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Referendum and Local election count thread May 25, 2019

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Now open! Those exit polls last night were fascinating. If they are close to accurate, and what’s the sense of that, then a good day or couple of days for the Green Party. Not so great for SF, and both FG and FF seem to have lost some vote share as against 2014. Not great either for the LP (and as has been noted talks of a renaissance were just that – talk). Solidarity/PBP down too. And the GP up a massive 6-7%. Do these figures have implications for the next election? And for the timing of the next election? Anyhow, let’s see if they’re borne out by the counts.

As always anything people want to say – predications, observations, whatever…

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1. Joe - May 25, 2019

Where’s the best place online to get local election counts?

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2. EWI - May 25, 2019

It was clear that a ‘green’ wave of some sorts was evident, with FG/FF etc. trying to seriously play up their green credentials in the past week or two.

Now will the Greens actually do something to advance that agenda, or just waste it on their usual political ineptitude?

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3. Joe - May 25, 2019

Ok. Tally from the Irish Times thread for Cabra Glasnevin. 40% of boxes open. Fitzpatrick FF flying in. Should bring in Lemass with her on these figures. Of course it depends where these boxes are from but from them: Labour will get a seat with Clancy most likely; FG will get a seat with Shovlin; Perry will be back; SF struggling badly, in danger of no seat but again, it depends where these boxes are from.

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4. rockroots - May 25, 2019

Interesting stats on the breakdown of party support in the exit poll. FF voters heavily weighted towards the over-65s, Greens towards first-time voters. Have opinion pollsters been ignoring the younger cohort?

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WorldbyStorm - May 25, 2019

Or mistaking direction of travel of their votes? Lots of people seemed to think they’d go PBP SOL or SD if anywhere particularly on back of referendum s whereas they’re going to another challenge

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5. AdoPerry - May 25, 2019

Cabra Glasnevin final tally – Fitzer FF, Hourican Green reaches quota. Gannon SD, Perry Ind next and SF, Lab,FG favorite for last three. FF transfers are not solid to other candidate.

North inner city – Cuffe, Bourke, Costello are safe with SF next but way down . Rest on a 5-6% split so very tight.

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WorldbyStorm - May 25, 2019

Good to see CP there strongly!

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6. AdoPerry - May 25, 2019

Update- north inner city McAdam FG on nearly 10% so he’ll get in I presume

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Joe - May 25, 2019

Good stuff AdoP. I’m guessing you’re at the count. Keep the updates coming. This is about Cabra Glasnevin and the NIC, all the rest is just fluff 🙂

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WorldbyStorm - May 25, 2019

Ain’t that the truth ! 🙂

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WorldbyStorm - May 25, 2019

Speaking of nic anyone see a Tally I see a mention Burke and Janice B performing strongly

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EWI - May 25, 2019

This is about Cabra Glasnevin and the NIC, all the rest is just fluff 🙂

Centre of the universe, Joe. I’m glad to see Hourigan (?) and Perry in.

How is the Lord Mayor doing, anyone know?

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7. stillradical - May 25, 2019

Some updates: Mixed results for left, Solidarity Cllr Sandra Kavanagh will lose in Castleknock, her colleague Cllr. Eugene Coppinger struggling in Swords – might take last seat, Eilis Ryan (WP) seems to be struggling. On the other side Dean Mulligan (I4C) in Swords has had a great performance finishing 2nd on first preference (tally).

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WorldbyStorm - May 25, 2019

Mulligan has a great leaflet

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gypsybhoy69 - May 25, 2019

If the tally I saw on Twitter is right the Aontu candidate polled higher than the Sinn Fein Councillor for the Castleknock ward. Bad day for the SP and Sinn Fein there, although SF might still make it. I think the Aontu candidate ran for FF last time out.

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8. stillradical - May 25, 2019

Michael O’Brien (Sol) Donaghmede struggling…probably a loss.

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9. stillradical - May 25, 2019

Solidarity seem set to lose both seats in on Cork’s northside.

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WorldbyStorm - May 25, 2019

I’ve long thought the name change from AAA was a significant misstep – of course that’s not the only reason but if one looks at polling there was a dip on foot of it and no wonder aaa was a known quantity – never understood why they didn’t keep it

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Liberius - May 25, 2019

The SP also pops up every now and then in polling (the B&A crosstabs always seem to have a few), probably wouldn’t be bad idea for them to re-establish that identity with the public.

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WorldbyStorm - May 25, 2019

+1 I think that makes sense. It worked for them across a long period of time. Even SP-AAA works.

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oliverbohs - May 25, 2019

Don’t want to undermine your superior political knowledge, but in print SP+AAA looks like something uncouth schoolboys might shout at someone walking past them wearing flares or something

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WorldbyStorm - May 26, 2019

That’s a fair point – AAA-SPs isn’t great either. Perhaps just AAA and leave it at that. Or SP and leave it at that!

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Alibaba - May 25, 2019

The suggestion of Liberius for the Socialist Party name is a good one: ‘probably wouldn’t be bad idea for them to re-establish that identity with the public’. That name always struck me as a good niche market brand.

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gypsybhoy69 - May 25, 2019

For people of a certain Vintage Solidarity (Solidarnosc) is a horrible name.

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10. Dr. Nightdub - May 25, 2019

100% tally for Ballyfermot-Drimnagh has
SF 23%
PBP 13%
FF 15%
GP 13%
Vincent Ballyfermot Jackson 13%

My guess is 1 each SF, PBP & Green, then the last two seats fought over between SF, FF and Jackson.

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11. Tomboktu - May 25, 2019

Tallies for the three Dublin Mid-West LEAs

Clondalkin is a 7-seater. Higgins is FG, Timmons is ind.
Outgoing: Egan, Gilligan, Higgins, Timmons

[For Lucan and Palmerstown-Fonthill, outgoing Gogarty and Nolan stood in both]

Lucan is a 5-seater. Gogarty in ind, Casserly is FG
Outgoing: Casserly, Gogarty, Nolan, O’Brien

Palmerstown-Fonthill is a 5-seater. Ward is SF, Hayes is ind.
Outgoing: Gogarty, Graham, Johannson, Nolan, O’Brien, O’Connell, Ward

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12. Liberius - May 25, 2019

I’d forgotten about Alan Lawes…

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13. Joe - May 25, 2019

So what’s happening? Where is our CLR correspondent in the RDS? Are they counting there or what? When (and where on t’internet?) are we likely to see first count figures?

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Tomboktu - May 25, 2019

My council is counting in Citywest.

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Joe - May 25, 2019

Dublin City Council in the RDS. The culchies in CityWest.

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Joe - May 25, 2019

Here’s the best internet link I’ve found, the Examiner, https://www.irishexaminer.com/maintopics/local-elections-4820.html

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WorldbyStorm - May 25, 2019

Ah cheers, that’s handy

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WorldbyStorm - May 25, 2019

Test

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Joe - May 25, 2019

I’m gonna learn how to use Twitter for the next election. But in the meantime, this is handy too https://twitter.com/DubCityCouncil?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1132347754443943937&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fembed.scribblelive.com%2Fwidgets%2Fembed%2Fpost.aspx%3Fpost-id%3D1166195641.

It says Fitzpatrick FF and Hourigan GP elected on the first count in Cabra Glasnevin.

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Liberius - May 25, 2019

Click the little down icon in the upper right corner of a tweet, then press “copy link to tweet”, then paste that into your comment.

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Joe - May 25, 2019

And from this https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D7cDIdTXoAEIQZ5.jpg, it looks pretty nailed down in the centre of the universe:
1 FF, 1 GP, 1 SocDem Gannon, 1 Ind Perry, 1 SF McGrattan, 1 FG O’Rourke, 1 Lab prob Sherlock.

I can go to bed now so. Oíche mhaith.

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WorldbyStorm - May 25, 2019

Noimead amhain, what about NIC?

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gypsybhoy69 - May 25, 2019

Liked by 2 people

WorldbyStorm - May 25, 2019

Thanks – appreciated gypsybhoy69.

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gypsybhoy69 - May 25, 2019

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Joe - May 26, 2019

Cabra Glasnevin ended 1 FF Fitzpatrick, 1 GP Hourigan, 1 SocDem Gannon, 1 Ind Perry, 1 SF McGrattan, 1 FG O’Rourke and 1 Lab Sherlock.
But Sherlock apparently finished just 6 votes ahead of her LP running mate, Clancy. Clancy has requested and gotten a full recount.

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14. Tomboktu - May 25, 2019

Here you are Joe

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15. Tomboktu - May 25, 2019

Denise McMorrow (of the distinctive posters) eliminated in NIC.

(When I was asked to describe them, the words that came to my head were 1950s San Francisco, though I’ve no idea why that specifically is what I associated them with.)

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WorldbyStorm - May 25, 2019

Yes, there’s an LA Confidential thing going on. They got a lot of attention. I will say this, she was one of only a handful of candidates who came to the door. I imagine she would have expected to have done a lot better. But FF just isn’t getting traction in the constituency.

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16. gypsybhoy69 - May 25, 2019

Denis 🤣

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Tomboktu - May 25, 2019

Ooops

Now corrected!

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17. Tomboktu - May 25, 2019

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18. Tomboktu - May 25, 2019

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Tomboktu - May 25, 2019

“Tufty” 🙂

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19. yourcousin - May 25, 2019

Credit where credit is due, looks like Christy Burke is sporting a Luke Kelly pin. And wearing a Dublin flag, I bet it was from all those years of being a Shinner, the flag waving just never stops 😉.

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20. Tomboktu - May 25, 2019

And another graphic design question for you, WbS. Do you have same of different thoughts on this?

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yourcousin - May 25, 2019

Tomboktu,
Non election related question, how do you embed tweets in the comments?

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Liberius - May 25, 2019

Look upward to my reply to Joe earlier.

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Tomboktu - May 26, 2019

With the address. I’l; screen grab this before clicking “Post comment” so you can see it (when I embed it in an image I can upload here!)

(If you’re using the twitter app, you may need to delete some additional characters at the end of the web address.)

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Tomboktu - May 26, 2019

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WorldbyStorm - May 26, 2019

Agreed re design Tomboktu

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21. Tomboktu - May 25, 2019

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Tomboktu - May 25, 2019

This is a five-seater with seven councillors running (although two are also running in Lucan). Quota is 1,421

I expect SF will lose one of their two seats here – O’Brien would need lots of transfers pull ahead.

It will be interesting to see where Graham’s votes go. He was elected for SF last time on first count. I don’t imagine they will transfer to his FF running “mate” in huge numbers.

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22. Conor Kostick - May 26, 2019

https://independentleft.ie/election-counts-artane-whitehall-and-donaghmede-26-may/

Thoughts on the close of play 26 May at Artane-Whitehall and Donaghmede.

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WorldbyStorm - May 26, 2019

I think high profile left Ind/other candidates particularly ones who did well at the GE are more likely rather than less likely to keep or gain seats? What are your thoughts on it?

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23. Tomboktu - May 26, 2019

I4C councillor loses her seat

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24. WorldbyStorm - May 26, 2019

Brendan Young in Celbridge lost out on seat by 10 votes yesterday. Recount I think. Be v sorry to see him lose the seat he gained at the last elections.

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25. Tomboktu - May 26, 2019

Dublin South West once elected two Labour TDs. Today, the party’s candidate has been eliminated in one of the two LEAs in the heart of that Dáil constituency

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WorldbyStorm - May 26, 2019

I’m more than ever convinced that SF has kind of slid into that LP area of being a smaller but quite big party. And Labour has just slid out of contention.

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ThalmannBrigadier - May 26, 2019

Deserves a thread of itself.

They’ve held in area’s where they’ve been more long established but the gains they’ve made in 2014 have been wiped out. Total meltdown in Kilkenny, Limerick and Offaly to name a few.

TD wise Funchion (Carlow-Kilkenny), Quinlivan (Limerick City) and O’Reilly (Dublin Fingal) and probably goners

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WorldbyStorm - May 26, 2019

They certainly are in a rocky position. O’Reilly though I think might hang on.

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26. nollaigoj - May 26, 2019

From across the Water:
Who or what are 14C?

Liked by 1 person

WorldbyStorm - May 26, 2019
Joe - May 26, 2019

Who or what are 14C?
They are the people who want the Right2Change.

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Tomboktu - May 26, 2019

Who or what are 14C?

They’re asking philosophical questions here, now!

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27. CL - May 26, 2019

Turnout seems to be at around 50 per cent. Probably lower in working class areas, and higher in the more affluent. Pretty dismal but probably higher than in some other countries. Voters appear not to regard the EU parliament and local councils as having much impact on their lives. The European parliament does not have much power, and neither do local Irish councils.

In NI turnout for the EU elections was at 45 per cent.

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28. Tomboktu - May 26, 2019

Ronan McMahon, independent, strongly beat his brother Conor McMahon, Fine Gael, in Rathfarnham-Templeogue

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29. Paddy Healy - May 26, 2019

From Tipp Count

Shock news Sinn féin loose 8 seats in Dublin, lose 18 of 23 seats in Cork City and County, Lose 3 of 4 seats in Limerick. Other lefts also under pressure. Will WUAG here in Tipp be the only left group to increase its vote? This is a wake up call for all the left? What is the explanation? I will have new blog piece on this during the week!

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Paddy Healy - May 26, 2019

Correcting the detail of the SF losses; Cork City 8 seats dowh to 4, Cork County 10 down to 1, Waterford City and County SF lose 3 seats

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WorldbyStorm - May 26, 2019

Very poor result there. I’d love to know your thoughts on it Paddy.

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CL - May 26, 2019

“In Dublin city, Sinn Féin’s share of the vote is down 12 points while in Cork City there is a nine point decline….
This is an across the board decline that can’t be explained by the low turnout alone….
Aontú is registering support of around 5% across in several electoral areas and most of this is coming directly from Sinn Féin….
local elections serve as a relatively accurate barometer of what may happen in a general election….
Already one of the people regarded a key party strategist, Dublin Mid-West TD Eoin Ó Broin, has spoken about reflecting on what went wrong.”
https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/2019/0526/1051776-sinn-fein/

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CL - May 26, 2019

“Richard Boyd Barrett says: “I’ve mixed feelings about our results, but something positive that has come out is the massive appeal of radical change.” However, he expressed concern about the very low turn out in some deprived areas of Dublin. “If people are not coming out to vote, that’s a massive worry for democracy.”
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/vote-2019-howlin-seeks-talks-on-civic-alliance-with-greens-as-counting-continues-1.3904757

“A massive appeal of radical change?”- really?

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30. Paddy Healy - May 26, 2019

Labour Wiped Out in Dublin Euro Election
Dublin Quota 72790 , Seats 4 , A. White (Lab) 18293( 5%), 25% of quota,
Total Valid Poll Dublin 363,950

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31. GW - May 26, 2019

British Labour take only two seats in London. Lib Dems 3, Greens 1. Sadiq Kahn will be spitting bricks.

Emily Thornberry has come out for a referendum in any circumstance.

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WorldbyStorm - May 26, 2019

Islington!!! Sheesh

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32. GW - May 26, 2019

British Labour comes third in Wales for the first time ever, AFAIK.

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33. GW - May 26, 2019

British Labour currently 5th in Scotland. They can’t say they weren’t warned.

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34. GW - May 26, 2019

Berlin results: AfD in single figures. The satirical party Die Partei gets more votes than the neolib FDP.

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35. GW - May 26, 2019

In Brexitania: Tories and Labour currently at 23.1% of the vote.

Wow.

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36. Paddy Healy - May 27, 2019

I don’t often agree with Fionán Sheehan (Irish Independent) but he has just said on RTE: “This talk of a general election by Varadkar is a deliberate distraction from the fact that there was no Leo Leap”
Scapegoating Baileys insurance case is another classic example of Varadkar shifting the blame from himself, Murphy, Harris.etc oldest tricks in the book!!!

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Alibaba - May 27, 2019

Yeah, Paddy, tut-tut, boo hiss.

No mention of Fine Gael’s rotten record on housing etc. etc.

On the plus she will not win the swing seat in the general election.

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37. Paddy Healy - May 27, 2019

The position we discussed earlier is now going to arie in Dublin. Will the papers of the 5 th remaining candidate Probably Lynn Boylan, have to be distributed to see who gets the guaranteed 3 rd seat??

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38. Paddy Healy - May 27, 2019

Please Tell Lynn Boylan and Clare Daly that in Dublin Euro Count, the fifth remaining candidate mus be eliminated and the papers distributed to determine whether the third or 4 th remaining candidate gets the guaranteed 3rd seat. There may never be a 4th seat. I’m sure they already know this. But just in case!!!

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Paddy Healy - May 28, 2019

See My New Comment below. I was right! Count suspended due to Legal argument!

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39. Paddy Healy - May 28, 2019

I Was Right!!
European elections 2019: Legal row erupts as Clare Daly and Barry Andrews in fight for last Seat
Wayne O’Connor, Irish Independent,May 27 2019 11:44 PM
A legal row erupted at the European Election count centre in Dublin tonight as Barry Andrews and Clare Daly battle it out for the last certain seat and to avoid taking the extra ‘cold storage’ seat created by Brexit.
The Green’s Ciarán Cuffe and former Tánaiste Frances Fitzgerald were elected earlier this evening.
However the real drama came late tonight as the final two seats were being decided.
Ms Daly of Independents4Change is fourth in the poll after Mr Andrews of Fianna Fáil and wanted the votes of Sinn Féin’s Lynn Boylan redistributed once she is eliminated.n 2019 – Normally counting stops after all candidates are deemed to be elected.
However, Ms Daly felt Ms Boylan’s redistributed votes could push her from fourth place into third – relegating Fianna Fáil’s Barry Andrews into fourth place.
Fianna Fáil has sought legal counsel on the issue while Ms Daly was in discussions with officials in the RDS count centre.
The fourth MEP seat will only come into play once Britain leaves the EU – potentially some time this summer or as far away as October 31.
(I conveyed advice on the matter to Lynn Boylan and Clare Daly earlier yesterday)

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40. Paddy Healy - May 28, 2019

Someone else is being elected In the UK to the fourth Dublin seat. That UK representative will sit in Brussels and will only vacate the seat if UK actually leaves the European Union. The 4th Dublin seat will come into existence if and only if the UK rep is removed. The correct procedure in the Dublin count would have been to hold a count for the 3 seats that actually exist with appropriate quota. A count for a four seats constituency with appropriate quota could then have been conducted at leisure. They did it the other way around! I and others had pointed out the problem and the solution a month ago!!

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Paddy Healy - May 28, 2019

It appears that FF are saying that the distribution of the papers of the fifth candidate would be unconstitutional as it is a four seat constituency. They may be right. The only solution may be to suspend the 4 seat count and commence ab initio the 3 seat count. The first three in that count must be declared elected. then the 4 seat count can recommence.

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