 2% NC

Aontú 2% +1

RENUA 1% +1

INDS 14% -2

The margin of error is 3%

Sunday Times/B&A

FG 28% NC

FF 28% -1

SF 19% – 2

GP 5% +4

LP 4% NC

IND ALL 3% -1

SD 1% NC

SOL-PBP 3% +2

INDS 9% -1

Margin of error is 3.2%

Any other details welcome. Not a lot to say other than that GP figure appears to describe a real phenomenon. And that LP ‘revival’ appears conspicuous by its absence. Inds not performing as strongly as one might imagine given the proximity of a local election. And FG must be wondering why they didn’t go to the polls for a GE last year, or the one before.

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1. Dermot M O Connor - May 18, 2019

So much for that Labour bounce the IT was talking up a few days ago (on the back of one poll with a 3.5% MOE).

The RedC anti SF animus still going strong though.

GP 7 and 5, yikes. Both outside MOE. Eating any potential Labour recovery. Greens Piggybacking the ‘cheap heat’ of the Extinction Rebellion / Greta Thunberg PR stunts, methinks.

Give this to Peadar Toibin: he’s just one man, and he’s doing a better job of kick-starting a party then the centrist technocrat types like Renua in Ireland or CHUK in the UK. It’s almost as if he’s not afraid of a bit of hard work.

The dream scenario I think would be FF/FG each winning exactly the same number of seats. Cat/Pigeons.

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2. 1729Torus - May 18, 2019

If FG continue to pander to the top 20% of the population while being utterly incompetent, they only have themselves to blame if their vote continues to shrink.

The rise of the Greens mirrors a trend you see in Germany with the German Greens displacing the SDP and CDU.

I think the Greens will be the cudgel of choice for centre to centre-right voters sick of FF/FG, and will enjoy fairly rapid growth as a result.

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Dermot M O Connor - May 19, 2019

Indeed. Saw a piece recently where a young professional couple were being priced out of Dublin, never mind people lower down the economic pyramid. A housing crisis that they have made no attempt to solve (outside of Thatcherite market codology), and now corpses rotting in corridors in Waterford.

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1729Torus - May 19, 2019

You have to consider the long term effects as well. Experiences when you are young tend to shape you politically for the rest of your life.

I can tell you from personal experience that having to share a room with two complete strangers in Dublin tends to make you less inclined towards “rugged individualism” and makes you loathe FF/FG.

When you have roommates wanting to use the toilet when you’re in the shower, you aren’t going to be complaining about the idea of having to share a bus to go to work instead of having your own car.

I come from a poor family so it was no big deal, but you can imagine the effect on someone from a posher background.

FG are basically destroying their own social base in the long run by forcing the next generation of would-be FG voters to basically live in tenements and be gouged by landlords. This in turn means they’re going to be communal-minded and sceptical of captial, and will vote accordingly.

Which means no future FG voters at all.

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kestrel - May 19, 2019

not sure about this. in some abstruse way are f.g. forcing you to take the initial title of some of these older central big houses. forcing you to take responsibility; as opposed to fall-back to the local authority.
in Dublin I know some young spanish, Italian, workers are dazed completely by their bad (irish) treatment.

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1729torus - May 19, 2019

You mean mistreatment by ordinary Irish people?

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3. 1729Torus - May 18, 2019

test

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4. Paul Culloty - May 18, 2019

Anyone see the physical paper yet for the Euro poll?

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5. Paddy Healy - May 19, 2019

As usual Red C has Sinn Féin a full 6 points below B&A score of 19%
But even RED C with its pro-rich in built bias has FG down 5%!
There will be a major crisis in Labour Party after this election. Irish Times had a full page article promoting Labour a few days ago!
The Green rise has stymied the Labour attempt to attract the caring middle classes while the ground in working class communities has beden colonised by Sinn Féin and small left wing parties. Replacing Howlin with Alan Kelly wouldn’t improve matters. Can trade union leaderships tolerate a situation where Labour has a quarter of the SF vote and the combined left is at least as big as Labour?
Great to see Lynn Boylan (SF) highlighting the threat to Irish neutrality in her campaign

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1729Torus - May 19, 2019

As I said in my comment above, the Greens are a threat to FG and Labour the same way the German Greens threaten the CDU and SPD.

Rather than tying themselves to one specific party, trade unions should divide funding amongst leftwing parties on the basis of their electoral support while giving money to leftwing thinktanks to shift the broad intellectual landscape in a favourable direction.

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WorldbyStorm - May 19, 2019

Couldn’t agree more. BTW, I was speaking to a GP member a couple of months ago who was doing precisely that, attempting to get the party to engage with the unions. Long past time in my opinion. And SF has been doing useful work too in that regard over the last ten years.

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Daniel Rayner O'Connor - May 19, 2019

I noticed in the IT article that one Labour activist shrugged off the election landslides of ’92 and ’11 as exceptional and regarded 15-16 seats as to be regarded as the LP norm.
This could be considered simple realism, or it could be an example of Labour preparing to give up the ghost.
Such fatalism could be seen even after the ’11 election when Gilmore refused to make a claim for taoiseach.

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6. Paddy Healy - May 19, 2019

Ireland South Constituency European Election
May 19 Deirdre Clune (nee Barry) FG MEP Down to 7% in Red C Poll-Mick Wallace on 8%, O’Sullivan Green also on 8% !!!
https://wp.me/pKzXa-1iu
Desperate Attempt to save seat of Deirdre Clune (nee Barry) FG MEP Continues but seems to be failing. Two other FG Candidates were Banned from FG’s Cork Euro Hustings. Last Week MRBI Irish Times Ireland South Poll FG Candidates Kelly 18%, Clune 10%, Doyle 9%

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Paddy Healy - May 19, 2019

Phoenix Claims the Ban on Doyle from Cork hustings was a stunt to Attract Publicity for FG candidates. Doesn’t see to have worked!!!

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Paddy Healy - May 19, 2019

Andrew Doyle FG Wicklow is also on 7% according to RED C Today

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7. roddy - May 19, 2019

Whats Ni Riada at in red C ,Paddy?

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8. Paddy Healy - May 19, 2019

B&A Raw Polls-No Pre or Post Processing https://wp.me/pKzXa-jh
May 19: FF 21 FG 21 SF 17 Lab 4 GN/Others 15 Undec22
April 21:FG 22 FF 21 SF 16 Lab 4 GN/Others 13 Undec 24
As Margin of error is 3.2%, there is no significant change over the past month for FG, FF, SF, Lab. Other Data shows a significant increase for Greens within GN/OTHERS

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9. Paddy Healy - May 19, 2019

Sinn Féin in Red C Richard Cowell in SB POST

“Sinn Féin also does well, with all three candidates securing second place in each constituency. The party’s general election polling registered for the past year by Red C at in and around 13-15 per cent holds for each candidate. Matt Carty secures 14 per cent in Midlands North West, Liadh Ní Riada secures 15 per cent in South and Lynn Boylan secures 13 per cent in Dublin. These results put the party in a strong position to secure three seats.”
Cowell explains that all euro results quoted derive from a combination of the national Poll and questions to the panel of respondents they use for their marketing work?? I haven’t sen any Euro Poll from B&A

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10. roddy - May 19, 2019

Thanks Paddy.

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11. Paddy Healy - May 19, 2019

RED C normally gives a lower score for SF than does B&A. B&A have SF on 19% in a national poll. I would be surprised if Liadh Ni Riada got less than 19%. It must be remembered that almost 40% of people who said the would vote for SF in a General Election said they had voted for Michael D in the Presidential election.

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12. Paddy Healy - May 19, 2019

On the other hand, there are many many candidates who will get localised and niche votes. So it could be that Liadh Ní Riada may not reach the “national” SF 19% until the lowest remaining(uneliminated) CANDIDATE is on 8%-40% of a 4 seat quota(20%).

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13. Paddy Healy - May 19, 2019

In both Polls Today Sol-PBPA are up to 2% in one and 3 % in the other. One has to be careful with thee figures because of the margin of error. But anecdotal evidence reaching me indicates that in addition to Sol/PBPA other lefts including Ind4 Change, WUAG(Tipperary) and other independent lefts are quite buoyant in view of the response they are getting on doors. It is worth recalling that when one adds representatives of Sol/PBPA, I4Change, WUAG , thir number is double that of the Labour Party in the Dáil. Labour currently has 51 Local Authority seats, having lost over 80 seats in 2014. Labour has no candidate in many local authority elecoral units in its traditional Munster heartland,.For example it has only 4 candidates in the 8 electoral units in Co Tipperary. It has no candidate in Clonmel where the party was founded!!! Labour has just 1 sitting councillor in Co Tipp.

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14. GW - May 19, 2019

The boosting of Green Party polling after the return of climate emergency politics from below is general pattern across much of Europe.

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Joe - May 20, 2019

Yep. Wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Green romping in for a Euro seat in Dublin. Chance in Ireland South too.
And of course an increase in the number of Green local councillors too.
Back to the centre of the universe – Cabra-Glasnevin. I’m wavering on my bold prediction of two Labour seats – given the polls they could end up with one or even none.
So where does this leave us?
Latest prediction: SF 1; FF 1; FG 1; Green 1; Lab 1; Ind 1 (Perry); and the last seat goes to… I haven’t a clue but I’ll say SP (Harrold), getting a boost from her name being on the Euro list as well.

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