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Bleak August 20, 2019

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Bleak indeed the leaked UK government papers this weekend published in the Sunday Times on a no-deal Brexit. It paints a picture of…

…a three-month meltdown at its ports, a hard Irish border and shortages of food and medicine if it leaves the EU without a deal, according to government documents on Operation Yellowhammer.

And the response on this island has been measured, effectively saying that none of this comes as a significant surprise, and in truth is what many in Irish politics have been warning of for years now.

No doubt some or much of that is an accurate forecast, but EUreferendum does ask a key point… who leaked it and why? EUR suggests that they may be leaked in order that if initial outcomes are less worse they strengthen Johnson’s hand going into an immediate election since they can be dismissed as ‘project Fear’. That said he also notes that the report is hazy on food shortages, arguing both that they may occur or that they may not or that panic buying may occur on foot of fears. Which of course as he notes would trigger scarcities.

Not a very positive environment for Johnson to go to the UK in an election. So, quite a gamble faces him ahead.

Comments»

1. John Goodwillie - August 20, 2019

What is remarkable is that the document was widely dismissed as a worst-case scenario. But the Sunday Times report quotes specifically a Cabinet Office Source: “This is not Project Fear – this is the most realistic assessment of what the public face with no-deal. These are likely, basic, reasonable scenarios, not the worst-case scenario.”

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WorldbyStorm - August 20, 2019

That’s very true John.

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Alibaba - August 20, 2019

As you say John, it is remarkable. Now Tory barefaced liars comes to mind whereas previously I was focussed on the name of the report – Yellowhammer !?!

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Michael Carley - August 20, 2019

“A little bit of bread and no cheese.”

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Alibaba - August 20, 2019
2. tafkaGW - August 20, 2019

Leave it till the middle of September to see whether the con-man is bluffing. Or whether the dUK HOC can block him.

I confess to a certain (entirely irresponsible for anyone interested in the interest of the working classes of Europe or the peace in Ireland) curiosity about what would actually happen in the event of crash out.

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Lamentreat - August 21, 2019

Irresponsible I don’t know, haha, its almost impossible not to be curious about some kind of convulsive outcome, and even to imagine it. The historical shifts are coming so quick and fast now. They are interesting times to watch, if difficult to live through.

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tafkaGW - August 21, 2019

Exactly. And I have a similar guilty curiosity about the feedback-mechanisms that are heating the planet exponentially and a perverse desire to live long enough to see them work out.

Of course it’s terrifying and will lead to many millions of deaths and drastic suffering for many millions more, but it has the dubious virtue of not looking anything like ‘the end of history’. Remember that?

The most convincing argument I’ve heard for Joe Biden as democratic candidate in the US (I don’t buy it BTW but you never know) is that he would be the ‘please make it stop I can’t deal with it any more!’ voter’s choice.

No going back however, much of what is happening is irreversible.

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3. CL - August 20, 2019

“Northern Ireland is now seen as totemic for the UK’s Brexit project….The backstop has come to represent all that British Eurosceptics dislike and distrust about the EU: infringement of sovereignty, democratic deficit, “competence creep” At the same time, it embodies what Irish politicians have long lauded the EU for: protection for small states, enabling trade, defusing the symbolic and practical significance of borders…..
So once again, as in 1690, English and European governments are shaping up to use the island of Ireland as an ideological battleground
And possibly, as in 1690, apart from occasional forays, they will leave the locals to live with the consequences for generations to come.”-Katy Hayward.
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/northern-ireland-has-become-emblematic-of-the-uk-s-brexit-project-1.3990968

“European Council President Donald Tusk on Tuesday rebuffed an attempt to reopen Brexit negotiations from Boris Johnson, saying a letter from the new British prime minister included no “realistic alternatives” to the Irish backstop”
https://www.euronews.com/2019/08/19/johnson-to-eu-let-s-replace-irish-backstop-with-alternative-brexit-pledge

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CL - August 20, 2019

Furthermore,..

.”In a note circulated to diplomats from the EU27, officials describe points made by Mr Johnson in his letter as “misleading” and “incorrect”….
“The letter’s suggestion that two separate legal, political, economic, and monetary jurisdictions already exist on the island and can be managed with an open border is misleading.

“EU law provides the common framework needed to enable frictionless trade between Member States today. Without this common framework, checks and controls become necessary to protect consumers’ health, the integrity of the Single Market and Ireland’s place in it.”
https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0820/1069829-brexit/

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4. Alibaba - August 20, 2019

Boris Johnson is a consummate liar. Now we are told backstop was “anti-democratic and inconsistent with the sovereignty of the UK as a state”. Anything could happen. In fact, it did (and could happen again in the future). Johnson voted for the backstop in Theresa May’s third bill.

https://www.thejournal.ie/boris-johnson-brexit-letter-4773857-Aug2019/

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5. Roger Cole - August 20, 2019

Johnson is just another Oxford thug, hopefully the last of such thugs that look after their class interests and seek always to smash Ireland while they are at it. In the centuries we have fought for our national independence we have sought help against the British Imperial state from Spain, France and Germany. This time we have all three and the BIS is not what used to be. The US appoints its Ambassadors, it had to release the Iranian ship it had stole in an act of piracy, it is finding it difficult to get people to join its Army, Scotland wants to leave the BU, their £ is falling in value and their only ally is mad dog Trump.
Sure won’t your heart bleed for thugs.

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benmadigan - August 20, 2019

we’ve all read about the mitigation strategies, EU Notices to Stakeholders etc.

Has anyone any idea of how the EU and Ireland will really counteract a No Deal Brexit and the break-up of the GFA?

In other words, with the havoc it is wreaking, will the UK get off scot-free of any consequences (apart from inevitable ensuing shortages in food, vegetables, medicines, loss of jobs, drop in £ etc )

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tafkaGW - August 21, 2019

No – and I’m not sure that the RoI and the EU do have a clear political plan, apart from some purely technocratic measures. And I’m not convinced the RoI has addressed transport with the rest of the EU convincingly, let alone what might happen on the border. They certainly are vulnerable in terms of data communications.

Why they didn’t invest in more undersea fibre bypassing the UK after 2016 is something I don’t understand. Or I do because they are neo-lib true believers and the ‘market’ was supposed to provide. It didn’t.

I think ‘mainland’ EU is better prepared but they are in a better geographical and logistical position.

But politically it’s just too unpredictable.

I guess it depends who’s in government in the UK, assuming they get to elections.

If it’s more of Boris then probably letting them stew for a year while providing humanitarian aid if necessary may be necessary to bring them back to the table.

If it’s (here’s hoping) a government led by Labour, there may be a chance to negotiate a Norway-style arrangement quite quickly.

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EWI - August 21, 2019

Why they didn’t invest in more undersea fibre bypassing the UK after 2016 is something I don’t understand. Or I do because they are neo-lib true believers and the ‘market’ was supposed to provide. It didn’t.

Or because, as with the US, the cost of doing business is letting the state (UK in this case) tap into everything you own.

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Daniel Rayner O'Connor - August 20, 2019

Comparing de Pelesti to a thug is unfair to Thugs. They were highly principled men who strangled travellers for the greater glory of the goddess Kali. they would never abandon their sacred duty for earthly ambition.

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tafkaGW - August 21, 2019

Absolutely. The al-Ḥaššāšīn get a bad rep as well.

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tafkaGW - August 21, 2019

Come to think of the ‘The’ is a bit redundant there.

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Daniel Rayner O'Connor - August 21, 2019

The Al-hassassin simile is more suitable than the thug one. Like the Old Man of the Mountains, the Middle-aged Man of Downing Street influences his followers thru’ dope.

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Joe - August 21, 2019

What about our own poor tóraithe? Forever smeared and shamed by the appropriation of their noble name by the preferred party of the English robber ruling class.

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