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How long might government headed by a new Tory leader last? June 25, 2019

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

Possibly not very long at all to judge from this analysis on politicshome.com

As it notes the latest problem is the suspension of Mark Field after last week and various others in trouble. And already the Tories with DUP support (10 MPs) have a majority of a mere 4. But… with by-elections and other problems facing them as it stands that could b whittled away to near parity with all others in the opposition.

And then there’s this dynamic which post-dates the departure of some Tories to the hapless Change UK crew:

One minister said she would leave the party if Mr Johnson and his supporters, such as Jacob Rees-Mogg, took over the Conservatives.
Another minister said he knew of five or six Conservatives who were openly saying they were so opposed to a Johnson premiership that they could not stay in the party run by him and a group of “Brexit ultras”.

Then there’s this from last night in the Guardian:

Conservatives stepped up warnings on Monday that a Boris Johnson premiership could lead to the collapse of the government if the leadership frontrunner attempts to pursue no deal.

One former Tory minister said he believed there were many more Tory MPs who would be prepared to take that step than those who would publicly admit it. “I do think at least 10 would vote to bring down the government if the government was taking us into no deal,” the MP said.

Granted that’s just words, and Johnson has been careful to try to appear to be appealing to all strands of opinion within the Tories. But it indicates even more clearly just how knife-edge all this is.

And for yet more evidence of that what about the latest polls which continue to show the Brexit party on or about 20-23% or so and the Tories either level pegging with the BLP or quite some way behind.

And for the shape of a parliament on those sort of figures look no further than here.

How Johnson, indeed any new leader, steadies the boat escapes me – even if he ‘delivers’ Brexit the UK political system appears wide open. Though the situation for Labour would hardly be much better given the difficultly in sustaining a government 88 seats or so short of a majority and the implausibility of coalition with either LDs or SNP (and neither of those would bridge the gap). Of course one has to keep in mind that the Tories will likely get a bounce with a new leader, but… the issues remain, new leader or not, and the same old contradictions remain too.

By the way, for those who thought the 2017 election demonstrated the primacy of economic and other issues, that may represent a false dawn. The last year or so has shown Brexit tumbling through the political landscape wreaking havoc all around. Perhaps that was an inevitability as it worked slowly but surely as so much political activity came to be defined by the issue. Then again how could it be otherwise?


1. Alibaba - June 25, 2019

This strikes me as a Tory turkey leader looking forward to Christmas.


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