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Those By-Elections June 5, 2019

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.
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It looks as if we may well be faced with four by-elections before the end of the year. That of course is assuming there isn’t a General Election beforehand, which I think there won’t be. Madness to do before the new Brexit Date and then on top of that a Tory leadership contest and the increasing possibility of a No Deal Brexit.
Clare Daly, Frances Fitzgerald , Mick Wallace and Billy Kelleher will all be heading to take up their new roles as MEPs which will mean by-elections in Cork North Central, Dublin Mid West, Wexford and Dublin Fingal. On a good day Fianna Fáil would hope to win three of the four seats on offer, indeed on a very good day could win all four.
In Wexford you’d have to think Malcolm Byrne of Fianna Fáil would be a good bet for a seat. He polled well in the European Elections and ran a commendable campaign. He also topped the poll in the Local Elections in Gorey and FF got 30% of the vote in Wexford in The Local Elections. Fine Gael don’t appear to have any particularly high profile candidate ready to run. Johnny Mythen of Sinn Féin who narrowly missed out on a Dail seat in 2016 by 52 votes lost his seat at the Local Elections. In 2014 and 2019 a number of Mick Wallace endorsed candidates ran at the Local Elections, none were elected. Labour could test the waters too to see how they get on without Brendan Howlin. Most likely an FF win.

Cork North Central is another spot where Fianna Fáil will hope to win.Billy Kelleher polled 28% of the vote in 2016 and they polled well again in the area in the Local Elections. There are a number of potential candidates, Ken O’Flynn, Pádraig O’Sullivan and Tony Fitzgerald are all possibilities. Julie O’Leary who was the FG candidate for the next General Election failed to win a seat in the Locals. Damian Boylan could be the candidate or maybe as it’s a one off you’d wonder would Jerry Buttimer be tempted to cross the Lee and run in a by-election. Sinn Féin already have Jonathan O’Brien in situ as a TD, Thomas Gould would seem a logical choice, although you’d wonder would they be tempted to run Liadh Ní Riada. Solidarity may run Fiona Ryan and The Greens Oliver Moran with new Councillor John Daniel Maher running for Labour. I think it’s FFs seat to lose.

Dublin Fingal- With Clare Daly gone Fianna Fáil Senator Lorraine Clifford-Lee would be a good bet for a seat, Former Minister James Reilly could well be the Fine Gael candidate here. This is one that The Green Party , having formerly had a TD in the area, could target too. Labour did well here in the Local elections and have three Councillors that could vie for the nomination. Solidarity have a few options, Cllr Dean Mulligan (endorsed by Clare Daly) may run and with Sinn Féin already having Louise O’Reilly in the area they may run Cllr Ann Graves. Given the current mood I think this is one The Green Party could win, it would be a first ever By-Election victory for them. Green or FF

Dublin Mid West could be quite the battle. Frances Fitzgerald going may open the door for Emer Higgins to be the FG candidate. There are a few FF possibilities but I don’t see any of Ed O’Brien, Trevor Gilligan or Shane Moynihan winning the seat. Here though is the big call for Sinn Féin. Lynn Boylan lives in the Constituency but her partner Eoin Ó Broin is already a TD for the area, she could do well but they’d hardly run together in a General Election. Elected and then off to Dublin West for the General Election? Paul Gogarty might do well and it could also be a seat that The Greens come into contention should they get enough first preferences to stay on long enough in the race. Anne Marie McNally would probably run for The Social Democrats, Joanna Tuffy for Labour and Madeleine Johansson for PBP. This is probably the most open of the 4 contests with FF,FG, SF and even the SDs and an Independent in with a chance of winning.

Only one of these 4 seats was held by the Government, so one win could be enough for them to survive another little while as we wait for FF to pull the plug. Going to be an interesting few days around the counts.

Comments»

1. Paul H - June 5, 2019

I think that the parties will look for high-profile candidates in the by-elections and hope that name recognition sees a high FPV and attracts transfers across the board.

In Wexford, Verona Murphy from the Irish Road Haulage Association has been selected to run for Fine Gael in the general election so I would not be surprised to see her as the candidate. She has had a high profile as a Brexit commentator and this may help if the by election is held in October / November when Brexit dominates the news again. I would say it would be between her and Malcolm Byrne,

Similarly in Dublin Fingal, Dave Gibney from Unite has been named as Clare Daly’s first substitute in the European Parliament and I would not be surprised to see him run as an Independent 4 Change candidate. Would pick up transfers, in particular from Sinn Fein I imagine, and would challenge Clifford-Lee and James Reilly.

Also in Dublin Mid West, Sinn Fein must be tempted to run Lynn Boylan who would surely have a great chance of a seat. As you say though it does raise the question of what they do if a general election is called soon afterwards. If she moves constituency the voters might not take too kindly. Is there even a safe Sinn Fein seat elsewhere unless Dessie Ellis or Sean Crowe retire. With rumours that Gino Kenny is not standing in the next general for PBP, could Sinn Fein take two here in future?

Liadh for Cork North-Central is interesting but probably a stretch. Could she also risk three loses in quick succession? It’s hard to see her making a breakthrough in west Cork so the Seanad may beckon after the next election

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2. Mccarthyreport - June 6, 2019

On Cork North Central, the Fine Gael candidate is very likely to be Colm Burke, who recently put considerable effort into ensuring Damian Boylan and not Julie O’Leary won the seat in the North West Ward. With Labour, It’s possible that Maher will run, but he was the creature of the Lynch family and Kathleen has already been selected for another run in the general so…

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3. I Tip extensions - July 15, 2019

I Tip extensions

Those By-Elections | The Cedar Lounge Revolution

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