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More resignations to come? September 9, 2019

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

A meeting in Dublin today, but nothing of any substance expected to come out of it, not least given that bilateral negotiations between Dublin and London are a non-starter.

Meanwhile could Rudd be only the second of many? The Observer/Guardian appeared to think so last night.

Rudd’s resignation on Saturday evening sparked fears of a domino effect, with other Tory moderates following suit.

Since tendering her resignation, Rudd has been approached by three cabinet ministers and nine junior ministers who have expressed concern about the direction of the government, a friend said, adding that she would not be at all surprised if there were more resignations

RTÉ has also led with this news:

[Johnson’s] stance has led to fears that more front bench ministers could walk out on the government.

Perhaps this is far-fetched but the thought strikes is this part of a strategy to undermine Johnson? Hardly a surprise given the ERG used that approach in relation to May.

Meanwhile what of polls?

The variability is genuinely astounding as noted by Dermot and TAFKA in comments today. YouGov/Sunday Times has Conservatives on 35%, Labour on 21%. Deltapoll and Panelbase have Conservatives on 31% and Labour on 28%. Opinium and the Observer have Tories on 35% and Labour on 25%. And so on. All polls have the Tories ahead, but the lead is between 3% and 14%. How does all this play into the events of the next week or two?


1. dermot - September 9, 2019

For a while there all the polls had herded nicely. Now they’re forked again! Back to where we were in 2017 looks like.

Latest internal tory poll analysis shows they’ll only win 287 seats, less than may.

So that 10% lead (as I was wondering) on ~30% is not the same as a 10% lead on ~40%. FPTP makes it very dodgy. As Craig Murray was hoping, the tories may be in a very scary terrain, where much of their new support is geographically stranded – in areas where they can’t win seats. Also, they’re actively alienating their core voters, the kind of people who happen to like KEN CLARKE and WINSTON’S GRANDSON. So kick away your core, and go for the newbies on a single issue – and do this over the course of 3 months. This is high risk stuff to put it mildly.

I can still see a scenario where (god help us) BJ wins a bloody majority (that’ll be a long five years); but I can also see one where tories come back lower than in 1997. An end to the anti-Corbyn ‘friendly fire’ from the usual suspects in the Guardian/Indo/BBC would be a good start…but I guess a nationalised railway service is too much an appalling prospect for some.


baalthor - September 9, 2019
WorldbyStorm - September 9, 2019

Hahah, brilliant. Ah Polly Toynbee. What can one say. Good hearted. Terrible terrible political acumen.


tafkaGW - September 10, 2019

You need to consider the possibility that this private poll was disinformation designed to tempt the BLP into an early election. The timing and ‘privacy’ of the poll is suspicious.


dermot - September 10, 2019

Yes, but it mirrored the previous HuffPO constituency poll that week which showed tories losing 6 seats.


2. dermot - September 9, 2019

Mark Prisk MP (remainer) standing down at next GE.
safe set, Labour in second in 2017



WorldbyStorm - September 9, 2019

It’s a rout of one nation conservatives.


3. tafkaGW - September 10, 2019

Continuing my Cassandric role, the Tories/BXP now have a clear run at a long general election campaign with most of the press on their sides and no election rules about fair presentation.

If ever there was a time for smart face-to-face and social industry campaigning it is now.


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