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Four by-elections October 10, 2019

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Four coming up at the end of November and the Irish Times political podcast thought that Fianna Fáil were favourites for two, if not indeed three, and Fine Gael might get one. The thing is this doesn’t really impact on the balance within the Dáil. But the point was also made that some jokers in the pack might get through. Paul Gogarty was pointed to as one individual who might win a seat, the Green Party was also suggested as a likely winner if the larger parties might falter.

I’m not really sure about the constituencies involved so I’d be curious as to how people consider those analyses?

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1. Dermot M O Connor - October 10, 2019
2. WorldbyStorm - October 10, 2019

I’d love predictions! 🙂

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3. irishelectionliterature - October 11, 2019

I’d put FF favourites in three of the four. One thing that could stop them is a satisfactory Brexit deal being done.
Wexford – Hard to see Malcolm Byrne not winning, he’s high profile and is a very good candidate. FG have Verona Murphy of the Irish Road Haulage Association running, not sure of her popularity (Paul Kehoe or Michael D’Arcy won’t be bursting their backsides either to help).
Labour have George Lawlor, interesting to see how they fare without the Howlin name. Johnny Mythen of SF came close the last time out but lost his seat in the Local Elections.

Dublin-Fingal. Lorraine Clifford Lee of FF is favourite here. A Senator who polled well here the last time. Has a decent profile. James Reilly will be hoping to win for FG here. Labour are running Duncan Smith and he’ll do OK. The only other one with a chance is Joe O’Brien of The Greens who could be in with a shout if he polls well enough on the first count. Probably an FF win

Dublin Mid West- Really hard to call, Anyone from Emer Higgins of FG, Paul Gogarty (Ind), Peter Kavanagh (Green) , Shane Moynihan (FF) , Mark Ward (SF) ,Joanna Tuffy of Labour could win. I think it’s between Gogarty and Higgins myself.

Cork North Central – Padraig O’Sullivan of FF and Colm Burke of FG are probably the two battling this out, John Maher of Labour and Oliver Moran of the Greens could poll well. Think it’s an FF win.

Needless to say Turnout will have a big impact.

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irishelectionliterature - October 11, 2019

I wonder if Aontú will field candidates in the by-elections. No sign of candidates yet from them.

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