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It’s a process, not an event… unfortunately. August 23, 2019

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

Thought Ellie Mae O’Hagan’s piece in the Guardian this week was particularly good. In it she took to task those in the UK arguing that there will be immediate social and economic collapse in the UK when that state(s) leaves the EU.

It’s quite possible the government will throw money at a no-deal scenario to keep disruption as minimal and temporary as possible. If the apocalyptic scenarios for no deal aren’t felt from 1 November onwards, what will happen to the credibility of those predicting them?


Those opposing no deal must stop focusing so heavily on the prospect of immediate disaster, and start talking more about what the UK might look like in five or 10 years’ time, after the asset stripping of British industry has taken place.
The reasons for the leave vote are complex and multifaceted, but it was seen by some as offering a solution for the many people in the UK who had experienced a decade of economic hardship since the 2008 financial crisis. The remain campaign eschewed responding to that issue in favour of trying to frighten the public into staying in the EU. It’s now time for the opponents of no deal to learn from the remain campaign’s mistake. If they don’t, the architects of a broken and divided nation may well get away with it again.

And she points to the enormous numbers of workers whose jobs will be in some jeopardy in the event of a no-deal Brexit. But those jobs are unlikely to go immediately. And she quotes:

Unite acknowledges short-term disruption to food imports and so on, but its key message could not be clearer: “The consequences for working-class communities across the country will be devastating and long lasting.” For all the government’s rhetoric about working people and “the left behinds”, what does it really have to say about these risks?

Nothing, is the answer.

She notes too that the official remain campaign ‘released a bulletin of what it imagined the news headlines to be the next day in the event of a leave vote. Job losses would ensue, it said; prices would rise, the pound would plummet, and the UK would be stuck in a protracted negotiation process for the next decade. (Tellingly, the issue of the Irish border wasn’t mentioned.)’

Her last point there is important – albeit she doesn’t follow it through in the actual article. While the outcomes in the first hours, days and weeks of Brexit will no doubt be negative, they will presumably not be existentially so. But, all that said, what of this island? There the answer is we simply do not know for certain. So small wonder there is greater trepidation here than in Britain.


1. tafkaGW - August 23, 2019


Sure focus on the longer term, but I think O’Hagan suffers from a left version of UK sovereignty over-estimation, so common in the dUK. Much of the measures that would alleviate the immediate effects of a no-deal Brexit are not in the power of the dUK.

The power to ameliorate lies with the EU and the countries within in it. Who the dUK would have just told to ‘fuck off and we won’t pay our contracted commitments’. Do you think they will be exerting themselves on behalf of the dUK or their own citizens?

However it will work for well for the it’s “all the EU’s fault because we chose to leave and they wouldn’t give us all the benefits of membership without any of the costs and responsibilities” message. I tell you, I wouldn’t want to be an obviously foreign-sounding EU citizen in the dUK after a crash-out Brexit.

In the RoI things will get politically interesting. Only massive government intervention will cushion the effects on the country. With the tax income that implies. And will Varadkar and his merry bunch neo-libs do that? There’s an opportunity there for the left in the RoI, but given the drowning-out effect of Brexshit, will they make themselves heard?

And I can’t resist:

“Unite acknowledges short-term disruption to food imports and so on, but its key message could not be clearer: “The consequences for working-class communities across the country will be devastating and long lasting.”

And yet the leader of that trades union is effectively working with the Farageists for the actually available version of Brexit: i.e. the no-deal one.


2. Roger Cole - August 23, 2019

The Unite Union has been a strong supporter of Corbyn for some time now. Corbyn is leading the opposition to a no deal Brexit.

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