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Day 3 – European Elections – Count Thread May 27, 2019

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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And so here we are. Local elections more or less done and dusted. The divorce referendum won. And now the European Election results. Two thoughts, as was put to me this morning, the LP chances were clearly massively overstated and more on that this morning, but the SF vote was actually in decline and polls did pick up on this. Interesting too the divergence between GP local and European election first preferences. I’d tend to the view their ‘real’ vote lies closer to the former than the latter and they will want if they are serious to ensure a consolidation of what gains they can make – and that’s before we get to the politics of coalition and so on. As to the rest… for some reason this all reminds me of 2007.

And what of Europe itself?

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1. Fergal - May 27, 2019

I’m struck by how good a local election Fianna Fáil had… come back all is forgiven… shimmers had a poor election and the greens… some great results but what do they stand for?? Anti climate change ? Who isn’t?

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Joe - May 27, 2019

Yep. I’d say FF head office is planning their GE campaign as we speak. FF biggest party after the next GE, I’d say. Whether Varadkar calls an election is not the issue – it’s when FF decide to go for it.

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GW - May 27, 2019

FF/Green govmint anyone? Just in time for the next financial crisis.

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2. Joe - May 27, 2019

Just on Dublin Euro election count.
It’s nailed on 1 Green, 1 FG, 1 FF and Daly isn’t it? Most of the smaller lefts and indos will transfer to Daly ahead of Boylan, no?
Anyone any possible other scenarios?

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irishelectionliterature - May 27, 2019

Looks like it. Andrews too far ahead I’d think to be caught

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3. CL - May 27, 2019

“we still have a huge issue with water quality across the country, we’re still pumping raw sewage into over 40 locations, we’re still seeing the overall quality of pristine water falling across the country…
“We do support the need to pay for water, if there’s wasteful use above a certain amount, it should be paid for. That was always our policy, that you get a basic amount, everyone has a right to water, there is a right to water, but if above an every day living use – then you should pay for that.”-Eamon Ryan
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/elections2019-eamon-ryan-says-there-is-a-huge-issue-with-water-quality-in-ireland-926931.html

“A new climate action plan to be announced by the Government will contain a series of measures aimed at forcing ordinary people to change their habits.
The Government is expected to lay the ground for hiking carbon tax at the next budget – a move they baulked at last October.
This will affect the price of petrol, diesel and home heating oil, as well as other products such as briquettes.”
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/elections-2019/government-will-move-towards-carbon-tax-hike-in-the-next-budget-38151324.html

“Sinn Féin has rejected suggestions of a populist vote grab after its European Parliament candidates came out against carbon tax hikes.”
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/elections-2019/european/sinn-fin-rejects-populism-claim-as-it-opposes-hikes-to-carbon-tax-38109300.html

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4. irishelectionliterature - May 27, 2019

Midlands North West
Looks like exit polls MArgin of error was right…
SO McGuinness, Ming, Carthy and probably Walsh to win seats.
McGuinness (FG) 22.6%
Flanagan (Ind) 14.3%
Carthy (SF) 13.0%
Walsh (FG) 10.8%
Casey (Ind) 9.5%
McHugh (Green) 8.6%
Smith (FF) 7.2%
Rabbitte (FF) 5.1%

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Joe - May 27, 2019

Yep. Maybe that green tide is a bit like that sandy beach in Achill that appears after a storm and then disappears after the next one.

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Daniel Rayner O'Connor - May 27, 2019

Don’t gloat too readily, Joe. For me Maria Walsh is the living breathing answer to the Q. ‘why not a woman/’

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EWI - May 28, 2019

Don’t gloat too readily, Joe. For me Maria Walsh is the living breathing answer to the Q. ‘why not a woman/’

Expect to see as a photogenic cut-out for getting rid of our military neutrality.

On the plus side, she’s likely to quickly get bored and go off to find herself an NGO.

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Daniel Rayner O'Connor - May 28, 2019

I hope your plus side proves true,EW. I have a niggling fear that she is in for the long haul a la Le Pen. Hopefully it will be long enough to end with her screaming defiance at the forces of the Workers’ republic.
Well, we have to be optimistic.

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5. NFB - May 27, 2019

Apparently another recount is being undertaken for Cabra Glasnevin, which is the only Dublin ward yet to finish. Just have to determine which of the Labour candidates, Clancy or Sherlock, gets elected.

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Joe - May 27, 2019

Wow. Tough on both of them. As it happens, I gave Sherlock my number three after two no-hoper ‘ultra lefts’. So she better fix that pothole outside my gaff if she ultimately is deemed elected :).

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WorldbyStorm - May 27, 2019

She’ll be there tomorrow morning Joe!

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6. Paul Culloty - May 27, 2019

Predictable from early this morning, but Alliance ensure two Remain MEPs elected from NI, and indeed, officially returned before Anderson. Kennedy for the UUP had a disaster, well beaten by Allister of the TUV, so real question marks surrounding the UUP going forward.

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7. Tomboktu - May 27, 2019

On RTÉ’s exit polls

and a response

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WorldbyStorm - May 27, 2019

I wonder how robust O’Connor’s complaints are. Would he complain about the tallies? Does he regard them as driving false narratives which confuse the result? The result is the result at the end of the day. We know what it is soon enough. And exit polls come with warnings. I’ve a broader issue with candidates responding to the exit polls as if they are the actual poll results.

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8. Tomboktu - May 27, 2019

Liked by 1 person

9. Tomboktu - May 27, 2019

Trouble at the Dublin count.

In a Dáil election, it doesn’t matter what the order of the last two candidates to be elected are. In this election, it does.

If Boylan’s votes were distributed, they would change the order of the final two candidates and would send Daly to Brussels and leave Andrews on the “subs bench”; do not distribute them and Andrews goes now and Daly sits it out until Brexit.

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10. Tomboktu - May 28, 2019

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