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Exit Poll May 24, 2019

Posted by Tomboktu in Uncategorized.
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My attempts to add these to a comment have failed, so a new post

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1. Enzo - May 24, 2019

Only in Dublin could the “green wave” go to a former shareholder in fossil fuel companies who was part of the Green Party when they turned their back on the shell 2 sea campaign.

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WorldbyStorm - May 24, 2019

You’ve definitely a point but that said pretty much every candidate was compromised one way or another

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Dr. Nightdub - May 25, 2019

Case in point: coming home from the polling station, her nibs couldn’t believe I’d even give SF a lower preference, given their treatment of Mairia Cahill.

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Enzo - May 25, 2019

I think the one positive is that public opinion is now so focused on climate change, the Greens should hopefully be under more scrutiny and not be able to get away with their usual shenanigans.

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WorldbyStorm - May 25, 2019

Agreed Enzo.

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GW - May 25, 2019

I’d hazard a guess that the Greens will do better than expected throughout the EU, and that the rightist authoritarian nationalists less well than their collaborators in parts of the meeja predict.

The point with the Greens is that they are mostly snuggling up to the neoliberal centre. Positively touting for business here in Germany.

‘The market’ can and will never do anything effective about the climate emergency. Probably ever but certainly not in the time available. A point I tried to make, with my usual subtlety (:-)) at the F4F yesterday.

As Enzo says, they need to be called out, often and loudly.

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GW - May 25, 2019

Apart from in Brexitania, of course, which is a world to itself.

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2. 1729Torus - May 24, 2019

When the economy is growing rapidly, a leftwing party can’t just dole out money to people like Bertie back in 2005 since that just risks inflation that will hurt the lower half of the population.

Instead, leftwing parties should be concentrating on making all of the economy more efficient and making people’s money go further.

People might complain the Greens are “rightwing”, but every leftwing party should be engaging in “rightwing” policies such as keeping the deficit, private sector borrowing, and inflation under proper control; and strengthening the supply side of the economy of instead of trying to stimulate demand.

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3. irishelectionliterature - May 24, 2019

Dublin. Andrews could just shade it over Boylan. Don’t think Gannon out of it either. Ryan Harold and Brien all local to him. Cuffe and White transfers could put him ahead of Boylan.

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4. Tomboktu - May 24, 2019

Noel Whelan has pointed out that the 2014 exit poll was out by 2.5 for FF.

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5. Mort - May 25, 2019

Bit of a Dublin disaster for Sinn Fein.
To drop the vote by 50% is impressive.

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6. EWI - May 25, 2019

Obviously a lot depends on transfers and Brex**it, but some welcome placings there (and one or two disappointing). A politically unopposed FG with a fawning press and its hands on the levers of patronage seems to have escaped.

But; c’mon, Ming.

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7. Enzo - May 25, 2019

Where does Labour go from here?

Looks like that “bounce” in the Irish Times poll was well off the mark.

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Dermot M O Connor - May 25, 2019

speaks very poorly for the political nous of the IT that they would spin a Lab bounce on the back of one rogue poll. An uncharitable person would be forgiven for thinking them biased rather than objective journalists.

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stillradical - May 25, 2019

Completely agree. It was interesting though that there has been little commentary since. Really interesting to see how Labour are going to fare in the coming days. The left in general may struggle in the locals.

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WorldbyStorm - May 25, 2019

I was listening to an IT politics podcast a few weeks back and they made no bones about their views being liberal and by their lights centrist. I’m not really surprised that they big up the LP and aren’t huge on SF – that’s a pretty conventional view in this state on the soft left. The poll spinning was stupid, how much was about building a story just to have a story, or following their own inclination or whatever is difficult to assess (the poll itself was bland and like all the polls until this last week or so didn’t indicate any green lift – so I’d tend to a mix of the first two dynamics). And they certainly should get stick over it. But the paper with actual influence is not the IT, it’s the one most people buy and that is the various iterations of the Independent. And that as we know is even more anti-SF. And in fairness many on the left aren’t much enchanted with SF either.

Very very possible the left will find this a difficult election.

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Dermot M O Connor - May 25, 2019

I thought Journalists are supposed to report the news instead of making it?

If they do want to make the news instead of reporting it, they should join the Labour party they seem to love so much. I imagine giving up the journo salaries and bennies might be too much to ask.

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WorldbyStorm - May 25, 2019

Absolutely, and they should be both embarrassed about it and shouldn’t’ be allowed to forget it either. But I’m not surprised that they over-egged this poll. They wrote what they wanted to see. Stupid of them.

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8. Tomboktu - May 25, 2019

If those results stack up, it’ll be my 5 or 6 that will help elect somebody.

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9. Jim Monaghan - May 25, 2019

SF damaged. Far Left disappear.

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GW - May 25, 2019

Shame about Lynn Boylan, if she doesn’t get in. Especially by a Green EPP-hugger. She’s always been active on the climate emergency in the European Parliament.

The place where real action might be forced upon backsliding national governments.

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EWI - May 25, 2019

Shame about Lynn Boylan, if she doesn’t get in. Especially by a Green EPP-hugger. She’s always been active on the climate emergency in the European Parliament.

She might do more good in the Dáil, as you say.

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Alibaba - May 25, 2019

Too true.

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nollaigoj - May 26, 2019

I see from above pictograph on on the Dublin constituency that those displayed projections total 90%. Any skewed redistribution of the remaining 10% could affect the current rankings massively.

Jim
A bit hard to get any precise insight into the situation from over here. What’s your analysis of the poor performance of SF or the Far Left?
Far Left blighted by their support of the UK Brexit campaign?
Solidarity affected by internal divisions?
SF new leadership too focus group orientated? SF suffered from reaction to Lyra McKee shooting?

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10. GW - May 25, 2019

Interesting about Ming – will he get transfers from C*y, I wonder.

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11. Dermot M O Connor - May 25, 2019

Assuming the exit poll is reasonably correct, the Green surge is staggering. How long have we been anoraking the polls, trying to detect moves in support. Then apparently overnight a +7% Green party move, for which there was very little sign in any of the previous polls. They’ve been at 2/3/4 in poll after poll, and if this is accurate they’ll be pushing 9%!

B&A did show a 5% for them in their last pre-election poll:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Irish_general_election#Opinion_polls

I wonder if B&A detected a higher number in the raw data, and if so, didn’t believe it? They wouldn’t be the first company to massage a number down. That B&A also had SF at 19% and FF/G at 28% each, so wouldn’t hang too much on their overall accuracy in any case.

Assuming Greens % delivers in locals it’ll give them a huge cohort of candidates for the GE (previous locals they’ve only ever been about 2 to 3%, with seats in low double figures).

The lure of coalition beckons again. They took 6 seats when they were in the 4-5% range in 2002 and 2007. Surely more is possible now?

https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2016/05/31/green-party-target-constituencies-for-the-next-general-election/

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WorldbyStorm - May 25, 2019

I know. I can’t help but feel that this is a case of people not really willing to seal the deal with FF/FG/LP and yet not convinced by the further left or even the ‘soft’ left. After all, it’s what, 7% or so of the overall vote travelling from one place to another. Not huge but enough to deliver a whacking to a lot of people in a small way and give the GP a real lift.

Big question for me riffing on your thoughts of potential seats is where do they open up? They presumably will somewhere, but perhaps more modest gains at a GE? That said they could get 4 plus on a good day and as you say 6 plus on a very good day.

As to coalition. They’ll do it knowing them, but they might be a little cautious this time. That said, employment high, Brexit apart economy stable ish. Perhaps if they went in with housing as a priority that if it wasn’t delivered on they’d walk that’d be one thing… but… prepare for disappointment!

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Dermot M O Connor - May 25, 2019

Yeah, history repeating. It was raining gravy in 2007 when they went in with Bertie – and very rough waters are ahead again, sooner rather than later.

FF isn’t the only party that could do a supply/confidence deal – better that than going with with FG marketeers and 10K runners.

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WorldbyStorm - May 25, 2019

Urgh… an FG/GP lash up. The worst of all worlds. As you say it’s going to get messy anyhow.

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12. gypsybhoy69 - May 25, 2019

Liked this from Mandate’s Communication Officer David Gibney

Remember the Green Party cut minimum wage by €1ph (12%), privatised the 999 emergency call centre & awarded to British Telecom who de-recognised unions, abstained on the UN vote for water as a human right, agreed to bank guarantee & bailout?

No?

Neither did Dublin #EP2019

12:17am · 25 May 2019 · Twitter for iPhone

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WorldbyStorm - May 25, 2019

Absolutely crucial to keep them reminded of what they did in government and why that’s not going to be tolerated again.

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Tomboktu - May 25, 2019

I saw a comment yesterday evening that a difference between the GP and Lab after their defeats is that the GP’s rebuilding exercise involved the membership, but Lab’s was controlled by the PLP. If the first part of that is true, they will have plenty of internal voices reminding them.

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