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Worst case scenarios… September 12, 2019

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Well, finally the British government released – under pressure from Parliament this week, its no-deal Brexit projections. They’re neither new, for those following these matters, or pretty (and here is the full document):

A no-deal Brexit would trigger major hold-ups at channel ports, significant electricity price increases, shortages of some foods and delays to medicine imports in Britain, documents published by the British government show.

HGV delays of between one-and-a-half and two-and-a-half days would occur at Dover and public disorder could increase, according to Operation Yellowhammer “reasonable worst case planning assumptions” released in response to MPs voting for it to happen.

It does strongly suggest a breakdown in public order in the UK itself – and ‘a rise in community tensions’. Think about that for a moment. All too predictably it notes that those who are on lower incomes will be hit hardest by price rises in fuel and foods.

Those travelling may face delays at places like Dover and St. Pancras (for the Channel Tunnel) so severe they may seek alternative arrangements.

On food, it warns that some fresh supplies will decrease and that “critical dependencies for the food chain” such as key ingredients “may be in shorter supply”.

It says these factors would not lead to overall food shortages “but will reduce the availability and choice of products and will increase price, which could impact vulnerable groups”.

There may not be food shortages as such, but one can easily imagine panic buying leading to similar outcomes.

And the north of Ireland?

…the automatic application of EU tariffs and regulatory requirements on goods crossing the Border from Northern Ireland will severely disrupt trade.

“The expectation is some businesses will stop trade or relocate to avoid paying the tariff, which will make them uncompetitive or to avoid the risk of trading illegally, while others will continue to trade, but experience higher costs which may be passed on to consumers.
“The agri-food sector will be the hardest hit, given its reliance on highly integrated cross-border supply chains and high tariffs and non-tariff barriers,” it says.

All of which will lead to job losses, ‘economic disruption’, road blockages, civil disobedience and smuggling.

And even this isn’t the complete document, with one paragraph redacted.

Comments»

1. benmadigan - September 12, 2019

here’s what appears to be the complete document, as leaked to the Times early last August together with some thoughts https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2019/08/26/faq-mr-no-deal-warning-ireland-and-scotland/

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