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The ROI’s national interest… August 15, 2019

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

A most interesting comment on the Irish Times website the other day. I’ve bolded up the part that most caught my eye.

0xB0D. 1 hour ago
Odd reading through the comments section here.
It seems obvious to me that a border poll is now an eventuality, if there is no deal, it is assured within a five year window.

The only question would be 1) timing and 2) result.
I would expect it wouldn’t pass, at least not on the first shout.

The simple reality is, Brexit has shown the hard-line, no-compromise unionism of the DUP/TUV to be hopelessly out of step with soft-nationalist, non-aligned and liberal minded unionists.

THAT is the battle ground upon which any UI will be fought and make no mistake, the harder the Brexit, the more unavoidable the question becomes.

Brexit aborted ? Forget about it.
Token Brexit? Again forget about it.
Differentiated Brexit in NI ? The the NI question will pivot on Scotland.
No deal ? Let’s get real, in a no deal situation it becomes in the Republic’s national interest, despite the costs and the security implications, to erase the border.

Ultimately it is up to us, in the Republic. Do we really want to take the North on ? In everything but a no-deal situation the answer is probably No. If there’s a No deal ?

A border poll actually becomes a solution to a real problem and make no mistake, the British want rid of NI.

My own crystal ball says, no deal is probably still avoided somehow and that Scotland, not NI is the battle ground for the UK union in the next 3-5 years.

If the Scots secede, then even after a soft or no Brexit, then a UI becomes ‘a thing’ again.

The simple fact is, Brexit is a huge bomb under the legitimacy of the UK union, the wisdom of Westminister to rule and any pretense the “Celtic fringe” has to a stake in that union.

Forget the stuff about the cost of unity (of whatever form), or the supposed distinctions between the two parts of the island. From the point of view of national interest it makes no sense for NI to be separate (de facto as distinct from whatever cosmetic arrangements are made to entertain legitimate or otherwise unionist fears) from the rest of the island.


1. tafkaGW - August 15, 2019

I’ve always thought the chances of no-deal were underestimated and have been saying so for over a year.

Now I’d put them at 55%+. If that happens then UI along with independence for Scotland may be very much on the agenda.

And the RoI may have to bite the bullet much earlier most of us had expected.

Among the remaining 45% I put the not negligible possibility that Al Johnson stabs the DUP in the back and goes for an NI-only backstop with some tweaks that the political declaration. The EU has already offered a NI-only backstop, so would be happy enough.

Then an election on a ‘look we delivered Brexit’ +nationalism +racism +anti-immigration +colonial_nostalgia +Britain_unchained etc.. basis. Which might go down rather well.


WorldbyStorm - August 15, 2019

It does feel like Johnson intends something like that which of course is also destabilizing to unionism – but Johnson would I agree likely win


tafkaGW - August 15, 2019

Something that speaks to the possibility of NI-only backstop is the refusal of the US Congress to pass any trade deal with dUK that threatens the GFA.

But who knows what’s going through the Mekon’s bulging green brain and that of his posh-boy boss, apart from self-regard.


CL - August 15, 2019

“Germany’s government expects Britain to crash out of the European Union on Oct. 31 without a deal in place on their future relations, the Handelsblatt business daily reported on Thursday, citing a finance ministry document.”

“The government headed by a man who once said “fuck business” really intends to “fuck” not only business, but democracy and civil society too.”

“Rebel Conservative MPs have agreed to meet Jeremy Corbyn to discuss how to stop Boris Johnson pursuing a no-deal Brexit, without committing to backing him as a caretaker leader.”


tafkaGW - August 15, 2019

Well spotted CL.

Yes, the Finance ministry papers says that even if the backstop were to be given up (which it says should on no account happen) it expects Al de Pfeffel Johnson would probably not be able to get a deal through the dUK parliament.

There are 50ish laws waiting in the wings to be passed through the German government in the event of a no-deal Brexit, to deal with domestic and EU economic and procedural adjustments.

That’s if there’s still an intact German coalition by the end of October. Actually the laws would probably go through the interim parliament in the event of elections anyhow.


2. John Goodwillie - August 15, 2019

I think it’s a little blasé to write “it makes no sense for NI to be separate (de facto as distinct from whatever cosmetic arrangements are made to entertain legitimate or otherwise unionist fears) from the rest of the island.” Any developments along these lines would have to be not merely cosmetic. Ideas such as the maintenance of a power-sharing Northern Ireland would have to be involved (with constitutional guarantees and arrangements to avoid boycotts like the present one).


WorldbyStorm - August 15, 2019

Well I think that’s a fair point you make actually. But I guess I mean functionally the two parts will have to act mostly as one whatever the arrangements made to keep unionism on board.


3. CL - August 18, 2019

The case for a border poll is clear:

“A recent survey indicates “55 percent of respondents [in Northern Ireland] would certainly or probably support a United Ireland in the event that the UK left without a deal,”


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