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The weekend poll June 16, 2019

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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From Sunday Times/B&A and they try their luck in giving a snapshot of opinion amongst the electorate. How close it is to the reality is anyone’s guess.

FF 28% NC

FG 23% -5

IND/OTHERS 13% +4

SF 12% -7

GP 11% +6

LP 5% +1

IND ALL 3% NC

SOL-PBP 2% -1

SD 1% NC

RENUA 1% +1

AONTU 1% +1

Curious who is gaining and who is losing in the post-election period. Is the SF drop an artefact of a different weighting given to them since the seeming over-polling for them prior to the elections? Or is part of it a function of the relentless political and media messages that SF is losing support? And similarly with the GP. That’d be some day if they got close to 11% but how robust is this and how much an after-effect of the elections?

It’s all pretty chaotic, isn’t it? And the MOE – 3.3%.

Still, that five point FF lead may convince some in the latter party it’s time to go. But how to do so without being seen to do so, as it were? Public sentiment doesn’t appear hugely enthusiastic for an election and probably not at all after the local and European contests? Could be an interesting summer.

Comments»

1. Alastair McKinstry - June 16, 2019

The 11% for the Greens is consistent with the local/euro election – the percentage they got where people were able to vote for them (they ran in a fraction of the LEAs).

For Renua, when do the companies stop polling ? it no longer has any public representatives. Do they add all registered parties (shudder, irexit) to the list ?

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WorldbyStorm - June 16, 2019

That’s a great question. There’s got to be a cut off point doesn’t there?

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WorldbyStorm - June 16, 2019

Which reminds me, if I recall correctly Tony Gregory used to have a real problem with polling companies not showing INds as a specific category in polls as distinct from Ind/others.

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2. Paddy Healy - June 16, 2019

B&A Raw Poll June 20, 2019
June 20 2019 All RAW % (including undecided)
FG 17(-4) FF 22(+1) SF 10(-7) Lab 3 (-1) Others(incl.GN) 25 (+10) Undecided 23(+1) https://wp.me/pKzXa-jh
May 19 B&A Raw Poll
FF 21 FG 21 SF 17 Lab 4 GN/Others 15 Undecided 22
All the indications are that, since May Poll) FG lost to Greens and Sinn Féin to OTHERS

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WorldbyStorm - June 16, 2019

Interesting re the SF vote going to Others.

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3. Paddy Healy - June 16, 2019

B&A Poll including Undecided FG 17  FF 22    SF 10   Lab 3  Others(incl.GN) 25  Undecided   23
Eliminating Undecideds from June Poll
FG   22   FF 29   SF  13  Lab  4   Oth( incl GN)  32  https://wp.me/pKzXa-jh

After Processing by B&A  (moving figures towards those achieved in General Election2016)

The final outcome given by B&A

FG 23% -5   FF 28% NC  SF 12% -7  LP 5% +1  (others incl GN) 32

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4. Paddy Healy - June 16, 2019

This poll combined with Local Election resutlts show that the rise of the greens is not the cause of the decline of SF and Sol/PBPA in the local elections

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Jolly Red Giant - June 16, 2019

No sh*t sherlock

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ThalmannBrigadier - June 16, 2019

Do you kiss your mother with that mouth?

Get a grip and be civil.

Liked by 1 person

Jolly Red Giant - June 17, 2019

My mother died nearly 50 years ago – and anyone involved in the election campaign didn’t need an opinion poll to tell them that the GP vote came from the more affluent areas and there was a major drop in turnout in working class areas (and those that did vote tended to vote for ‘local’/’community’ candidates).

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ThalmannBrigadier - June 17, 2019

Its an expression 🙄

That doesn’t warrant sheer rudeness though, which seems to be a common trait amongst members of your party.

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Jolly Red Giant - June 17, 2019

I wasn’t being rude – I was stating the blindingly obvious. Paddy draws conclusions from polling data – and sometimes not the correct conclusions. I draw my conclusions from my interactions with working class people and my understanding of Marxism.

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WorldbyStorm - June 17, 2019

And sometimes not the correct conclusions! ;). Only kidding JRG, though Paddy might take offence at the idea that his interactions with working class people or his understanding of Marxism might be lesser than your own. Actually a lot of people might feel that way now I think about it.

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5. Paddy Healy - June 16, 2019

VERY VERY IMPORTANT OPINION PIECE!!! Public Finances Policy is Drifting into a Storm Eddie Casey, Chief Economist at Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, Sunday Business Post, Jun 16, 2019 https://wp.me/pKzXa-uaKey Points:;;“That is not to say that the government has its hands tied. If it wants to do more (spending and investment), then it should simply fund these in a sustainable way. This could be done by introducing other measures to raise revenues.”..Fast forward to 2018 and the government instead found itself with double the corporation tax receipts it expected (€10 billion) and a far lower annual interest bill (€5 billion)…Despite these tailwinds — a yearly boost of almost €9 billion — it still fell short of its targeted budget surplus for 2018 by half a billion. How this happened should not be a surprise to anyone who has witnessed Irish budgetary policy as practised.”When it comes to budget plans, the government seems happy to simply stay afloat when it should be taking advantage of favourable winds ahead of turbulent times

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