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The wisdom of this crowd: That UK Supreme Court ruling today September 24, 2019

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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So, given this:

The UK’s highest court will give its historic ruling today over the legality of the five-week suspension of parliament.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has been accused of an unlawful “abuse of power”, will be in the United States when the Supreme Court announces its findings, following an unprecedented hearing last week.

Eleven justices have been asked to determine whether his advice to Queen Elizabeth to prorogue parliament, for what opponents describe as an “exceptionally long” period, was unlawful.

Any predictions of the verdict?

And what of outcomes?

Comments»

1. benmadigan - September 24, 2019

something about outcomes in here among the other repercussions of the Brexit Curse on the UK https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2019/09/22/q-and-a-brexits-curse/

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2. NFB - September 24, 2019

Seems like wishful thinking to me that the court will give BoJo a smack. It’s been hyped up enough now that the court declaring the advice legal will be seen as a major victory for his wing of the Tory party, and a humiliation for everyone else. Hope I’m wrong.

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NFB - September 24, 2019

Shows how much I know. But what practical consequence will there be? Johnson and his ilk seem so shameless.

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3. EWI - September 24, 2019

Some novel new interpretation of the law to let the Tories have their way. ‘Common law’ indeed (goes for all countries with that system)

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4. CL - September 24, 2019

A unanimous decision, 11-0; “parliament has not been prorogued”, Johnson’s decision was unlawful.

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WorldbyStorm - September 24, 2019

Okay – that’s definitive – now what happens next? This is going to be very tricky

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Dermot M O Connor - September 24, 2019
CL - September 24, 2019

Bercow says Commons must “convene without delay”

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WorldbyStorm - September 24, 2019

OK, that’s what happens next! 🙂

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CL - September 24, 2019

Farage calls on Cummings to resign

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WorldbyStorm - September 24, 2019

Now that I did not see coming!

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tafkaGW - September 24, 2019

The two are sworn enemies.

I think this makes it likelier that the Tories will try and explicit Brexit Party alliance.

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5. nollaigoj - September 24, 2019

Ouch!
As I was about to predict ” Not a matter for the courts” the TV announced the breaking news!

The revenge of the deep state?!

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WorldbyStorm - September 24, 2019

If it’s as inefficient as the visible state – unlikely. 🙂

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6. NFB - September 24, 2019

I do believe the Queen could dismiss Johnson from his post, though the power hasn’t been used in nearly 200 years. But, considering he appears to have “misled” her…

When she stays well out of it, just another reason why the British monarchy is a fundamentally useless institution.

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WorldbyStorm - September 24, 2019

Yep, another useless holdover from the past in the British polity

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CL - September 24, 2019

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7. tafkaGW - September 24, 2019

Interesting. Slightly.

The UK make-it-up-as-you-go-along non-constitution has changed. Now the executive has something else it can’t do autonomously. The other two were declaring war and signing an international treaty.

But it doesn’t resolve anything, if anything is resolveable.

I guess the chances of a no-deal exit have reduced, possibly. Who knows.

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Joe - September 24, 2019

And the chances of a general election soon have increased?

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Daniel Rayner O'Connor - September 24, 2019

In bojology, the logical thing for Blondie to do is get the Queen to call a general election on the platform ‘the people v.the judges.’
When the going gets tough, the Tough gets going.

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Joe - September 24, 2019

Yep. Fair point. Bojo says he wants an election as soon as but it’s Jez and the parliament that’s stopping him. So presumably Jez will continue to frustrate him with a view to what?, embarrassing Bojo by making him ask the EU for another extension? And then having an election?

Whatever, I look forward to the election campaign during which the republican? social democrat Jez slates the arch Tory Bojo for ‘lying to her glorious Majesty’.

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Dermot M O Connor - September 24, 2019

RE: GE – given the electoral mechanics, crucial that a GE happens after Oct 31 (assuming they can keep a nodeal Brexit off the table). Posted this on another thread, but for sure Lab/Libs are aware of the dangers of GE before 31 and the rewards of one after it:

UK poll wonkery – poll mentioned in ukpr comments:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/10093/comment-page-19#comments

This is a hypothetical poll, ie, ‘what if’ the election happens after Oct 31 and Brexit hasn’t happened yet. Bloody hell.

LAB: 25% (-3)
CON: 22% (-4)
LDEM: 21% (+1)
BREX: 20% (+3)
GRN: 5% (+1)

UK seat calculator (surely well beyond its design limits with this one) spits out:

CON 209
LAB 278
LIB 79
BP 13
GRN 1
SNP 48
Plaid 4

Same poll, but this time if held after 31, *if* a no-deal Brexit has happened:

CON: 37%
LAB: 26%
LDEM: 18%
BREX: 6%
GRN: 6%

the second of course would deliver a tory landslide. Christ and crutches, etc.

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8. CL - September 24, 2019

“The court has knowingly set out the UK’s core constitutional arrangements in as accessible a form as possible….
Second, the judgment shows how the court grappled with a complex legal problem so as to set out a new constitutional rule. The rule is: “a decision to prorogue Parliament (or to advise the monarch to prorogue Parliament) will be unlawful if the prorogation has the effect of frustrating or preventing, without reasonable justification, the ability of Parliament to carry out its constitutional functions as a legislature and as the body responsible for the supervision of the executive.” This has been fashioned not from any direct precedent, as there is no direct precedent, but from a careful analysis of other constitutional cases. It is a superb piece of practical jurisprudence.
Third, it is unanimous. Nobody expected this. This means that it has the greatest possible authority as a judgment and makes it difficult to attack as a politicised judgment. The supreme court has fulfilled its constitutional role with every judge onside.
And fourth, and wisely, the supreme court has only made a declaration of unlawfulness. They have not made any other order, like an injunction. They are instead returning the matter to the realm of politics, for parliament and the government to sort out. The judges’ job, for now, has been done.”
https://www.ft.com/content/c1ae7f0c-8bca-39b5-91a5-02a1a9494732

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9. Tim - September 24, 2019

So am I right in saying their parliament will be prorogued shortly anyhow ?

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WorldbyStorm - September 24, 2019

Looks difficult Tim at least politically and would probably lead to replay in Supreme Court

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Dermot M O Connor - September 24, 2019

As awkward a meeting with QE2 as one could imagine. Imagine the old bird will be flipping him the bird at this rate. Threaten to abdicate and put chucky3 on the throne, watch BJ soil his bullingdons.

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10. tafkaGW - September 25, 2019

I would recommend this Another Europe is Possible podcast, with one of the leading lawyers behind the anti-prorogation cases.

Twists in the tale that I wasn’t aware of include:

The government was (allegedly) using burner phones and Signal and (for some reason) Whatsapp to organise their real strategy around prorogation .i.e to push through a hard Brexit by any means possible. When some of this evidence was delivered late to the Supreme Court, they couldn’t get anyone in or around the cabinet to sign off on the witness statement. Allegedly because they knew that this would leave them open to perjury charges and imprisonment.

There is still a way that Alex de Pfeffel and the Mekon can deliver no-deal Brexit. They persuade idiots like Stephen Kinnock to vote for a deal on the 19th of October. They go the ERG and explain that this is the way to a no-deal Brexit and get their support. Same with the DUP or offer them more cash. After a succesful deal vote, there is then no time to go through the necessary legal steps to agree the agreement on the UK and the EU side. Result: crash-out.

It goes on…

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