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An end of Summer poll September 14, 2019

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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The Dáil returns this coming week, so no better time for RedC/SBP to offer us this news fresh after the Dublin/Kerry game:

FG 29% +1

FF 28% +4

IND 13% -1

SF 12% -1

GP 7% NC

LP 6% +1

IND ALL 3% +1

SD 1% -1

SOL-PBP 1% -1

What to make of it? That GP surge is a bit more tenacious than might have been expected. No one else is going to be very happy, though FG might be pleased they’re a whisker ahead of FF and Independents may be glad simply to have what they hold more or less.

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1. Paul Culloty - September 14, 2019

Don’t mention the war!

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WorldbyStorm - September 14, 2019

🙂

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2. Paul Culloty - September 14, 2019

On a more serious note, you do have to wonder at what point the SD’s existence as a separate party comes into question – granted, they did reasonably well in the locals (particularly in Dublin), but if they wind up with just Murphy and Shortall returned again, they would struggle to remain either relevant or viable.

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WorldbyStorm - September 14, 2019

And to follow on from that where could they get TDs – if the GP vote holds up they could poach seats that they hoped for and from the further left parties

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3. Dermot M O Connor - September 14, 2019

Labour’s misery never ends! Still under their 2016 GE 6.6%. Hope the Irish Water debacle was worth the pain.

Lab’s main role still looks like getting eliminated early, and providing transfers to help a Greens/SDs or some other protest vote candidate win a final seat or two. And with Penrose retiring, down one fiefdom. I’d read speculation somewhere that Burton might call it quits but can’t find any news stories on that. She’ll be 71 at time of GE, can’t be fun at that age with another decade+ on the backbenches beckoning…unless they want to be a FG mudguard again.
Oh Christ, they will, of course they will – if they get 5 or 6! PDs did it on half dozen seats. 2 ministries. Add some greens, voila! It’s not as if sitting it out did them any good.

Wonder when this poll was taken? Imagine it’s done Varadkar no harm to be seen looking statesmanlike next to The Oaf from #10 or the Creature from Kia-Ora. Note that his May election will put him ahead of Bruton, Cowen and Reynolds in time served as Taoiseach, not that that’s a factor in his calculus, at all at all.

SOL-PBP might want to avoid the absurd 2016, where they each ran joint candidates in some constituencies. That kind of strategic brilliance will be even less effective on these numbers. Wake up, hold yer noses, and form a bloody transfer pact. 1% FFS.

In any case, the next govt. looks increasingly likely to inherit the wind, so this might be one of those governments to sit out. The first will be last and the last will be first.

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PaddyM - September 14, 2019

I was polled on this one last Friday (5th).

The list of options given (when asked for) was FF (listed first)/FG/SF/Green/Lab/Ind/Ind All (listed separately)/SocDem/Renua/Workers’ Party/”Solidarity”. I’m pretty sure neither PBP or Aontú weren’t explicitly mentioned.

I would imagine that FF, who have tended to be understated by RedC in particular, would be quite satisfied with that poll.

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